293
FXUS62 KGSP 061757
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1257 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH NEAR-
RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1235 PM TUESDAY:
KEY MESSAGE #1: A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING BUT NEAR RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW FOR SOME
SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING, BUT ANY
RAINFALL WOULD BE VERY LIGHT. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS RETURN BY EVENING AND LINGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT BUT LOOK TO SCATTER OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK AS DRIER AIR AND A NORTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS SHOULD ALSO KEEP FOG FORMATION AT A
MINIMUM AS WELL. THAT SAID, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO
LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK INTO MID MORNING WEDNESDAY IF THE DRIER AIR
OR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS DELAYED. LOWS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
NO COOLING IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. IN FACT,
HIGHS WILL BE WARMER WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS AT GSP. RELATIVELY HIGH
RECORDS AT AVL AND CLT APPEAR TO BE SAFE FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER AS WELL WITH SUNNY SKIES BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1208 PM EST TUESDAY:
KEY MESSAGE: WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO END THE WORKWEEK.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED SOUTH OF THE CWFA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH SETS UP SHOP OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. WEAK CAA WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS INCREASING
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
END UP 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BE
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT QUICKLY EJECTS FROM
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY FRIDAY, INDUCING A STRONG SURFACE LOW VIA SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOUNTER WARM FRONTAL ACTIVATION AS A RESULT AND LIFT NORTH OF THE
CWFA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, LEADING TO DEEPER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND ADVECTING WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH GETS PUSHED OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
IN RESPONSE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PICK UP ON SOME FORM OF UPSLOPE
SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WELL WITH WAA SHOWERS
NOT BEING RULED OUT EITHER FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS, WITH
SOME OF THE WESTERN PIEDMONT ZONES AS THE CWFA BECOMES SOCKED IN
WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RUN
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER,
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS END UP 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A DIGGING POSITIVELY-TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REPLACE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS ON FRIDAY. DEEP
LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT FROM THIS ON FRIDAY AS A
CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED FROM THE LOWER
MS VALLEY THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND TN VALLEY ON FRIDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE ARE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE TIMING AND HOW FAR EAST
THE CONVEYOR BELT OF CONVECTION SHIFTS INTO THE CWFA. SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE PULLS THE BETTER QPF RESPONSE INTO THE NC/TN BORDER
BY 00Z FRIDAY, WHILE OTHERS KEEP THE HEAVIER PRECIP JUST TO THE
WEST. THE BETTER DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWFA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD, HOWEVER, PWAT VALUES SURGE ABOVE AN INCH
AND PROVIDES AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR HEAVIER PRECIP WITH
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IF THE DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE WHEN THE
MAIN LINE MOVES ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THE BEGINNING PORTIONS OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. WITH DEEP LOW-LEVEL WAA IN PLACE BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT, EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RUN 15-20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S, LEADING TO A
MUGGY AIRMASS FOR EARLY JANUARY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1252 PM EST TUESDAY:
KEY MESSAGE #1: ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY,
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATTER OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY WAA FLOW AHEAD OF THE ENCROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL HELP KEEP EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WITH POCKETS OF
LIGHT PRECIP, AHEAD OF THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BETTER DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE EVEN HAS IT EVOLVING INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW. IN THIS CASE, THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT WOULD BE SLOWED DOWN EVEN FURTHER AS THE TROUGH WOULD
ONLY GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE PLUME AND ENHANCEMENT FROM THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STREAK MOVES ACROSS THE CWFA
FRIDAY NIGHT (MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS) THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS
THE REST OF THE CWFA AND LINGERING OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE QPF RESPONSE IS BEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS
THE FRONT WEAKENS AS IT SHIFTS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. NOT REALLY
SEEING A GOOD SIGNAL FOR A FLASH FLOOD THREAT AS ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS AND LATEST QPF PROBS OF 2" OR GREATER REMAINS BELOW 50%
IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS, BASICALLY 0% OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. A
SEVERE THREAT STILL CAN'T BE RULED OUT AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 55-65
KTS AND LOW SBCAPE (<200 J/KG) MAY OVERLAP WITH THE MAIN CONVEYOR
BELT OF CONVECTION DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD SATURDAY. BETTER SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA, BUT THE HIGHEST
CAPE VALUES ARE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY IN OUR
CWFA. WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR, BUT THE LINE OF QPF RESPONSE
SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE CWFA BY SUNDAY MORNING AT THE LATEST.
KEY MESSAGE #2: TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A POST-FRONTAL REGIME WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE CWFA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT COMPLETES A FULL FROPA BY SUNDAY AND
CAA FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND BEHIND ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME OUTSIDE OF
THE HIGHEST PEAKS. COOLING TEMPERATURES AND ENOUGH MOISTURE WITHIN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD PROMOTE LIGHT NORTHWEST
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TENNESSEE BORDER
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED,
MAINLY ABOVE 3500'. OTHERWISE, THE PATTERN REMAINS DRY THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WEEK, BUT GUIDANCE SHOWS A RELATIVELY
ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM JET GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER BY THE VERY
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH COULD SET THE AREA UP FOR MORE
PRECIP BEYOND D7. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: A TRICKY AND LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS
PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MVFR HAS RETURNED TO KAND AND WILL
SPREAD TO KGSP/KGMU EITHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING. LOW VFR LIKELY AT KAVL THIS AFTERNOON BUT MVFR POSSIBLE.
SHOULD STAY VFR AT KCLT/KHKY. GUSTY SW WINDS ALSO DEVELOP, BUT
LIKELY ONLY OCCASIONAL GUSTS AT KAVL/KHKY. WITH THE BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, FOG SHOULD BE LESS LIKELY.
THERE WILL BE DRYING AND SOME LOW LEVEL NW WINDS OVERNIGHT, BUT THE
H925 LAYER REMAINS MOIST AND A LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPS. THIS
WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST MVFR CIGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE GUIDANCE IS VERY MIXED WITH EVERYTHING FROM VFR TO LIFR CIGS
AND/OR VSBY. HAVE GONE WITH THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO OF MVFR EARLY
FOR THE SC SITES AND KAVL WITH IMPROVEMENT LATE TONIGHT AS THE DRIER
AIR MOVES IN. KHKY HAS MVFR VIS AND CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. KCLT IS
THE MOST TRICKY UNFORTUNATELY WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE ALMOST A
CERTAINTY. HREF PROBS SHOW IFR OR EVEN LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE, SO HAVE
GONE SCT005 BKN015 TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL. WIND GUSTS DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A TURN TO THE WSW DURING THE DAY. KAVL SEES
SSW BECOMING NNW OVERNIGHT. KCLT WILL SEE A TURN TO WNW FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: EXPECT DRY, VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
BRINGS RAIN CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
CLEARING SKIES WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 01-07
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 70 1913 20 2014 58 1913 -1 2014
KCLT 77 1890 24 1988 62 1998 6 2014
KGSP 71 2012 27 2014 59 1998 5 2014
1988
1912
RECORDS FOR 01-08
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 68 2019 13 1970 55 1937 -1 1970
1946
KCLT 74 1946 21 1970 61 1998 8 2015
1907 1970
1890
KGSP 72 1907 24 1970 56 1998 5 1970
1946
RECORDS FOR 01-09
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 71 1937 13 1970 55 1937 -4 1970
1930
KCLT 72 2008 25 1970 60 1946 4 1970
KGSP 74 1949 28 1970 57 1946 1 1970
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CAC
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...RWH
CLIMATE...
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