777
FXUS62 KGSP 040008
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
708 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
THE COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT LEADING TO
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE #1: DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES STICK AROUND THANKS TO COLD AIR DAMMING.
COLD AIR DAMMING REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AROUND THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD STILL
END UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT WILL END UP NEAR NORMAL TO JUST BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AREA-WIDE.
KEY MESSAGE #2: PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO LINGERING
COLD AIR DAMMING AND DECREASING CLOUDS.
COLD AIR DAMMING LINGERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY
DECREASING IN COVERAGE. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
BACKING OFF ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AS WELL AS THE
COVERAGE OF PATCHY FOG. IT APPEARS THAT NORTHEAST GEORGIA, THE SOUTH
CAROLINA UPSTATE, AND LOCATIONS ALONG/NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE FOG DEVELOP.
KEY MESSAGE #3: DRY AND WARMER SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.
850 MB FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ACT TO SCOUR OUT WHAT'S
LEFT OF THE COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING THANKS TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL END UP ~5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1100 AM SATURDAY:
KEY MESSAGE: DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND.
ATOP THE SE CONUS, RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE SEEN AS LLVL SFC RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD GIVES WAY TO A WARMING LLVL SWLY FLOW. MONDAY IS SLATED TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MAXIMUMS "ONLY" A CATEGORY
ABOVE THE EARLY JANUARY CLIMO. LOWER ELEVATIONS REMAIN PROGGED TO
WARM SOLIDLY INTO THE 60S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE, SENSIBLE WX ON MONDAY WILL FEATURE MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS
MAINLY DUE TO DEVELOPING MOIST LLVL UPGLIDE COINCIDENT WITH THE ONSET
OF THE WARMING RETURN FLOW.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1145 AM SATURDAY:
KEY MESSAGE 1: TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
ABNORMALLY HIGH HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO LINGER ATOP THE SE CONUS INTO
NEXT SATURDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SW FLOW WILL KEEP LLVL THERMAL
AXIS POKING NORTH INTO THE CAROLINAS SUPPORTING LOWER ELEVATION HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EVERYDAY. COINCIDENT WITH THE POTENTIAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD, VERY MILD
NIGHTTIME MINIMUMS ARE EXPECTED, WITH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOW
TEMPERATURES NEAR OUR NORMAL EARLY JANUARY HIGHS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD REMAINS
LIMITED AS SOUTHERN PLAINS ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
RESULTING IN DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS POKING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SHOWER CHANCES TICKING UPWARD THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY COINCIDENT WITH FRONTAL ZONE INCHING CLOSER.
IT SEEMS LIKE FORCING FOR ANY SHOWERS STARTING LATER ON THURSDAY
WILL BE DRIVEN BY WEAK UPGLIDE AS BETTER LARGER SCALE FORCING AND
DEEPER MOISTURE MAY NOT TRANSLATE INTO THE REGION UNTIL LATER ON
FRIDAY. NEXT SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO A MILD AND SHOWERY DAY AS
FRONTAL ZONE SAGS SLOWLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
THE SCT TO BKN MVFR-LEVEL CIGS HAVE MOVED EAST OF OUR AREA OVER THE
PAST FEW HRS WITH ALL OUR TERMINALS NOW REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS. THE
MAIN CONCERN GOING FORWARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER-
NIGHT AND THRU MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO
CALM FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING, AND DEWPT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL AT BEST. THE LATEST NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE MORE BULL-
ISH WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE SC UPSTATE AND UP
INTO THE NC PIEDMONT (INCLUDING KHKY), BUT IT'S UNCLEAR IF IT WILL
SPREAD FURTHER EAST AND REACH KCLT. THUS, I HAVE PREVAILING FOG AND
LIFR CIGS AT KGSP, KGMU, AND KHKY BEGINNING AROUND 09Z. I LIMIT RE-
STRICTIONS AT KCLT TO MVFR, BUT THEY COULD CERTAINLY GO LOWER. AT KAVL,
I HAVE A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS FROM 09 TO 13Z, BUT THEY TOO COULD
CERTAINLY GO LOWER. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THRU THE
TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: DRY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...AR/JPT
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JPT
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