020
FXUS62 KGSP 060036
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
736 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AND RAIN CHANCES LOW
UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE #1: MOSTLY DRY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUESDAY.
UPPER RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY BEFORE FLATTENING OUT
AND BECOMING MORE ZONAL TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL AT THE SURFACE KEEPING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AROUND. CLOUD
COVER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST THE DAY. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL END UP ~8-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT AREA-WIDE, ALLOWING LOWS TO END UP ~10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUT OF THE WEST THROUGHOUT
TUESDAY WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER RAIN WILL
ACTUALLY REACH THE GROUND REMAINS LOW SO NBM SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK
GOOD ACROSS THESE ZONES FOR NOW. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY BUT GUSTS WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. CLOUD COVER MOSTLY STICKS AROUND TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT SHOULD SCATTER OUT SOMEWHAT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE LINGERING CLOUD COVER, HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
WARMER, ENDING UP ~15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE #2: PATCHY TO DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS RETURN OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING BUT COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG SHOULD BE LOWER
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING.
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY TO LOCALLY DENSE
FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
WIDESPREAD AS WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER MAY SCATTER OUT
ENOUGH ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT ALLOWING MOUNTAIN
VALLEY FOG TO RETURN. FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1130 AM MON:
KEY MESSAGE: TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER WEDNESDAY BUT COOL
SLIGHTLY THURSDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING VERY LOW.
A LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MOVING EAST ON
THURSDAY.
EXPECT WARMING TO TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND NEAR THE RECORD FOR GSP.
COOLER, BUT CERTAINLY NOT COLD, THURSDAY WITH LOWS AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1155 AM MON:
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER A COLD FRONT
PASSES SATURDAY. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASES FRIDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO REMAIN
LIMITED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS, WHERE MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE
HIGHEST. PRECIP CHANCES THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS MOISTURE AND FORCING MOVE IN WITH THE COLD FRONT.
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE FORCING AND
VERY HIGH PW VALUES. HOWEVER, THE CHANCE OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS IS
LOWER. INSTABILITY REMAINS MINIMAL, EVEN MUCAPE, BUT FORCING MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME THUNDER. STILL, THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LOW
DESPITE THE HIGH BULK SHEAR VALUES. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
AS AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY CHANCES COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
SEVERE STORM CHANCES.
TEMPS RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY DROP A FEW
DEGREES ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL, LIGHT
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY.
DRY AND COLDER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LINGERING
MOISTURE AND NW FLOW MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF NW FLOW SNOW LATE
SAT NITE INTO SUNDAY. FOR NOW, NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED.
TEMPS COOL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
NEAR NORMAL ELSEWHERE AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MOST LOCATIONS
ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: MVFR VISBY AND/OR CIGS HAVE MANAGED TO LINGER
OVER A HANDFUL OF OUR NC FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT TERMINALS, INCLUDING
KHKY. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER CHALLENGING AVIATION FCST, WITH MORE FOG
AND LOW STRATUS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THRU THE MORNING. COVERAGE OF
DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER TODAY, HOWEVER
IT'S LOOKING LIKE THE LOWER CIGS COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON AGAIN
ON TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
TO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK TUESDAY. LIFR/VLIFR
VISBY WILL BE MORE HIT AND MISS. FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE, I ONLY HAVE
KHKY WITH PREVAILING 1/2SM OR LOWER VISBY. CONFIDENCE ON LOW STRATUS
AND FOG AT KAVL REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOWER, NONETHELESS IT WAS HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN THEIR TAF BEGINNING AROUND 08Z. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW
TO IMPROVE TUESDAY MORNING, WITH VISBY IMPROVING BY LATE MORNING. OUT-
SIDE OF THE MTNS, CIGS LIKELY WON'T RETURN TO VFR UNTIL THE AFTERNOON,
WITH SOME SITES POSSIBLY MAINTAINING MVFR CIGS THRU MOST OF THE DAY.
OTHERWISE, OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS, WINDS WILL FAVOR A SWLY DIRECTION THRU
THE TAF PERIOD. THEY WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING AND
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN LATER TOMORROW MORNING WITH LOW-END GUSTS EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. AT KAVL, WINDS WILL FAVOR
A S/SE DIRECTION TONIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT. THEY WILL
GRADUALLY PICK BACK UP FROM THE S/SW TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: EXPECT DRY, VFR CONDITIONS THRU MUCH OF THE WEEK. PRECIPI-
TATION CHANCES INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND LINGER INTO THE
WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 01-07
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 70 1913 20 2014 58 1913 -1 2014
KCLT 77 1890 24 1988 62 1998 6 2014
KGSP 71 2012 27 2014 59 1998 5 2014
1988
1912
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...AR/JPT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JPT
CLIMATE...GSP
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