037
FXUS62 KGSP 141121
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
621 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TODAY, USHERING IN BITTERLY
COLD TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUND BY
MIDWEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY INCREASE RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 620 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE #1: LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE NC/TN
BORDER THIS MORNING.
AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE EASTERN US TODAY BEFORE PUSHING
OFF THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS IS LEADING TO NW FLOW SNOW ALONG THE NC/TN
BORDER THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS NOTED ELSEWHERE
OUTSIDE OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN TRACKING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND WELL BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH MOST LOCATIONS ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER SEEING UP TO 1
INCH OF SNOWFALL. HOWEVER, ISOLATED LOCATIONS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS COULD SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES.
ISSUED AN SPS ACROSS THE NC/TN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH 9 AM EST TO
ACCOUNT FOR SNOWFALL AND SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE #2: GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING
GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS, BUT
OVERALL GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTS
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE FROM ROUGHLY
25 TO 35 MPH, WITH GUSTS FROM 30 TO 45 MPH ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3,500
FEET. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS KAVL WAS GUSTING TO 45 MPH EARLIER
THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE 4,500-
5,000 FEET, OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY AS THIS TIME SINCE
THESE GUSTS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. GUSTS
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 MPH.
KEY MESSAGE #3: COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR WIND CHILLS
ACROSS ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3,500 FEET IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CHARLOTTE METRO FROM 5
PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 9 AM EST MONDAY.
GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO BITTER WIND
CHILLS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND COLD WIND CHILLS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO MID-MORNING MONDAY. MAINTAINED
THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 3,500 FT AS THESE AREAS WILL SEE WIND CHILLS FROM 5-
15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO WITH THE HIGHEST PEAKS SEEING WIND CHILLS AS
LOW AS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA (>5 BELOW ZERO). OPTED TO ISSUE A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MECKLENBURG, CABARRUS, UNION (NC), AND GASTON
COUNTIES AS THESE AREAS COULD SEE WIND CHILLS FROM FROM 6-10
DEGREES. NORTHEAST GEORGIA, THE SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE AND THE REST
OF THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS WILL SEE WIND CHILLS
REMAIN ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA SO DID NOT EXPAND THE ADVISORY ACROSS
THESE AREAS. WIND CHILLS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THESE AREAS
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE #4: TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT RATHER THAN WARM UP.
WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY INSTEAD OF REPRESENTING A
DIURNAL CURVE LIKE WE TYPICALLY SEE. HIGHS WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY DROP THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHS
WILL END UP ~15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS AND A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE. WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LOWER TO UPPER TEENS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS, LOWS TONIGHT WILL END UP ~15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1230 AM EST SUNDAY:
KEY MESSAGE: COLD START TO THE WEEK BEFORE A WARM UP BEGINS TUESDAY
WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING.
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE MONDAY MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING ABOVE FREEZING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT STARTS TO
MODIFY. ALOFT, THE NW FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT BY TUESDAY,
REINFORCING A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD FOR THE SHORT TERM. WINDS AT THE
SURFACE TURN SW ON MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP TO MODIFY THE
AIRMASS. GUIDANCE ALSO HAS MUCH LIGHTER WINDS, KEEPING WIND CHILLS
AT A MINIMUM FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY LOOK TO BE 10-
15 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE START OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1220 AM EST SUNDAY:
KEY MESSAGE: TEMPERATURES REBOUND AND DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE
BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD AND SUPPRESSES PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. BY TUESDAY NIGHT, NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
MOST OF THE CONUS, REINFORCES THE QUIETER WEATHER AND DRY
CONDITIONS. A SURFACE HIGH STAYS PUT AND CONTINUES TO REMAIN
CENTERED OFF THE COASTLINE. HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS TO HINT
AT MULTIPLE UPPER LOWS DEVELOPING OVER CANADA, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH AT THE END OF THE WEEK. UNLIKE THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS, THIS FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE MUCH LESS OF AN IMPACT ON
THE AREA, ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE EXTREMES. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (15-30%) OF PRECIP, MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS THESE STILL DEPENDS
ON WHERE THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETS UP. FOR THE
POTENTIAL FRONT, WITH TEMPS MORE SEASONABLE, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE
MAIN P-TYPE WOULD BE RAIN, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF FROZEN
PRECIP AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS IS ON DAY 7, SO THE FORECAST
WILL CHANGE AND NOTHING IS LOCKED IN. DESPITE THE CHANCE FOR A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AND MILD.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: LOW-END VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH
DAYBREAK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, LIFTING TO VFR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND BECOMING SKC BY MID-MORNING. MVFR CIGS
WILL LINGER AT KAVL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE GOING VFR. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SOME
BRIEF -RA AT KAVL EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND DIRECTION EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WILL START OUT SW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, TURNING NW
BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND DAYBREAK. WINDS AT KAVL WILL REMAIN NW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
TODAY BECOMING GUSTY, ESPECIALLY AT KAVL. KAVL WILL SEE GUSTS FROM
~25-35+ KTS TODAY, WITH GUSTS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS RANGING FROM ~17-
25+ KTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING, WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY
THE LATE EVENING HOURS. KAVL SHOULD SEE LOW-END GUSTS LINGER THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING ~06Z. WIND DIRECTION EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WILL TOGGLE MORE N THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: DRY HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH MID-
WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES AND POSSIBLY
RESTRICTIONS BY THURSDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NCZ033-048>052-058-059-070>072-082.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...AR
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