652
FXUS62 KGSP 141753
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1253 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT TONIGHT, BRINGING BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
INTO MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY REBOUND BY MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES RETURN
WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1235 PM SUNDAY: ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW A VERY DRY AND
COLD AIR MASS TO CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE ONLY LINGERING CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON IS SOME NW
FLOW STRATOCU NEAR THE TN/NC BORDER, BUT THIS IS QUICKLY ERODING
AND SHOULD BE GONE BY MID-AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE INDICATES ACCELERATION
OF NW WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER THIS EVENING AS INVERSION
BEGINS SETTING UP OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH AN INCREASINGLY
STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNAL. SURFACE WINDS ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE FOR A WINDOW OF A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY
ON THE LEEWARD SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT. FORECAST GUSTS
ARE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT ISSUANCE OF A SMALL WIND ADVISORY FOR
AVERY COUNTY AS WELL AS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF BURKE COUNTY...WHERE
GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH APPEAR LIKELY. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER FARTHER
SOUTH ALONG THE ESCARPMENT (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER
PEAKS), BUT GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE BLACK MOUNTAIN AREA. OTHERWISE, THE COLD WEATHER WILL BE
THE MAIN STORY, WITH A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINING IN EFFECT
FOR MAINLY THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS, AS WELL AS A
SMALL PART OF THE NC PIEDMONT IN THE CHARLOTTE AREA...WHERE THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR WIND CHILLS TO DIP TO AROUND 10 ABOVE FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO TONIGHT. FORECAST WIND CHILL VALUES OTHERWISE REMAIN
TOO HIGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY IN OTHER AREAS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
ALMOST 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY, WITH FORECAST MAXES AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO,
BUT WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE MORNING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1220 PM EST SUNDAY:
KEY MESSAGE: A QUICK WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AS A
MODERATING ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC UNDER
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS WILL START OUT CHILLY TUESDAY
MORNING, BUT REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL FOR AFTN HIGHS UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY AS
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE RIPPLES THRU THE REGION. NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE
EXPECTED FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE. TEMPS WILL BOTTOM
OUT NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM EST SUNDAY:
KEY MESSAGE: RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY AND
SWING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH. THIS
TREND RESULTS IN A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TAP OUT OF THE GULF
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST. POPS RAMP
UP TO THURSDAY AFTN IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT, RANGING FROM LIKELY IN THE PIEDMONT TO CATEGORICAL
IN THE MOUNTAINS. QPF LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT WITH THE FRONT BEING
QUICK-MOVING. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP AS JUST RAIN. BUT COLD AIR WILL START TO SLIP IN EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING JUST AS PRECIP TAPERS OFF, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS BEFORE DRYING OUT
COMPLETELY LATE MORNING. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. THE
AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS RELATIVELY MILD, WITH TEMPS REMAINING
NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY AND BACK ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS
ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON WHETHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST NBM HAS 20-40% POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY,
BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VERY DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD, RESULTING IN
VFR/GENERALLY SKC CONDITIONS. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS POSSIBLE AT KAVL, AND MORE LIKE
25 KTS OR SO AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. SPEEDS BEGIN DIMINISHING AT
SUNSET, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY ABATING BY LATE EVENING. MEANWHILE,
DIRECTIONS WILL STEADILY TURN TOWARD THE NE AT MOST SITES TONIGHT,
WITH LIGHT/VRBL CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK. LIGHT SW WINDS
MAY THEN DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: DRY HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES AND
POSSIBLY RESTRICTIONS WED NIGHT/THURSDAY, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING FOR FRIDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ033-503.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-070>072-082.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JDL
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