061
FXUS62 KGSP 050004
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
704 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AND RAIN CHANCES LOW
UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1200 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE #1: DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY.
BROAD UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES LEADING
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. AT THE
SURFACE, DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL END UP
~7-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, BECOMING ~10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL END UP ~8-13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUD COVER
STEADILY INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO LATE
TONIGHT THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST, BUT CLOUD
COVER WILL STICK AROUND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO SCATTER OUT.
KEY MESSAGE #2: FOG AND LOW STRATUS RETURN OVERNIGHT INTO MID-
MORNING MONDAY.
WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT, RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINED WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. DESPITE LINGERING CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY
DEVELOP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING MONDAY BEFORE
LIFTING AS DAYTIME MIXING GETS UNDERWAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1100 AM SUNDAY:
KEY MESSAGE: UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD, NEAR RECORD HIGHS
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
DEPARTING WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO LLVL WAA BY TUESDAY
WHICH WILL AID IN BOOSTING LOWER ELEVATION MAX TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 60S. THERE CONTINUES TO BE JUST ENOUGH FORCING AHEAD OF A
WEAK FRONT, TRAILING A SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH, TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT. SUBTLE
S/WV AXIS WILL PASS DOWNSTREAM OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH
DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND WARMING IN IT'S WAKE. A FEW LOCALES COULD PUSH
RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES THAT AFTERNOON AS PIEDMONT 70S REMAIN LIKELY.
MAXES WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORDS AT CLT AND AVL WHERE THE RECORDS ARE
OUTLIERS COMPARED TO SURROUNDING DAYS. GSP'S RECORD OF 71 COULD BE
MET OR EXCEEDED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1215 PM SUNDAY:
KEY MESSAGE 1: TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONSIDERABLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK.
AFTER NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND LIKELY FRIDAY
TREND SLIGHTLY LESS WARM ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, THOUGH GIVEN ANOMALOUS HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ALOFT, MINS AND
MAXES REMAIN ON THE ORDER OF 15 ABOVE NORMAL NONETHELESS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COLD FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WITH COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS ATOP THE REGION ON THURSDAY, KEEPING
ANY DEEPER CONVECTION SUPPRESSED AS WARM FRONT ACTIVATES WELL WNW OF
THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING PLAINS
SYSTEM. DEEPENING CENTRAL CONUS CYCLONE IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY LIFT
NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE ATTENDANT MODERATELY FORCED COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACRS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW THE TIMING OF THE PROGGED STOUT
SWLY LLJ AND DEVELOPING WEAK INSTABILITY LINES UP FOR ANY GUSTY
THUNDER CHANCES AND WILL OBVIOUSLY CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THREAT
ON SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. THE LATEST FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER SATURDAY NIGHT, AND A PERIOD
OF NW FLOW SNOW MAY OCCUR IN THE NC MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
NEXT SUNDAY'S MAXIMUMS BACK CLOSER TO CLIMO.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THRU THE
00Z TAF PERIOD THANKS TO BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT, AND LIKELY LINGER THRU TOMORROW MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
IT'S LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT PATCHY DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL
DEVELOP AT MOST TERMINALS BY 06 OR 07Z OVERNIGHT, AND MOST SITES WILL
REMAIN IFR OR LOWER THRU MOST OF THE MORNING. FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE,
I LIMITED 1/4SM FOG TO TEMPO GROUPS, HOWEVER TERMINALS COULD SEE LIFR
TO VLIFR RESTRICTIONS PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING.
IN ADDITION, MOST OF THE NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE IS SLOW TO IMPROVE CONDI-
TIONS MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY THE LOWER CIGS. THUS, I DON'T HAVE
VFR RETURNING UNTIL ROUGHLY NOON AT MOST SITES. OTHERWISE, WE SHOULD
SEE FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS TOMORROW AFTN/EVENING AFTER THE RESTRICTIONS
CLEAR. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AND REMAIN THAT WAY THRU
MOST OF THE MORNING. THEY WILL EVENTUALLY PICK BACK UP FROM THE S/SW
TOMORROW AFTN, WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS. AT KAVL, WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE WEAKER AND MORE VRB THRU THE DAY TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK: DRY, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG EACH MORNING.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 01-07
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 70 1913 20 2014 58 1913 -1 2014
KCLT 77 1890 24 1988 62 1998 6 2014
KGSP 71 2012 27 2014 59 1998 5 2014
1988
1912
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...AR/JPT
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JPT
CLIMATE...CSH
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