902
FXUS62 KGSP 012338
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
638 PM EST THU JAN 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH COOLER
HIGHS RETURNING BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
RETURN BY SUNDAY, LINGERING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM EST NEW YEAR'S DAY...
KEY MESSAGE #1: WIND GUSTS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE RETURNING
LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY ABOVE 3,500 FEET.
WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. HOWEVER, GUSTS WILL PICK BACK UP AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN, MAINLY
ABOVE 3,500 FEET. GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
AND WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE #2: DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH CLOUDY SKIES RETURNING FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ALOFT THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MORE
ZONAL ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THE
SFC, A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BEFORE LIFTING
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RAIN
CHANCES GENERALLY HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE SHORT TERM. MOSTLY SUNNY
TODAY BEFORE CLOUD COVER INCREASES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ~6-
12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1210 PM EST THURSDAY:
KEY MESSAGE #1: BENEFICIAL RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE #2: BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IN WEAK COLD
AIR DAMMING. OTHERWISE, TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM
WILL EVOLVE INTO A PHASED, RELATIVELY HIGH-AMPLITUDE PATTERN EARLY
NEXT WEEK, AS AN AREA OF DAMPENING SOUTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS
OVERSPREADS THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR A SURFACE WAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND
LIFT IS LIKELY TO BRING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
WARRANTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY THE END OF SATURDAY MORNING,
BEFORE RAIN BEGINS TO TAPER OFF SAT AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE WAVE
MOVES RATHER QUICKLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT TOTAL RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 0.33-0.66" RANGE,
AS THE STRONGER FORCING...ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD FOCUS
HIGHER RAINFALL RATES CLOSER TO I-20.
RELATIVELY COOL/DRY AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME DEGREE OF COLD AIR DAMMING DEVELOPMENT VIA DIABATIC
EFFECTS OF FALLING PRECIP, BUT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN/LOCATION OF
LARGER SCALE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE UNFAVORABLE FOR ANYTHING OTHER
THAN WEAK IN-SITU CAD. THIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY
PRECIP, ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS ALONG THE EASTERN ESCARPMENT OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL,
HOWEVER. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, ALLOWING
TEMPS TO WARM TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO TO END THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM EST THURSDAY:
KEY MESSAGE #1:DRY WITH A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.
A DE-AMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE EXTENDED,
WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A FLAT/ZONAL REGIME FORECAST BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS EVOLUTION WILL SPELL RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST, WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND EXPECTED, CULMINATING
IN TEMPS 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL BY WED/THU. THERE WILL BE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD, AS MOISTURE COULD PERIODICALLY BANK ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK WAVES PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA. PRECIP
PROBABILITIES ARE ONLY 20-30% ACROSS MAINLY THE COUNTIES BORDERING
TN, AND CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE 00Z
TAF PERIOD. EXPECT A STEADY SW WIND AT MOST TERMINALS, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KAVL, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A LIGHT NW CHANNELED
WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRESENTLY SKC/FEW SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLOUD UP OVERNIGHT, AS THICKENING CIRRUS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA.
BY MID-DAY FRIDAY, BKN/OVC SKIES SHOULD DEVELOP. SOME SHRA WILL
FINALLY DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, AFTER 00Z ON TUESDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL ONLY JUST BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON OUR WESTERN
ZONES, HAVING NO EFFECT ON ANY TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THIS
TAF ISSUANCE.
OUTLOOK: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS TO THE TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DRY,
VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN SUNDAY, AND LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...MPR
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