490
FXUS62 KGSP 080623
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
123 AM EST MON DEC 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF TWO COLD
FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK, ULTIMATELY BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1:15 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST
OF THE NW PIEDMONT AND CHARLOTTE AREA THRU 7 AM THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG HAS FORMED MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-77, AND MAY
CONTINUE TO EXPAND, AS CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE. THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY GOES UNTIL 12Z/7AM, BUT VISIBILITIES MAY IMPROVE
BEFORE THEN, AS MID CLOUDS THICKEN FROM THE WEST AND RAIN MOVES
IN RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK. WILL ADJUST AS NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
AVERY COUNTY AS WELL AS ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3,500 FEET IN YANCEY
AND MITCHELL COUNTIES UNTIL 1 AM TUESDAY. A MOSTLY COLD RAIN IS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE SFC HIGH
WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SFC WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO RETURN FROM
WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
FALL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ABOVE 3,500 FT IN THE NC MOUNTAINS,
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. STILL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ABOVE 3,500 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHEST PEAKS. THUS, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR AVERY COUNTY AS WELL AS ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3,500 FT IN YANCEY
AND MITCHELL COUNTIES UNTIL 1 AM TUESDAY. THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS IN
MITCHELL AND YANCEY COUNTIES COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO
AN INCH OF SNOW THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3,500 FT
IN THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NC MOUNTAINS WILL GET SOME SNOW, BUT IT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER, LOCATIONS IN THE
SMOKIES ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER COULD SEE TOTALS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS MOSTLY ABOVE
3500 FT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE REST OF THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, SO MAINLY A COLD
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THESE LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT SNOW
MAY BLOW DOWN THE VALLEYS AND/OR SOME WET-BULBING MAY OCCUR EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS (MAINLY IN THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-40) WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME BRIEF SNOW TO MIX IN WITH RAIN AT
TIMES. IT IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR WET-BULBING TO
OCCUR SOUTH OF I-40 IN THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT AS SOME OF THE CAMS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER, WITH THE COLD AIR CHASING
THE MOISTURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, CONFIDENCE ON SNOW MAKING IT THAT
FAR SOUTH REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS, NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE MTNS IF WET-BULBING DOES OCCUR.
OTHERWISE, WITH CLOUD COVER LINGERING THRU DAYBREAK TODAY, LOWS SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR-NORMAL THIS MORNING. WITH THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP TODAY, HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
1) BREEZY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGETOPS.
2) SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE TN BORDER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
AS OF 1233 AM EST MONDAY: NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL FOR THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK, WHICH SHOULD BE THE RELATIVELY QUIET PART OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. WE WILL START OUT TUESDAY WITH A COLD HIGH
PRESSURE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT TEN
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS. BUT, THE SFC HIGH IS
STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A NRN
STREAM CLIPPER MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. STILL
LOOKING AT BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION DURING
PEAK HEATING. THE GFS SHOWS THE AXIS OF A 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVERHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON, FOR EXAMPLE, AND MODEL FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING WELL UP ABOVE THAT LAYER. THIS SUGGESTS
THAT MOMENTUM TRANSFER COULD ULTIMATELY BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING
ADVISORY-LEVEL GUSTS DOWN TO THE SFC OVER THE MTNS, ESPECIALLY
THE RIDGETOPS. THUS, THE MODEL BLEND IS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT TO
BE UNDERDONE WITH THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL. FORTUNATELY, THE WSW
FLOW WILL HELP KEEP THE RH IN CHECK, SO FIRE WX IS NOT AS GREAT A
CONCERN AS IT COULD BE. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND CLOSE TO NORMAL. AFTER
THE SHORT WAVE PASSES LATE IN THE DAY, THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS SOME LOW LEVEL RH MOVING IN FROM THE WNW INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE A QUICK SHOT OF NW FLOW POTENTIAL, THOUGH,
WITH THE BETTER AND DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING PAST TO THE NORTH. WE
WILL CARRY A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON THE TN BORDER AND A
SMALL ACCUMULATION IN SOME SPOTS. LOWS WILL ALSO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOW CONFIDENCE IN WINTRY PRECIP NEAR THE TN BORDER ASSOCIATED
WITH PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW LATE IN THE WEEK.
2) A POTENTIAL COLDER PERIOD NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AS OF 1247 AM EST MONDAY: THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS GRADUALLY TRENDED
TOWARD A DRIER SCENARIO FOR THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK. AFTER AN
INITIAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION, THE BULK OF THURSDAY LOOKS
FAIRLY QUIET WITH THE UPPER TROF AXIS OVERHEAD AND WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH. THIS WILL NOT BE THE BOUNDARY WE WANT
TO TELL YOU ABOUT. THE BRISK WNW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS MERELY ON THE ORDER OF FIVE
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EAST OF THE MTNS. THERE COULD BE PERIODIC
SURGES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THAT COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
THE TN BORDER, BUT CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
IS MOISTURE-STARVED. THUS, CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR ANY PRECIP, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS GOING UP THAT AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. STILL LOOKS LIKE A MORE SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONT WILL ULTIMATELY MOVE THROUGH OVER THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND, USHERING IN A MORE ARCTIC AIR MASS FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE TYPICAL DEAD-OF-WINTER-TYPE
STUFF. THAT SPELLS TEMPS RUNNING AROUND FIFTEEN DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 40S EVEN WITH FULL SUN.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT IFR TO PERIODS OF LIFR CIGS TO PERSIST
OVER THE FCST AREA THRU MOST OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY WHERE
SKIES MANAGE TO CLEAR. STILL NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE AS WIDESPREAD
AS LAST NIGHT, BUT MOST SITES COULD SEE 1/2 SM OR LOWER VISBY THRU
MID-MORNING. CONDITIONS MAY ACTUALLY IMPROVE SOMEWHAT IN THE 10 TO
14Z TIME FRAME, AS AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST AND SCT OUT SOME OF THE FOG. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP
OUT OF THE NE THIS MORNING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP MAY CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OF RA/SN
OR ALL SN IN THE NW PIEDMONT OF NC. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP
A PROB30 AT KHKY FOR -RASN INTO THE EARLY AFTN. SOME GUIDANCE EVEN
HAS A CHANGEOVER AS FAR SOUTH AS KCLT. IF THIS DOES HAPPEN, IT WOULD
BE OCCURRING AROUND MIDDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
SO THE RISK OF IMPACTS IS LOW, BUT NOT ZERO. OTHERWISE, PRECIP SHOULD
TAPER OFF BY THE EARLY AFTN OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. SOME OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS CIGS IMPROVING TO MVFR BY THE LATE AFTN, BUT BASED ON
THE OVERALL TRENDS, I THINK IT'S MORE LIKELY THAT MOST TERMINALS WILL
REMAIN IFR THRU THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK: DRYING HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NW FLOW
PRECIP MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
BUT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER ELSEWHERE.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ033-049-
050.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-
056-057-069-071-072-082.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JPT
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