537
FXUS62 KGSP 041725
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1225 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AND RAIN CHANCES LOW
UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1200 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE #1: DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY.
BROAD UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES LEADING
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. AT THE
SURFACE, DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL END UP
~7-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, BECOMING ~10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL END UP ~8-13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUD COVER
STEADILY INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO LATE
TONIGHT THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST, BUT CLOUD
COVER WILL STICK AROUND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO SCATTER OUT.
KEY MESSAGE #2: FOG AND LOW STRATUS RETURN OVERNIGHT INTO MID-
MORNING MONDAY.
WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT, RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINED WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. DESPITE LINGERING CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY
DEVELOP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING MONDAY BEFORE
LIFTING AS DAYTIME MIXING GETS UNDERWAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1100 AM SUNDAY:
KEY MESSAGE: UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD, NEAR RECORD HIGHS
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
DEPARTING WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO LLVL WAA BY TUESDAY
WHICH WILL AID IN BOOSTING LOWER ELEVATION MAX TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 60S. THERE CONTINUES TO BE JUST ENOUGH FORCING AHEAD OF A
WEAK FRONT, TRAILING A SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH, TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT. SUBTLE
S/WV AXIS WILL PASS DOWNSTREAM OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH
DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND WARMING IN IT'S WAKE. A FEW LOCALES COULD PUSH
RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES THAT AFTERNOON AS PIEDMONT 70S REMAIN LIKELY.
THESE ARE A FEW DEGREES CLOSE TO RECORDS AT CLT AND AVL WHERE THE
RECORDS ARE OUTLIERS COMPARED TO SURROUNDING DAYS. GSP'S RECORD OF
71 COULD BE MET OR EXCEEDED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1215 PM SUNDAY:
KEY MESSAGE 1: TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONSIDERABLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK.
AFTER NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND LIKELY FRIDAY
TREND SLIGHTLY LESS WARM ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, THOUGH GIVEN ANOMALOUS HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ALOFT, MINS AND
MAXES REMAIN ON THE ORDER OF 15 ABOVE NORMAL NONETHELESS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COLD FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WITH COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS ATOP THE REGION ON THURSDAY, KEEPING
ANY DEEPER CONVECTION SUPPRESSED AS WARM FRONT ACTIVATES WELL WNW
OF THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING PLAINS
SYSTEM. DEEPENING CENTRAL CONUS CYCLONE IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY LIFT
NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE ATTENDANT MODERATELY FORCED COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACRS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW THE TIMING OF THE PROGGED STOUT
SWLY LLJ AND DEVELOPING WEAK INSTABILITY LINES UP FOR ANY GUSTY
THUNDER CHANCES AND WILL OBVIOUSLY CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THREAT
ON SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. THE LATEST FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER SATURDAY NIGHT, AND A PERIOD
OF NW FLOW SNOW MAY OCCUR IN THE NC MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
NEXT SUNDAY'S MAXIMUMS BACK CLOSER TO CLIMO.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: IFR CIGS CONTINUE AT KAND AS OF 18Z WITH SKC
NOTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE TERMINALS. IFR SHOULD LIFT WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR AT KAND. DRY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE. CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO LATE THIS EVENING, STICKING AROUND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, BUT SCT TO BKN
CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER AT KAVL. VFR LINGERS THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING BEFORE RESTRICTIONS RETURN TONIGHT INTO MID-MORNING MONDAY
AS FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. RESTRICTIONS WILL RANGE
FROM MVFR TO LIFR OVERNIGHT WITH SLOW RECOVERY EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
MONDAY MORNING. COULD NOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR
RESTRICTIONS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. VSBYS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY 15Z BUT CIG RESTRICTIONS MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAVL
AND KCLT.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK OUTSIDE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG EACH MORNING/NIGHT.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...AR
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