568
FXUS62 KGSP 051455
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
955 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AND RAIN CHANCES LOW
UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 950 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE #1: DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 AM EST
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE #2: DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ACROSS SOUTH
CAROLINA UPSTATE, NORTHEAST GEORGIA, AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED
THROUGH 11 AM EST. SOME DENSE FOG IS ALSO NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THIS MORNING BUT IS NOT QUITE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH
TO JUSTIFY EXPANDING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOG WILL BE SLOW TO
LIFT THIS MORNING BUT WITH TIME, THE EDGES OF THE FOG WILL MIX OUT
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THE FOG/STRATUS CLEAR
EARLIEST. ANOTHER BOUT OF FOG/STRATUS SHOULD MATERIALIZE OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1100 PM SUN:
KEY MESSAGE: TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
RAIN CHANCES REMAINING VERY LOW.
A DEEP DRY INVERSION WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WAA CONTINUES BETWEEN WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND WEAK
TROUGH CROSSING THE MID-MS AND OH VALLEYS TUESDAY, WITH WINDS THEN
VEERING AS THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MODELS DIFFER AS TO HOW LONG NOCTURNALLY GENERATED STRATUS LINGERS
INTO THE DAY TUESDAY; THE MOIST LAYER IS QUITE SHALLOW, TRAPPED UNDER
THE INVERSION, SO THINKING IS IT WILL BURN OFF DURING THE MORNING. AS
SUCH, STILL FAVORING AN APPRECIABLY WARMER DAY COMPARED TO MONDAY,
SUPPORTED NOT ONLY BY THE FASTER CLEARING BUT ALSO THICKNESSES
INCREASING. SOME BUST POTENTIAL DOES EXIST IF THE LOW CLOUDS ARE MORE
STUBBORN THAN FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AS WE MIX INTO
PREFRONTAL LLJ. CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH ARRIVAL OF UPPER
JET AND APPROACH OF FRONT FROM THE WEST, AND A LAYER OF STRATOCU IS
SUGGESTED TO REACH THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY WITH A VERY SHALLOW
LAYER OF INSTABILITY UNDER THE INVERSION. WE STILL FEATURE A LOW
15-30% CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG THE TN BORDER AND UPPERMOST SAVANNAH
VALLEY TUE NIGHT, THOUGH GIVEN THE SHALLOW NATURE AND LACK OF
APPRECIABLE DYNAMIC FORCING, THERE APPEARS NO NEED TO MENTION PRECIP
ANY FURTHER EAST. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE RAIN WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS 10-15
ABOVE NORMAL.
850MB FLOW TURNS WESTERLY TUE NIGHT; THE MOUNTAIN POPS DIMINISH. FLOW
THEN TURNS NORTHWESTERLY WED, WITH CAA TECHNICALLY ONGOING BUT
DOWNSLOPING AND AIRMASS MODIFICATION OVERCOMING THAT--MAX TEMPS HIT
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S, STILL NEAR THE RECORD AT GSP BUT NOT THE
OTHER SITES WHERE THE DAILY RECORDS ARE HIGH OUTLIERS. DRIER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT MEANS RH MAY BOTTOM OUT CLOSER TO 30 PERCENT THOUGH
WINDS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1145 PM SUN:
KEY MESSAGE 1: DESPITE MORE CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONSIDERABLY ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL A COLD
FRONT PASSES SATURDAY.
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL SOUTH OF THE CWA EITHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY. BY THAT TIME, SHORTWAVES WILL BE COMING INTO PHASE OVER OR
JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES; AHEAD OF THE INCIPIENT TROUGH THE FRONT
WILL REACTIVATE, INITIALLY IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY BUT EVENTUALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AL/GA/SC. AGAIN THE MOIST LAYER LOOKS TO REMAIN
SHALLOW UNDER A DEEP INVERSION, SO DESPITE ONSET OF CLOUD COVER IN
THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT OR THU, POPS TAKE LONGER TO DEVELOP AND
MAINLY OCCUR WHERE SW'LY FLOW LEADS TO MECHANICAL LIFT ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE BLUE RIDGE, I.E., THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. THE WARMING TREND LOOKS
TO BE TEMPERED BY THE ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS, BUT GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS
HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ALOFT, TEMPS REMAIN 15-20 ABOVE NORMAL OVERALL.
FORECAST MINS FRIDAY MORNING ACTUALLY ARE A TAD HIGHER THAN NORMAL
MAXES.
CYCLOGENESIS IS SHOWN TO OCCUR GENERALLY NEAR OKLAHOMA THURSDAY AND
MAJOR MODEL CONSENSUS STILL DEPICTS THE NEW SYSTEM TRACKING TO NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH FRIDAY. WHEREAS IT HAD APPEARED POSSIBLE THE
LOW'S TRACK WOULD BE FARTHER SOUTH AND BRING THE COLD FRONT TO OUR
AREA FRIDAY, MOST RUNS NOW FAVOR THE FRONT NOT CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
APPS UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. POPS THUS ARE DELAYED OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA UNTIL LATER FRIDAY, WITH PEAK CHANCES FOR ALL ZONES
BEING FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. IN THAT PERIOD, FORCING WILL
BE PROVIDED MAINLY BY 45-50 KT LLJ AND RIGHT-REAR QUAD OF JET STREAK
IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER TROUGH. ENSEMBLE PWATS RISE TO AROUND
2 SD ABOVE CLIMO, SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR VERY GOOD RAINFALL RATES,
THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE PROBS OF 1"/6H ARE ACTUALLY QUITE LOW
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. DEEP SATURATION SEEN ON PROG SOUNDINGS OVER
THE WESTERN CWA IS NOT SEEN FARTHER EAST, BUT LAPSE RATES ARE POOR IN
BOTH AREAS. THESE MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOW LIKELIHOOD OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THE LACK OF CAPE WOULD APPEAR TO KEEP OUR
SEVERE THREAT LOW, THOUGH LREF SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS ARE LIKELY TO REACH
60F IN OUR EASTERN I-85 CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR WILL
BE STRONG, AND IF ANY INSTABILITY DOES DEVELOP A FINE LINE OF
CONVECTION POSING A SEVERE WIND THREAT COULD RESULT, ESPECIALLY IN
THAT AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2: AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL, LIGHT NORTHWEST
FLOW SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY
NIGHT.
TEMPS TREND COOLER ONLY A FEW DEGREES ON SATURDAY--STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL--WITH CAA ONCE AGAIN OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING. POPS DIMINISH FROM
AFTERNOON ONWARD, BUT DUE TO MODEL SPREAD REMAIN SLIGHT-CHANCE OR
GREATER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS COOL TO
NEAR NORMAL OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY THAT TIME, AND THE PATTERN SUPPORTS
AT LEAST A BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE NW FLOW PRONE AREAS. TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL IN THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY BUT BELOW NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS.
BASE OF SHORTWAVE PASSING THE MOUNTAINS NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY RESULT
IN ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF NW FLOW SNOW.
AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: FOG AND LOW STRATUS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE
AREA THIS MORNING. VLIFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE COMMON AS SHALLOW
MOISTURE HAS POOLED UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME SPILLOVER
DOWN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, SUCH AS THE FRENCH BROAD AND LITTLE
TENNESSEE. GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE FOG/STRATUS EVENT
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH FOG PERSISTING
THROUGH LATE MORNING AND LOW STRATUS LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WITH TIME, HOWEVER, THE FOG WILL MIX OUT WITH LOW STRATUS ALSO
LIFTING AND SCATTERING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE EDGES OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME MIX OUT. EVENTUALLY, ALL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
SHOULD RETURN AGAIN OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE IS LOW.
OUTLOOK: DRY, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-
018-026-028-029.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ056-
068>071-082-508-510.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ008>014-
019-101>109.
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...AR/TW
SHORT TERM...JCW
LONG TERM...JCW
AVIATION...AR/TW
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