437
FXUS62 KGSP 190559
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1259 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEHIND A PASSING
COLD FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND,
WITH A DRY COLD FRONT SLIPPING THROUGH FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. A
WARM FRONT MAY BRING SMALL CHANCES OF MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION IN
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, OTHERWISE, DRY WITH A WARMING TEMPERATURE
TREND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY: NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP
JUST W=>N OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. ATTENDANT STRONGLY
FORCED FRONTAL ZONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS, WITH A LOW-TOPPED QLCS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
A FRONTAL PRECIP BAND. WITH WINDS ALOFT VEERING QUICKLY TO THE
WEST/PERPENDICULAR TO THE QLCS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WIND GUSTS
OF 45-55 KTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS EAST TN OVER THE PAST HOUR
OR SO. THE CONVECTIVE BAND IS STEADILY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED
AND INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AS IT MOVED INTO INCREASINGLY COMPLEX
TERRAIN. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY BEING ANALYZED
IN MESOANALYSIS (WEAK AND ELEVATED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER), THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS APPEARS UNLIKELY ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA, AS THE QLCS CONTINUES A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. NEVERTHELESS,
LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGER LINE SEGMENTS.
OTHERWISE, INCREASING S/SW WINDS RESPONDING TO WARM FRONT/CAD
BOUNDARY DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE CWA, ALONG WITH INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS ELIMINATED MUCH OF THE
FOG...AND ALL OF THE DENSE FOG ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE WINDS AND
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS EXPECTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS MIXED UP...FOLLOWED
BY ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING...A RECURRENCE OF DENSE FOG IS UNLIKELY, AND THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY WILL BE CANCELLED.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
H8 WINDS ACCELERATING TO 50-60 KTS BY THE END OF THE DAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NEVER BECOMES
ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE, BUT WITH THE MIXED LAYER EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN IN INCREASING COLD ADVECTION REGIME, SOME GUSTS REACHING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEAR LIKELY IN THE USUAL DOWNSLOPE AREAS
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE INHERITED ADVISORY THAT MAINLY INCLUDES ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3500 FEET HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE MOUNTAIN ZONES
OF BURKE AND MCDOWELL COUNTIES, WHICH OFTEN FEEL THE BRUNT OF
DOWNSLOPE WINDS. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY CLOSE TO
CLIMO. CLEAR SKIES, DRY AIR, AND DECREASING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT, WITH MIN TEMPS
FORECAST AT 4 OR 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1130 PM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE: DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS
OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH A FAST-MOVING TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. SFC HIGH PRES WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY, RESULTING IN LIGHT WIND AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A DRY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW
SUNDAY. IT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDINESS MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS,
WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. BUT OTHERWISE, JUST
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY, WITH GUSTS REMAINING
WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY IN
THE MOUNTAINS, BUT A DEGREES WARMER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1145 PM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE #1: DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS, ALTHOUGH SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AT TIMES.
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION, THEN BEGIN TO NUDGE EAST. A SEASONABLE
AIR MASS WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE REGION MONDAY, THEN THE CENTER
OF THE SFC HIGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE DEEP SOUTH. MOISTURE
WILL RIDE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AND MAY PRODUCE SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT TIMES. GUIDANCE STILL IS NOT
IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON ANY QPF, WITH SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL START OUT CHILLY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, SUCH THAT PATCHY FREEZING RAIN OR WINTRY MIX CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. BUT POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW-END CHC
RANGE WITH LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMS EXPECTED. LINGERING POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE JUST RAIN, AS TEMPS RISE. THE REST
OF THE AREA LOOKS DRY WITH PERIODS OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
KEY MESSAGE #2: NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY THEN A SIGNIFICANT WARM
UP THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, RISING TO
NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY. THE BIGGER WARMING TREND
TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY WITH LOWS AND HIGHS RISING
TO NEARLY 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, ALONG WITH AREAS OF MOSTLY -RA. S/SW WINDS
ARE STEADILY INCREASING AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THESE INCREASING WINDS ARE
ALLOWING VISBY TO STEADILY IMPROVE SUCH THAT VISBY IS NOW >= 1SM
ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA. A FRONTAL BAND OF
MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN PERIODIC 1-2SM, BUT THE OVERALL
TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD STEADILY IMPROVING VISBY. THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE FRONTAL BAND COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT TO W/NW
WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. THE HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY ALSO
CAUSE LOWER CIGS TO SCATTER OUT...PERHAPS BRIEFLY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 10-12Z AS DRIER AIR
PUSHES INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH VFR EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. VERY GUSTY W/SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT
MOST SITES BY SUNRISE, WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 25 KTS (GIVE OR TAKE)
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. (KAVL WILL BE AN EXCEPTION WITH NW WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 KTS POSSIBLE.)
OUTLOOK: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK
FRONT MAY BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS ON TUESDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-063-503-505.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JDL
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