024
FXUS62 KGSP 140650
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
150 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TODAY, USHERING IN BITTERLY
COLD TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUND BY
MIDWEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY INCREASE RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 130 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE #1: LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE NC/TN
BORDER THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS.
AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE EASTERN US TODAY BEFORE PUSHING
OFF THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS WILL ALLOW NW FLOW PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
OUTSIDE OF SOME SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER WILL START OUT AS RAIN BEFORE
QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP NEAR/BELOW
FREEZING. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND WELL BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, WITH MOST LOCATIONS ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER SEEING
UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL. HOWEVER, ISOLATED LOCATIONS ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS COULD SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM 1.5 TO 2
INCHES. ISSUED AN SPS ACROSS THE NC/TN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH 9 AM
EST TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOWFALL AND SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE #2: GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT
ALLOWING GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
BUT OVERALL GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
GUSTS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE FROM
ROUGHLY 25 TO 35 MPH, WITH GUSTS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH ELEVATIONS ABOVE
3,500 FEET. ALTHOUGH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE 4,500-
5,000 FEET, OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY AS THIS TIME SINCE
THESE GUSTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. GUSTS EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 MPH.
KEY MESSAGE #3: COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR WIND CHILLS
ACROSS ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3,500 FEET IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CHARLOTTE METRO FROM 5
PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 9 AM EST MONDAY.
GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO BITTER WIND
CHILLS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND COLD WIND CHILLS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO MID-MORNING MONDAY. MAINTAINED
THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 3,500 FT AS THESE AREAS WILL SEE WIND CHILLS FROM 5-
15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO WITH THE HIGHEST PEAKS SEEING WIND CHILLS AS
LOW AS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA (>5 BELOW ZERO). OPTED TO ISSUE A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MECKLENBURG, CABARRUS, UNION (NC), AND GASTON
COUNTIES AS THESE AREAS COULD SEE WIND CHILLS FROM FROM 6-10
DEGREES. NORTHEAST GEORGIA, THE SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE AND THE REST
OF THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS WILL SEE WIND CHILLS
REMAIN ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA SO DID NOT EXPAND THE ADVISORY ACROSS
THESE AREAS. WIND CHILLS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THESE AREAS
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE #4: TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT RATHER THAN WARM UP.
WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY INSTEAD OF REPRESENTING A
DIURNAL CURVE LIKE WE TYPICALLY SEE. LOWS THIS MORNING WILL END UP
~7-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THANKS TO CLOUD
COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION NOT FILTERING INTO THIS PART OF THE
FOREAST AREA UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE. MORNING LOWS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WILL END UP NEAR NORMAL TO JUST BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL OCCUR EARLY
THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY DROP THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGHS WILL END UP ~10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND THE LOWER TO UPPER TEENS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, LOWS
TONIGHT WILL END UP ~15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1230 AM EST SUNDAY:
KEY MESSAGE: COLD START TO THE WEEK BEFORE A WARM UP BEGINS TUESDAY
WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING.
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE MONDAY MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING ABOVE FREEZING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT STARTS TO
MODIFY. ALOFT, THE NW FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT BY TUESDAY,
REINFORCING A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD FOR THE SHORT TERM. WINDS AT THE
SURFACE TURN SW ON MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP TO MODIFY THE
AIRMASS. GUIDANCE ALSO HAS MUCH LIGHTER WINDS, KEEPING WIND CHILLS
AT A MINIMUM FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY LOOK TO BE 10-
15 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE START OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1220 AM EST SUNDAY:
KEY MESSAGE: TEMPERATURES REBOUND AND DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE
BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD AND SUPPRESSES PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. BY TUESDAY NIGHT, NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
MOST OF THE CONUS, REINFORCES THE QUIETER WEATHER AND DRY
CONDITIONS. A SURFACE HIGH STAYS PUT AND CONTINUES TO REMAIN
CENTERED OFF THE COASTLINE. HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS TO HINT
AT MULTIPLE UPPER LOWS DEVELOPING OVER CANADA, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH AT THE END OF THE WEEK. UNLIKE THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS, THIS FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE MUCH LESS OF AN IMPACT ON
THE AREA, ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE EXTREMES. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (15-30%) OF PRECIP, MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS THESE STILL DEPENDS
ON WHERE THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETS UP. FOR THE
POTENTIAL FRONT, WITH TEMPS MORE SEASONABLE, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE
MAIN P-TYPE WOULD BE RAIN, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF FROZEN
PRECIP AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS IS ON DAY 7, SO THE FORECAST
WILL CHANGE AND NOTHING IS LOCKED IN. DESPITE THE CHANCE FOR A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AND MILD.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: LOW-END VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS BEFORE LIFTING
AROUND DAYBREAK. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF -SHRA DEVELOP PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK AT KCLT, KAVL, AND KAND SO WENT WITH PROB30S FOR THESE
TERMINALS. DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN JUST AFTER SUNRISE FOR
TERMINALS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH SKC EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. KAVL MAY SEE MVFR CIGS LINGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE VFR RETURNS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTION EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL START OUT SW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, TURNING NW
BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND DAYBREAK. WINDS AT KAVL WILL BE WSW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, TURNING NW BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD BECOMING GUSTY,
ESPECIALLY AT KAVL. KAVL WILL SEE GUSTS FROM ~25-35 KTS TODAY, WITH
GUSTS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS RANGING FROM ~20-25 KTS. WIND SPEEDS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING,
WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. KAVL SHOULD SEE LOW-END GUSTS LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE
06Z TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE TONIGHT. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES AND POSSIBLY RESTRICTIONS
BY THURSDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NCZ033-048>052-058-059-070>072-082.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...AR
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