117
FXUS62 KGSP 130615
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
115 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY, USHERING IN BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES TO START
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUND BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 100 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE #1: WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WITH DRY CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ALOFT WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUT
OF THE WEST. DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT (THANKS TO W/WSW 850 MB
FLOW), WITH HIGHS ENDING UP AROUND 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL
SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
KEY MESSAGE #2: RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, 00Z CAMS ARE
NOT VERY EXCITED, ONLY SHOWING ANEMIC COVERAGE AT BEST SOUTH OF I-
85, WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. THUS,
BLENDED IN SOME OF THE DRIER GUIDANCE WHICH LED TO CHANCE POPS
MAINLY SOUTH OF 85.
KEY MESSAGE #3: NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER WITH ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED (WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA).
NORTHWEST FLOW PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER TONIGHT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AS
TEMPERATURES FALL NEAR/BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, RANGING FROM
A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH.
KEY MESSAGE #4: GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE TONIGHT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS LATE TONIGHT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH BREEZY WINDS DEVELOPING EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. GUSTS STILL APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS. GUSTS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 20 TO 35 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS, WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS
SEEING GUSTS FROM 35 TO 45 MPH. THE HIGHEST RIDGE TOPS MAY SEE GUSTS
FROM 45 TO 50 MPH. WIND GUSTS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE FROM
15 TO 20 MPH.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1220 AM EST SATURDAY:
KEY MESSAGE 1: ARCTIC FRONT BRINGS GUSTY WINDS WITH BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS OVERTAKES THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING, BRINGING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND THE COLDEST AIR TEMPERATURES
OF THE SEASON. FOR SUNDAY, LATEST DATA KEEPS THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH A CHANCE (50-60%) OF GUSTS HIGHER THAN 40
MPH OCCURRING AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THE CONFIDENCE FOR WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 30-39 MPH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MOUNTAINS HAS
INCREASED AS THE CHANCE IS 70-80%. THIS CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS
CRITERIA FOR A WIND ADVISORY OUT OF REACH FOR NOW. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH INTO MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, THESE WINDS
USHER IN BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE
ENTIRE AREA DROPS INTO THE MID TO LOWER TEENS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
AND SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE ADDED WIND GUSTS,
TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER, AS WIND CHILLS LOOK TO DIP BELOW
ZERO AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO
INCREASING THAT THESE COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS COULD PROMPT THE
ISSUANCE OF A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS, THE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AS COLD AND AT THIS
POINT, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR A PRODUCT BEING ISSUED. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND START TO
RECOVER.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1210 AM EST FRIDAY:
KEY MESSAGE 1: TEMPERATURES REBOUND AND DRY CONDITIONS SETTLE IN
BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD AND SUPPRESSES PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. BY TUESDAY, NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MOST
OF THE CONUS, REINFORCING THE QUIETER WEATHER AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THE SURFACE HIGH STAYS PUT AND CONTINUES TO CHURN OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. PRECIP CHANCES START TO INCREASE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT, AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS
TO DEVELOP AN UPPER LOW THAT COULD BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR THE AREA, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AS TOO MANY VARIABLES
ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE. EVEN WITH THE CURRENT GUIDANCE, QPF RESPONSE
LOOKS MINIMAL. THIS NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
WHERE THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETS UP. A MIGRATION
WESTWARD DECREASES RAIN CHANCES AND A SHIFT EASTWARD COULD INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUND AFTER STARTING THE WEEK
WITH FRIGID AIR AND BY MIDWEEK, SHOULD BE BACK TO NORMAL OR EVEN A
TICK HIGHER.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR AND DRY THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD WITH
SOME OCCASIONAL CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. SOME VFR STRATOCU WILL DEVELOP AT KAND AND KCLT TOWARDS THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING
IN SPEED THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTION AT KAVL WILL START OUT SE,
TOGGLING NW CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. WINDS AT KAVL MAY BRIEFLY TOGGLE
W/WSW LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING BACK NW THIS EVENING. WIND
DIRECTION EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE N/NE THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE
TURNING S/SW LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN NW AT KCLT EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK: CIG RESTRICTIONS MAY RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MID-
MORNING SUNDAY, MAINLY AT KAVL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT.
GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...AR
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