449
FXUS62 KGSP 191135
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
635 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEHIND A PASSING
COLD FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND,
WITH A DRY COLD FRONT SLIPPING THROUGH FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. A
WARM FRONT MAY BRING SMALL CHANCES OF MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION IN
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, OTHERWISE, DRY WITH A WARMING TEMPERATURE
TREND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 620 AM FRIDAY: NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. ATTENDANT STRONGLY FORCED FRONTAL
ZONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA, AND WILL BE CLEAR OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING. IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT, LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH H8 WINDS ACCELERATING TO 50-60 KTS BY THE END OF THE
DAY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NEVER
BECOMES ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE, BUT WITH THE MIXED LAYER EXPECTED
TO DEEPEN IN INCREASING COLD ADVECTION REGIME, SOME GUSTS REACHING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEAR LIKELY IN THE USUAL DOWNSLOPE AREAS
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF BURKE AND MCDOWELL COUNTIES
(WHICH OFTEN FEEL THE BRUNT OF DOWNSLOPE WINDS), AND MAINLY ABOVE
3500 FEET ACROSS THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VERY CLOSE TO CLIMO. CLEAR SKIES, DRY AIR, AND DECREASING
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT,
WITH MIN TEMPS FORECAST AT 4 OR 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1130 PM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE: DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS
OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH A FAST-MOVING TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. SFC HIGH PRES WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY, RESULTING IN LIGHT WIND AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A DRY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW
SUNDAY. IT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDINESS MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS,
WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. BUT OTHERWISE, JUST
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY, WITH GUSTS REMAINING
WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY IN
THE MOUNTAINS, BUT A DEGREES WARMER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1145 PM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE #1: DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS, ALTHOUGH SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AT TIMES.
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION, THEN BEGIN TO NUDGE EAST. A SEASONABLE
AIR MASS WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE REGION MONDAY, THEN THE CENTER
OF THE SFC HIGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE DEEP SOUTH. MOISTURE
WILL RIDE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AND MAY PRODUCE SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT TIMES. GUIDANCE STILL IS NOT
IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON ANY QPF, WITH SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL START OUT CHILLY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, SUCH THAT PATCHY FREEZING RAIN OR WINTRY MIX CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. BUT POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW-END CHC
RANGE WITH LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMS EXPECTED. LINGERING POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE JUST RAIN, AS TEMPS RISE. THE REST
OF THE AREA LOOKS DRY WITH PERIODS OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
KEY MESSAGE #2: NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY THEN A SIGNIFICANT WARM
UP THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, RISING TO
NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY. THE BIGGER WARMING TREND
TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY WITH LOWS AND HIGHS RISING
TO NEARLY 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA AT
THIS TIME, AND INCREASED MIXING ALONG WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION HAS
RESULTED IN LIFTING/SCATTERING OF CIGS AND FOG TO VFR ACROSS THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA. ANY LINGERING VFR CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BY
LATE MORNING, WITH VFR/MOSTLY SKC CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY W/SW WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT THE
UPSTATE SC TERMINALS, AND THESE WILL SPREAD TO KHKY AND KCLT BY
LATE MORNING, WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 25 KTS (GIVE OR TAKE) EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY. DIRECTIONS WILL THEN TURN TOWARD THE WNW EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. KAVL WILL BE AN EXCEPTION TO THIS TREND, AS NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 KTS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM LATE AFTERNOON ON...WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS BY LATE EVENING.
OUTLOOK: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK
FRONT MAY BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS ON TUESDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-048>053-
058-059-062-063-503-505.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JDL
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