967
FXUS62 KGSP 152321
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
621 PM EST MON DEC 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES REBOUND QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION, AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES RETURN WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MILD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM MONDAY: UPPER HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY RISE THROUGH THE
PERIOD IN A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN, WITH THE AXIS OF A TROUGH
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN OFF THE COAST
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH VERY WEAK S/SW FLOW ALREADY NOTED IN
SOME SURFACE OBS THIS AFTERNOON. RH OF 20-25% IS ALREADY BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MIN RH LIKELY ENDING
UP IN THE TEENS. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHEAST GA INTO EARLY EVENING. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN CREEPING
UP TONIGHT IN THE DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW, CRITICAL RH APPEARS LIKELY
AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FDS IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE NEEDED FOR
OUR GA ZONES, BUT THIS WILL BE COORDINATED ONCE THE CURRENT PRODUCT
EXPIRES. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS FORECAST, WITH MIN TEMPS
10-15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND TUE
UNDER SW FLOW AND RISING HEIGHT, BUT MAXES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1200 PM EST MONDAY:
KEY MESSAGE: WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MIDWEEK.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY
WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASED SWLY WAA FLOW ATOP THE FORECAST
AREA. WHILE MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW DOESN'T STREAM INTO
THE AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY
STREAM BY WITHIN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, ENHANCING THE
CLOUD COVER FURTHER. DESPITE THIS, WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY,
WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1235 PM EST MONDAY:
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
A SHARP, PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
AND SWING THRU THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT WITH SOME GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THURSDAY THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. A FAIRLY STRONG SLY
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BRING WARM THICKNESSES WITHIN THE FRONTAL BAND
OF MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE PRECIP BEING LARGELY ALL
RAIN. THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE ON TIMING, NOW
HIGHLIGHTING MAINLY A THURSDAY NIGHT EVENING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES
TO BREAK OUT THURSDAY AFTN ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA, BUT THE NBM STILL SHOWS FAIRLY HEALTHY CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS. OVERALL, I THINK THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY, BUT CLOUDY,
WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY WITH THE
PRECIP SHOULD LIMIT RAIN RATES AND THUNDER CHANCES. POPS QUICKLY
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH JUST A BRIEF
CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS BEFORE
ENDING. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMS EXPECTED. WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET, ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 5000 FT COULD SEE WIND GUSTS IN THE
40-50 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE BREEZY ELSEWHERE, BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MILD AND GENERALLY DRY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW QUICKLY RETURNS IN WAKE OF PASSING DEEP
TROUGH FRIDAY WITH SOME FLAT TROUGHING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A MILD HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE
SLIDES A WEAK FRONT IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP. THICKNESSES REMAIN WARM AND IF ANY PRECIP
DOES DEVELOP, WOULD LIKELY BE JUST RAIN. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
PERHAPS ONLY A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT SSW WINDS FOR ALL BUT
KAVL WILL TREND VRB OVERNIGHT, PICKING BACK UP AFTER DAYBREAK CLOSE
TO 5KT. EXPECT NW UP-VALLEY WINDS FOR KAVL.
OUTLOOK: DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN CHANCES AND
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-
017-018-026-028-029.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...TDP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page