113
FXUS62 KGSP 161822
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
122 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1:05 PM EDT TUESDAY:
KEY MESSAGE: WARMING TREND CONTINUES THRU WEDNESDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER OUR AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD THRU THE NEAR-TERM PERIOD. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP US DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY AS TEM-
PERATURES REBOUND FROM THEIR WELL-BELOW NORMAL VALUES THE PAST
FEW DAYS. DEWPTS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO REBOUND ACROSS THE REGION,
BUT THE PERSISTENT S TO SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD HELP THEM IN-
CREASE LATER THIS EVENING AND MORE SO TOMORROW. NONETHELESS,
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR NE GEORGIA
COUNTIES UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
TODAY TO REACH THE 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS, WITH THE NC PIEDMONT
REMAINING COOLER THAN MOST OF OUR UPSTATE COUNTIES AND OUR NE
GEORGIA COUNTIES. LOW TEMPS EARLY WED ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM-
OUT NEAR FREEZING, IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW, FOR MOST SITES. HIGH
TEMPS TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND, WITH VALUES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF OUR FCST AREA. DEWPTS SHOULD ALSO
GRADUALLY INCREASE THRU THE DAY/EVENING WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 30% FOR MOST ZONES TOMORROW. WE COULD
SEE SOME LOW-END WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH TOMORROW MORNING/AFTN
ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND PIEDMONT, BUT THIS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON
WHETHER OR NOT A WEAK, LOW-LEVEL JET CAN EFFECTIVELY MIX DOWN TO
THE SFC. IN ADDITION, THE JET APPEARS STRONGER JUST TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1125 AM TUESDAY:
KEY MESSAGE #1: PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND GUSTY WINDS RETURN
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
BY TOMORROW NIGHT, AN INTENSE PACIFIC JET WILL EXTEND FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL HELP CARVE OUT A
POTENT TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN AND TAKE ON A NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SWINGS
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY LIFTS ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ROBUST WIND FIELDS IN RESPONSE
TO THE DEEPENING CYCLONE WILL ADVECT A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWATS RISING TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 1".
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITHIN THE WARM
ADVECTION REGIME ON THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE ESCARPMENT AND WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE PIEDMONT. A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT GUIDANCE IS SPLIT AS TO THE DEGREE OF
COVERAGE, BUT AMPLE FORCING SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST LIKELY
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL. BETTER SURFACE MOISTURE
RECOVERY APPEARS TO REMAIN LIMITED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN, SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER, WHICH IS GOOD AS SHEAR PROFILES ARE
RATHER CONCERNING OTHERWISE.
KEY MESSAGE #2: COOLER AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY WITH GUSTY
WINDS
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND
SEASONABLE NORMALS FOR LATE DECEMBER. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY IN
THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
MOST FAVORABLE RIDGES. ALTHOUGH GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1205 PM TUESDAY:
KEY MESSAGE #1: DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH UNCERTAIN RAIN
CHANCES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE REGION WILL BE SITUATED BENEATH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BY SATURDAY AS
THE PREVIOUS TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND A BROAD/FLAT TROUGH
EVOLVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND, BUT
THE BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND FORCING ARE DISPLACED NORTH OF THE
AREA OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A SUBSEQUENT
SURFACE COLD FRONT GETS NUDGED SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS, BUT THE TIMING AND PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS UNCERTAIN
AS IT WILL BE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. THIS, COMBINED
WITH AN OVERALL DEARTH OF SYNOPTIC ASCENT, CASTS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES CAN RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS A SMALL HANDFUL OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO
MAINTAIN WETTER SOLUTIONS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUND TO BACK ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT DRY, VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THRU THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE
AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST BEGINNING TOMORROW MORNING. OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS, WINDS WILL REMAIN S TO SW THRU THE TAF PERIOD WITH
SOME SITES GOING LIGHT AND VRB LATER TONIGHT. SPEEDS WILL PICK
BACK UP LATER TOMORROW MORNING WITH LOW-END GUSTS LIKELY AT MOST
TERMINALS EXCEPT KHKY. AT KAVL, WINDS WILL REMAIN NWLY THIS AFTN/
EVENING WITH A TEMPO FOR SOME LOW-END GUSTS THIS AFTN DUE MOSTLY
TO CHANNELING EFFECTS DOWN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. THEY SHOULD
GO LIGHT AND VRB TO CALM LATER THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LIGHT THRU
18Z TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH VFR
RETURNING BY FRIDAY AFTN.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-
017-018-026-028-029.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TW
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...TW
AVIATION...JPT
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