803
FXUS62 KGSP 072349
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
649 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT AND BRINGS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT A DRY AND
CHILLY TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEK. EXPECT CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THEN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 645 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE: WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AVERY
COUNTY AS WELL AS ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3,500 FEET IN YANCEY AND
MITCHELL COUNTIES FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM TUESDAY. A COLD RAIN
IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE SFC
HIGH WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SURFACE WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ABOVE 3,500
FEET IN THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS, SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM 2 TO 3.5 INCHES
ABOVE 3,500 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THUS,
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AVERY COUNTY AS
WELL AS ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3,500 FT IN YANCEY AND MITCHELL COUNTIES
FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM TUESDAY. THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS IN MITCHELL
AND YANCEY COUNTIES COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH
OF SNOWFALL MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. ELEVATIONS ABOVE
3,500 FT IN THE SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WILL SEE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO 1.5
INCHES. HOWEVER, LOCATIONS IN THE SMOKIES ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER
COULD SEE TOTALS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE REST OF THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SO MAINLY A COLD
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THESE LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT SNOW
MAY BLOW DOWN THE VALLEYS AND/OR SOME WET-BULBING MAY OCCUR EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS (MAINLY IN THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-40) WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME BRIEF SNOW TO MIX IN WITH
RAIN AT TIMES. IT'S NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR WET-BULBING
TO OCCUR SOUTH OF I-40 IN THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT AS
SOME OF THE CAMS AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE DEPICT THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER,
WITH THE COLD AIR CHASING THE MOISTURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
CONFIDENCE ON SNOW MAKING IT THAT FAR SOUTH REMAINS VERY LOW AT
THIS TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS IF WET-BULBING DOES OCCUR SO OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AS ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL
BE WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA (LESS THAN AN INCH). WITH CLOUD
COVER LINGERING THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY, LOWS WILL END UP A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE COOLER THANKS TO BOTH
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP, ENDING UP ~10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
1) LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
2) BREEZY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
AS OF 1205 PM EST SUNDAY: MONDAY NIGHT, THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
LINGERING SNOWFALL SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THOUGH THE
BULK OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW BURSTS OF FLAKES
STILL OCCURRING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY IN THE NC
PIEDMONT. THE COLDER AIR KEEPS SNOW PROBABILITIES IN THIS AREA
AROUND 10-20% THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE WINTER MIX TAPERS
OFF, GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SIGNAL INCREASED WIND SPEEDS THE
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE WEATHER QUIET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. MEANWHILE, A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CHURNS OVER CANADA
AND DIPS SOUTHWARD, CREATING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT CLOSER TO
THE CWA. CURRENTLY, THERE IS ABOUT A 30-40% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS
GREATER THAN 35 MPH AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
WILL LIKELY CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE LOW DIPS. IF IT
DROPS FURTHER SOUTH, THE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE. AT THIS TIME,
WINDS REMAIN WELL BELOW ANY WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
2) A POTENTIAL COLDER PERIOD NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AS OF 1215 PM EST SUNDAY: PICKING UP ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CHURNS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, BRINGING A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
EVEN DRIER IN TERMS OF PRECIP, SO A SPOTTY POP OF 15-20% THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ANY GUSTY WINDS ALSO LOOK TO
DIMINISH BY THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM LINES UP FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A STRENGTHENING TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AND BRINGS NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS A TYPICAL DEEP
WINTER PATTERN OCCURRING MUCH EARLIER IN THE SEASON, WHICH CAN
SIGNAL FOR A POTENTIAL NW SNOW EVENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, A
LOT CAN AND WILL CHANGE FROM NOW THROUGH THE POTENTIAL EVENT.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING DRIER AS THE STRONG CP AIRMASS BREAKS
CONTAINMENT FROM THE NORTH AND PLUNGES INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS. THE POTENTIAL COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, BUT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS RETAINED ONCE THE
COLD, DRY AIR ARRIVES. SO FAR, GUIDANCE IS TRENDING MORE TOWARD A
DRIER FRONT WITH REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES. IT REMAINS TOO FAR OUT ON
THE HORIZON TO GATHER MUCH OF THE DETAILS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,
EXPECT DAILY HIGHS TO BE NEAR NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COMES THROUGH, DIPPING TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: IFR CIGS NVER COMPLETELY CLEARED OUT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND SOUTHERN NC PIEDMONT. IN GENERAL, THESE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND AGAIN, WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE, AS
WELL, ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES MANAGED TO CLEAR OUT. NOT EXPECTING AS
WIDESPREAD OF LIFR/VLIFR AS LAST NIGHT, BUT STILL COULD SEE 1/2SM OR
LOWER VSBY AND/OR 100-200 FT CIGS. CONDITIONS MAY ACTUALLY IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY IN THE 10-12Z TIME FRAME, AS AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND SCATTERS OUT SOME OF THE FOG. WINDS
ALSO EXPECTED TO PICK UP OUT OF THE NE MONDAY MORNING. FROM THERE,
GUIDANCE SHOWS BACK EDGE OF PRECIP MAY CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OF RA/SN
OR ALL SN IN THE NW PIEDMONT OF NC. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD
A PROB30 TO KHKY FOR LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTN. SOME GUIDANCE EVEN
HAS A CHANGEOVER AS FAR SOUTH AS KCLT. EVEN IF THIS DOES HAPPEN,
IT WOULD BE OCCURRING AROUND MIDDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S. SO RISK OF IMPACTS IS LOW, BUT NOT ZERO. PRECIP
SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTN OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH CIGS IMPROVE. FOR NOW, WILL BUMP UP CIGS
TO LOW-MVFR. HOWEVER, IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY EVENING
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
OUTLOOK: RESTRICTIONS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NW FLOW PRECIP MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER ELSEWHERE.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR NCZ033-049-050.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...AR/ARK
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...ARK
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