525
FXUS62 KGSP 181033
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
533 AM EST THU DEC 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTY
WINDS LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING FRIDAY EVENING.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND BEFORE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1245 AM EDT THURSDAY:
KEY MESSAGE #1: A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA, BRINGING MOSTLY
RAIN AND A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW FOR ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS THE NORTHERN CONUS, BRINGING A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO/TN VALLEY AND INTO THE CWA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. FOR AREAS OF THE NC PIEDMONT AND
PORTIONS OF UPSTATE SC, THIS ADDED MOISTURE AND S/SE SURFACE WINDS
HELP TO DEVELOP A FEW ROUNDS OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS. THERE ARE A FEW
AREAS OF THE FAR WESTERN MOUNTAINS THAT COULD ALSO HAVE A FEW
INITIAL SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. GUIDANCE PLACES THE AREA OF GREATEST
QPF RESPONSE ALONG AND EAST OF I-77 AFTER SUNRISE, BEFORE SHOWERS
SPREAD WESTWARD. CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE, WITH A MINIMAL AMOUNT ABOVE A SURFACE
BOUNDARY. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE (15%) OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
IN THE NC PIEDMONT EAST OF I-77, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE
CURRENT GUIDANCE LACKING ANY MENTIONABLE INSTABILITY. SHOWERS BECOME
EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, EXPECTED
TO COME MOVE IN FRIDAY MORNING (NEXT PERIOD). TOTAL RAINFALL FOR
THIS SYSTEM THROUGH AT LEAST 7AM FRIDAY IS BETWEEN 0.25"- 1.25",
WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS. LASTLY, THE EXCEPTIONALLY SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW HAS BEEN
MOSTLY SHUNTED WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE BRINGING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. THERE STILL COULD BE A QUICK MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS LATE TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
DECREASE. IF ANYTHING WERE TO FALL, THERE'S LESS THAN A 30% CHANCE
FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS OVER 0.1". SO, CONSIDER THIS A MOSTLY RAIN
EVENT.
KEY MESSAGE #2: GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER PART OF THIS PRE-FRONTAL MESS ARE THE INCREASED WINDS. AS
PER TYPICAL FOR THE REGION, THE TROUGH SWINGING SOUTH BRINGS STRONG
SHEAR, ESPECIALLY WITH THE CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR THIS, WIND
GUSTS AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS LOOK TO INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR 35-45MPH AND 25-35MPH ELSEWHERE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS, GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS OF
20-25MPH LIKELY. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
PAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND ARE DISCUSSED IN THE NEXT SECTION.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1230 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE #1: WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR
AVERY COUNTY AS WELL AS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3,500 FEET ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS, WITH THE EXCEPTIONS BEING
HENDERSON AND TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES.
GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. WITH GUSTS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 MPH IN AVERY COUNTY AND ABOVE 3,500
FEET IN MADISON, YANCEY, MITCHELL, SWAIN, HAYWOOD, BUNCOMBE, GRAHAM,
MACON, AND JACKSON COUNTIES, A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FROM 7 AM
FRIDAY THROUGH 7 PM FRIDAY. OPTED TO LEAVE OUT HENDERSON AND
TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES FOR NOW AS GUSTS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BELOW 3,500 FEET AS WELL ON
FRIDAY BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA (LESS THAN 45 MPH).
GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE #2: DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RETURN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN AREA-
WIDE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. GUSTY WEST/WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT, RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 MPH. GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. HIGHS
WILL END UP A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON
FRIDAY, BECOMING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY.
HIGHS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL END UP A FEW DEGREES NORMAL ON BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO JUST
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR NORMAL TO JUST ABOVE
NORMAL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL END UP ~4-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1245 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE #1: DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST LOCATIONS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH SOME PRECIPITATION MAY RETURN
ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AT TIMES.
A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE DEPARTING FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SURFACE HIGH APPEARS TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY KEEPING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AROUND FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER, GLOBAL GUIDANCE SOURCES DEPICT MOISTURE RETURNING AS IT
ROUNDS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WHICH WOULD BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK
TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW SO WENT WITH NBM
CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW. DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING, SOME POCKETS OF BRIEF FREEZING RAIN MAY DEVELOP LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE ON FREEZING RAIN ACTUALLY
MATERIALIZING REMAINS LOW. NO ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
KEY MESSAGE #2: ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MOST OF THE
PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MONDAY WHEN BELOW NORMAL HIGHS BRIEFLY
RETURN.
HIGHS WILL RUN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD END UP A FEW DEGREES NORMAL ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY, WITH HIGHS ENDING UP A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
AREA WIDE. A WARMING TREND DEVELOPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH
HIGHS ENDING UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY, BECOMING 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
REGARDING LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
STARTING TO DECREASE. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST,
CONTINUES TO BRING RESTRICTIONS IN FOR VSBY/CIGS. BETWEEN
12Z-16Z, EXPECT CIGS TO PLUMMET INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY. -RA
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH AND SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP THESE
RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. RA SHOULD
START TO TAPER OFF BETWEEN 06Z-08Z, WITH RESTRICTIONS SLOW TO
IMPROVE. ADDITIONALLY, WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SHOULD BE LIGHT
TO VRB, BEFORE PICKING UP AFTER 00Z. GUSTS OF 15-25KTS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT MOST SITES. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAIN
SOUTHERLY BEFORE TURNING MORE WSW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. KAVL
SHOULD TURN NW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT REACHES THE AREA. THE
OTHER CONCERN WITH THIS STRONG FRONT IS LLWS. ALL SITES COULD
SEE LLWS, WITH KCLT STARTING EARLIER AT 18Z FOR 20040KT AND
LASTING UNTIL 07Z FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK: RESTRICTIONS IMPROVE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES OUT AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-048>053-
058-059-062-063.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CP
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