248
FXUS62 KGSP 142358
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
658 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT TONIGHT, BRINGING BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
INTO MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY REBOUND BY MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES RETURN
WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 650 PM EST SUNDAY: GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE WITH WINDCHILL VALUES
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS, AND SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS, WITH BELOW ZERO
VALUES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE ARE SIGNS OF WINDS SUBSIDING,
BUT GUSTS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. OTHERWISE,
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MADE BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST MODEL TRENDS.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW A VERY DRY AND COLD AIR MASS TO
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
INDICATES ACCELERATION OF NW WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
THIS EVENING AS INVERSION BEGINS SETTING UP OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH AN INCREASINGLY STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNAL.
SURFACE WINDS ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FOR A WINDOW OF A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY ON THE LEEWARD SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE ESCARPMENT. FORECAST GUSTS ARE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT ISSUANCE
OF A SMALL WIND ADVISORY FOR AVERY COUNTY AS WELL AS THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS OF BURKE COUNTY...WHERE GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH APPEAR
LIKELY. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE ESCARPMENT
(WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER PEAKS), BUT GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE BLACK MOUNTAIN AREA. OTHERWISE,
THE COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN STORY, WITH A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR MAINLY THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE
NC MOUNTAINS, AS WELL AS A SMALL PART OF THE NC PIEDMONT IN THE
CHARLOTTE AREA...WHERE THE FORECAST CALLS FOR WIND CHILLS TO DIP TO
AROUND 10 ABOVE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO TONIGHT. FORECAST WIND CHILL
VALUES OTHERWISE REMAIN TOO HIGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY IN OTHER
AREAS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE ALMOST 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE COLD
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY, WITH FORECAST MAXES AROUND 15
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO, BUT WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED, WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL QUICKLY INCREASE ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE
MORNING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1220 PM EST SUNDAY:
KEY MESSAGE: A QUICK WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AS A
MODERATING ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC UNDER
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS WILL START OUT CHILLY TUESDAY
MORNING, BUT REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL FOR AFTN HIGHS UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY AS
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE RIPPLES THRU THE REGION. NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE
EXPECTED FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE. TEMPS WILL BOTTOM
OUT NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM EST SUNDAY:
KEY MESSAGE: RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY AND
SWING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH. THIS
TREND RESULTS IN A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TAP OUT OF THE GULF
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST. POPS RAMP
UP TO THURSDAY AFTN IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT, RANGING FROM LIKELY IN THE PIEDMONT TO CATEGORICAL
IN THE MOUNTAINS. QPF LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT WITH THE FRONT BEING
QUICK-MOVING. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP AS JUST RAIN. BUT COLD AIR WILL START TO SLIP IN EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING JUST AS PRECIP TAPERS OFF, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS BEFORE DRYING OUT
COMPLETELY LATE MORNING. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. THE
AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS RELATIVELY MILD, WITH TEMPS REMAINING
NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY AND BACK ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS
ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON WHETHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST NBM HAS 20-40% POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY,
BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VERY GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS ALL TAF SITES BESIDES KAVL,
WHERE LINGERING GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DIRECTION WILL TOGGLE SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT, BEFORE BECOMING MORE VARIABLE BY MONDAY
MORNING, WHILE KAVL MAINTAINS A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH SOME WISP OF CIRRUS POSSIBLE FOR THE NC
TERMINALS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: DRY HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES AND
POSSIBLY RESTRICTIONS WED NIGHT/THURSDAY, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING FOR FRIDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ033-503.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ033-048>052-
058-059-070>072-082.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...CAC/JDL
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...CAC
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