191
FXUS62 KGSP 090221
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
921 PM EST MON DEC 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF TWO COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, ULTIMATELY BRINGING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 915 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AVERY
COUNTY AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3,500 FEET IN YANCEY AND MITCHELL
COUNTIES UNTIL 1 AM TUESDAY.
WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM, EVEN THOUGH
SNOW HAS LARGELY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE WELL INTO
THE 20S IN THE ADVISORY AREA, SO ANY MELTED SNOW OR LINGERING SNOW
COVER WILL RESULT IN SLIPPERY ROADS THRU THE REST OF THE EVENING. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS) WILL LIKELY REPLACE THE ADVISORY
WHEN IT EXPIRES FOR LINGERING BLACK ICE THRU TUESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
BUT SLIPPERY ROADS WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT
BRINGING DRIER AND COLDER CONDITIONS. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL
(OR REMAIN) BELOW FREEZING, SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS WILL BE A
CONCERN FOR THE EVENING AND MORNING COMMUTES ACROSS AREAS THAT
RECEIVED ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. AN SPS MAY NEED BE ISSUED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY
THIN OUT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP BELOW
FREEZING AREA-WIDE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL END UP ~5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 3: DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY MID TO LATE MORNING
TUESDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALLOWING THE CONCERN FOR SLIPPERY
ROADS TO DIMINISH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GSP FORECAST AREA KEEPING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS AROUND FOR
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT THROUGHOUT
THE DAY (WE WILL FINALLY GET TO SEE SUNSHINE), HIGHS WILL REMAIN
~10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AREA-WIDE. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WINDS PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
2) MOSTLY DRY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.
AS OF 1210 PM EST MONDAY: THE SHORT TERM LOOKS MOSTLY QUIET WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WIND. A MORE TYPICAL
WINTER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A STRONG HIGH OFF THE WEST COAST,
CREATING NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE THE EASTERN CONUS. ON WEDNESDAY, A
STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CHURNS OVER CANADA AS A SECOND, WEAKER
LOW SPINS OFF TOWARD THE SOUTH. CURRENT GUIDANCE BRINGS THIS LOW
FURTHER SOUTH, INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR WINDY CONDITIONS. THIS
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO GO RIGHT OVER THE CWA. A SPEED
MAX EMBEDDED IN THE GENERAL FLOW, LOOKS TO MAXIMIZE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA. AT THIS TIME, GUIDANCE HAS
A 40-50% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 45 MPH AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WOULD BE RIGHT ABOUT WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA, SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY ONE WOULD BE NEEDED. CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING ON WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH OR GREATER AS THE CHANCES ALSO
TICK UP INTO THE 50-60% RANGE ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR. AS FOR PRECIPITATION, THE BETTER NEWS IS GUIDANCE IS
COMING IN MUCH DRIER AS THE PERSISTENT TROUGH STARTS TO RECEDE
NORTHWARD, KEEPING THE STINTS OF ADVANCING DPVA FURTHER NORTH. SO,
THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLD FRONT IS ALMOST COMPLETELY GONE, MEANING
WINTER WEATHER CHANCES HAVE ALSO DECREASED. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
(15-30%) THAT A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IF ANYTHING FALLS,
THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE OF SNOW AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 0.01 INCH.
ADDITIONALLY, THIS MEANS THE COLDER TEMPS THAT WERE IN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE HAS NOW PUSHED FURTHER INTO THE NEXT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
1) SNOW CHANCES OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ARE
DECREASING .
2) A POTENTIAL COLDER PERIOD TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AS OF 1220 PM EST MONDAY: BY FRIDAY, THE NW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
LOCKED IN FOR THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED AND BRINGS
THE BETTER FLOW NORTHWARD, KEEPING THE CWA OUT OF THE MAIN SHOW. AT
THE SURFACE, THE COLDER AIR LOOKS TO ALSO BE MUCH SLOWER BREAKING
OUT OF CANADA AND SPILLING INTO THE U.S. THIS ALSO KEEPS THE
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, BEFORE DIPPING.
AS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THIS HAS ALSO DRASTICALLY CHANGED.
THE HIGHEST POPS ARE FOR THE TN/NC BORDER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS AND THOSE ARE CAPPED AT SLIGHT (15-30%). IF TEMPERATURES ARE
COLD ENOUGH AND THERE IS ANY SURFACE MOISTURE LINGERING, THERE COULD
BE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SOME OF THIS MAY
LINGER INTO FRIDAY BUT CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THERE
WON'T BE ANY IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER. CURRENT PROBABILITIES FOR
SNOW AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 0.01 INCH ARE LESS THAN 20%, AND THIS IS
MAINLY AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS. SO, ALL IN ALL, THE WINTER WEATHER
CHANCES ARE PLUMMETING AND A QUIETER PERIOD IS STARTING TO EMERGE.
THIS STILL NEEDS TO BE EVALUATED AS ANY SHIFT OF THE MAIN FLOW ALOFT
COULD BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN QUIET WEATHER AND INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU THE
NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE, AS GUIDANCE
SEEMS TOO LOW ON CIGS COMPARED TO LATEST METARS. FOR NOW, STILL
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR TO IFR CIGS FROM LATE EVENING THRU DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. NE WIND SHOULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT, BUT WILL WEAKEN,
ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT TO A FEW VFR-LEVEL CLOUDS BY 18Z, AS A
PATCH OF CIRRUS STREAMS BY. WIND WILL BE LGT/VRB IN THE MORNING,
THEN TOGGLE TO SW IN THE AFTN AND REMAIN LIGHT.
OUTLOOK: GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY
SW WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. NW FLOW PRECIP MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER ELSEWHERE.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ033-049-
050.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...AR/ARK
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...ARK
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