125
FXUS62 KGSP 160609 CCA
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
109 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1210 AM EDT TUESDAY:
KEY MESSAGE: WARM TEMPERATURES REBOUND WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PERSISTING.
MUCH QUIETER AND MILD WEATHER IN PLACE FOR TODAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT ACROSS MOST THE U.S. AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE AXIS OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD, BUT KEEPS ANY RAIN CHANCES AWAY.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FOR LOCATIONS
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS SHOULD HELP GRADUALLY INCREASE SURFACE
MOISTURE AND RH VALUES. ARE SURFACE WINDS TURN SW THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
TODAY QUICKLY REBOUND FROM THE ARCTIC BLAST THAT STARTED THE WEEK.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE 50S, WITH THE NC PIEDMONT REMAINING COOLER
THAN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA. WITH THE WARMER
TEMPS AND LOW RH VALUES STILL BELOW 25%, HENCE ANOTHER FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR THE NE GEORGIA COUNTIES FROM 11AM-7PM TODAY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1230 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE #1: DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT KEEPING DRY WEATHER AROUND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL END UP ~3-6
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO WSW/SW 850 MB FLOW AND DESPITE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND EAST OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HIGHS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WILL
REACH INTO THE 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL END UP A FEW TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
KEY MESSAGE #2: PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND GUSTY WINDS RETURN
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL STEADILY INCREASE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
PRECIPITATION IN PLACE, TEMPS WILL END UP COOLER COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY. BLENDED IN SOME OF THE NBM 10TH PERCENTILE FOR HIGHS ON
THURSDAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS IN-SITU CAD MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO COOLER HIGHS. THIS BLEND LED TO HIGHS
ON THURSDAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS RANGING FROM JUST BELOW NORMAL TO
JUST ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD END UP A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN P-TYPE THROUGH THIS
EVENT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES DROP NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING.
THIS WILL ONLY BE A BRIEF SHOT OF SNOW SO ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, MAINLY ACROSS THE NC/TN BORDER COUNTIES.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. GUSTS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AVERY COUNTY AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3,500 FEET IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THESE
LOCATIONS, SO WILL CLOSELY MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS IN THE COMING
DAYS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1245 AM EST TUESDAY:
KEY MESSAGE #1: DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
LIGHTER WINDS RETURNING BY FRIDAY EVENING.
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW WIND
SPEEDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH GUSTS
DIMINISHING BY THE EVENING HOURS. SIMILAR HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY COMPARED TO THURSDAY, BUT HIGHS WILL BE
MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AROUND. MUCH
WARMER HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY WITH
SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO HIGHS END UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE #2: A COLD FRONT MAY BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHILE THE
GFS MAINTAINS DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONT. THERE ARE ALSO TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS THAT BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK
(ECMWF/CANADIAN). THUS, CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE AND TIMING OF POPS IS
LOW. STUCK WITH NBM FOR POPS FOR THE TIME BEING WHICH LEAD TO CHANCE
POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN ZONES. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SINCE
ONLY THE ECMWF HAS POPS SURVIVING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. IF
PRECIPITATION MANAGES TO DEVELOP, TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE WARM
ENOUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR RAIN. SO, NOT P-TYPE
ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. EXPECT LIGHT TO VRB WINDS OUT OF THE S/SW
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. KAVL SHOULD REMAIN CALM OVERNIGHT BEFORE
PICKING UP AGAIN EARLY MORNING OUT OF THE NW. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
AND NO OTHER VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY BEFORE A
RETURN TO VFR FRIDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM 11 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CP
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