339
FXUS62 KGSP 022340
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
640 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY BRINGING WITH IT A ROUND OF RAINFALL. DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY, LINGERING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE #1: MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DRY TODAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS.
UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AS DRY CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB ~10-13 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S, WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING BY THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE #2: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, WITH COOLER HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS IN-SITU COLD AIR
DAMMING DEVELOPS.
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ALOFT THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE AN UPPER
TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BRINGING MUCH NEEDED RAIN. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL NOT BE A
DROUGHT BUSTING RAIN. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE (0.25" TO
0.50"), WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA (0.10" TO
0.25"). MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PRECIPITATION WILL ALLOW LOWS
TONIGHT TO END UP ~15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IN-SITU COLD AIR
DAMMING WILL LEAD TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY, WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS PULLS AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1100 AM FRIDAY:
KEY MESSAGE: DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
RESIDUAL LOWER CLOUDINESS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING
SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY THANKS TO A SCOURING LLVL FLOW BOOSTING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO AS MUCH AS TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO. AFTER A
SUBTLE IMPULSE BRINGS A PERIOD OF HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, SFC HIPRES CENTER THEN BUILDS INTO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD ON MONDAY. WITH THE RESULTANT SFC RIDGING NOSING
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS, THIS PUSH OF COOLER
AIR WILL TEMPORARILY DROP MAX TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TO
START OFF THE WORK WEEK.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1130 AM FRIDAY:
KEY MESSAGE 1: WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK.
BENEATH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, WARMING SOUTHWESTERLY LLVL FLOW WILL
BOOST TUESDAY'S LOWER ELEVATION MAXIMUMS INTO THE 60S. UPPER
HEIGHTS ATOP THE SE CONUS NUDGE FURTHER UPWARD ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
LATEST NBM 50TH PERCENTILE PROGGING A FEW PIEDMONT 70 DEG F READINGS.
NBM MAXIMUMS DECLINE A TAD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
AS SOME MODELS DEVELOP A WEAK CAD REGIME, BUT EVEN THE NBM 25TH
PERCENTILE IS PROGGING LOWER ELEVATION MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
CONTINUING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FOR LATE WEEK REGIONWIDE.
TOKEN SMALL POPS FOR THE NC MTNS WERE RETAINED FOR TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS VERY WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE ACTIVATES ACRS THE TENN
VALLEY BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS DEPARTS
INTO THE NE CONUS. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN ON JUST HOW FAR EAST INTO
THE APPALACHIANS THAT APPRECIABLE CENTRAL CONUS ENERGY DEVELOPS BY
FRIDAY IN ORDER TO ERODE THE SUPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGING LEADING TO AN
UPTICK IN SHOWER CHANCES.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: MURKY WEATHER IS COMING, BUT FOR NOW,
WE'RE ENJOYING THE FINAL FEW HOURS OF QUIET, VFR CONDITIONS AHEAD
OF AN ADVANCING DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST. CIRCA 2330Z FRIDAY,
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS,
WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY IN THE FL100-120 RANGE. SOME LIGHT RETURNS
ON RADAR LIKELY AREN'T MAKING IT TO THE GROUND.
OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS, MORE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA FROM NORTH GEORGIA AND TENNESSEE, WITH SOME LEADING SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE FOLLOWED BY MORE CONSISTENT -RA AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
EXPECT ASSOCIATED VIS AND CEILING RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP, GRADUALLY
PROGRESSING FROM MVFR OVERNIGHT TO WIDESPREAD IFR BY MORNING.
STEADY RAIN SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY, ALONG WITH IFR
CEILING AND VIS RESTRICTIONS...BEFORE SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS
IN STORE FOR SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT. EXPECT INITIALLY SW WINDS
TO VEER AROUND TO THE N/NE OVERNIGHT AND CLIMB TO 5-10KTS DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK: CEILING AND VIS RESTRICTIONS SHOULD LIFT ENTIRELY BY
SUNDAY MORNING. DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...MPR
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