880
FXUS62 KGSP 071757
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1257 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH NEAR-
RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1220 PM WEDNESDAY:
KEY MESSAGE #1: COOLER THURSDAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL AS DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY. DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN WITH THE HIGH
OVERNIGHT; HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LESS DRYING LEADING TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG OR LOW STRATUS. THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT
THAT THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY HAS A BETTER CHANCE AS THE
DRIER AIR MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT THAT FAR; HOWEVER, THE HREF SHOWS
LITTLE TO CHANCE OF FOG OR LOW CLOUDS, EVEN THERE. GIVEN THIS, DID
GO WITH SOME PATCHY FOG THERE. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. THE CLOUDS AND A COOLER AIR MASS
WILL KEEP HIGHS OUT OF RECORD TERRITORY, BUT STILL 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1234 PM EST WEDNESDAY:
KEY MESSAGE: ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY,
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATTER
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AND
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL BE IN THE MIDST OF LIFTING ACROSS
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
DEVELOPING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THROUGH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. THE
SURFACE HIGH FROM THE NEAR-TERM WILL FULLY SHIFT OFFSHORE,
CREATING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW. AS A RESULT, EXPECT AN UPTICK IN WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THE INITIAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL STALL
SOUTH OF THE CWFA WILL INDUCE WARM FRONTAL ACTIVATION AND LIFT NORTH
OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. STOUT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WAA WILL FILTER IN AS A RESULT AND RAISE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
50S AND SOME LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 60S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH INTO QUEBEC/ONTARIO
ON FRIDAY, A POSITIVELY-TILED DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL REPLACE THE
SHORTWAVE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
RESULT FROM THIS AND CREATE A CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE BEING PULLED
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND TN VALLEY. THE
CONVECTION WITHIN THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL TRAIN ACROSS THIS AREA
AND GRADUALLY NUDGE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME PERIOD FRIDAY. CAN'T
RULE OUT A FEW WAA SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
OVER THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT ALONG THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING
SLOPES. THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND LIFT WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CWFA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO PUSH IN BETTER QPF ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD WITH THE INITIAL SLUG OF MOISTURE
AND INCREASING LLJ (40-50 KTS). PWAT VALUES (1.25"-1.50") SURGE
TO THE 90TH PERCENTILE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE AREA BECOMES ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR, AHEAD OF THE
MAIN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION PER MODEL
GUIDANCE IS STILL JUST WEST OF THE CWFA FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL BE
IN THE PROCESS OF PROPAGATING TOWARDS THE NC/TN BORDER BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. WITH DEEP LOW-LEVEL WAA IN PLACE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT,
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RUN 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS RUN ~25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 55-65 KTS WILL HELP KEEP THE LINE OF CONVECTION
ORGANIZED AS IT CROSSES INTO THE CWFA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. 0-3KM
SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS AND BETTER UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET STREAK WILL BRING IN A POTENTIAL QLCS
ACROSS THE AREA LATER SATURDAY. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE LACK
OF SBCAPE AS MODEL GUIDANCE STRUGGLE TO FIND MUCH OF ANY AS THE LINE
PUSHES THROUGH. HOWEVER, ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRESENT (250-750
J/KG) WITH THE ORGANIZED LINEAR CONVECTION AND SHOULD PRODUCE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. THE
LINE IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE, SO THE FLOOD THREAT IS MINIMAL AT
BEST. CAN'T TOTALLY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF A SEVERE GUST
DUE TO THE LINEAR STRUCTURE OF THE CONVECTION, BUT UNTIL AN UPTICK
IN SBCAPE IS EVIDENT, NOT OVERLY CONCERNED FOR A SEVERE THREAT AT
THIS TIME, BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED LEADING UP TO SATURDAY
AS THE KINEMATICS ARE IN PLACE WITH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR, MOISTURE,
AND ELEVATED SRH VALUES. THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST AND SHOULD CLEAR
THE CWFA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY OR SHORTLY THERE AFTER. THE HIGHEST
QPF RESPONSE IS IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WHERE 1-2" OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER EAST. PIEDMONT LOCATIONS
LIKELY RECEIVE A QUICK SHOT OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THE MAIN LINE BEFORE
DRYING OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
REMAIN VERY WARM WITH VALUES 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD SLIP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW
FOR CAA TO FILTER IN, WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
20S AT THE HIGHER PEAKS AND 30S ELSEWHERE. SOME NORTHWEST FLOW
PRECIPITATION CAN'T BE RULED OUT SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND 3000'. ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATION
(<1") IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND THE
FRONT OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT THE TYPICAL
DOWNSLOPING WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF CAA THROUGH AT LEAST DAYBREAK
SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1255 PM EST WEDNESDAY:
KEY MESSAGE #1: TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY.
A POST-FRONTAL REGIME WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE CWFA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT COMPLETES A FULL FROPA BY SUNDAY AND CAA
FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT AND BEHIND ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST
PEAKS. LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WELL AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING UPPER
TOUGH AND SURFACE LOW LIFTS INTO ATLANTIC CANADA. GUIDANCE VARY ON
THE DEGREE OF NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW AND AMOUNTS, BUT CONFIDENCE FOR
AN INCH OR MORE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RISE
TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES SUNDAY AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS
THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING, WHILE LOW CLOUD COVER FROM THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AND PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE TN BORDER KEEP
TEMPERATURES VERY COLD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. CAA FULLY SETTLES
IN SUNDAY NIGHT AS A CONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PUSHES INTO THE
MID/LOWER MS VALLEY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RUN
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST WILL BE IN STORE AS THE VERY
DRY AND COLDER AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON
MONDAY SHOULD RUN UP TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE #2: GRADUAL REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WHILE REMAINING DRY WITH AN UPTICK IN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL ON TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY. THE AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL BE VERY DRY AND SHOULD ALLOW
RH VALUES TO DIP BELOW 30% MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS, LEADING
TO AN INCREASE IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. OTHERWISE, THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR OUR NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
JUST BEYOND D7. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND SLIGHTLY TO NEAR-NORMAL
VALUES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: OTHER THAN SOME MVFR TO LOW VFR STRATOCU OVER
THE MOUNTAINS, SKIES ARE SKC AT THIS TIME. WSW WINDS HAVE PICKED UP
IN SPEED, WITH SOME GUSTS, AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY TURN TO THE NW THEN N AND NE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH, ALBEIT AT LOWER SPEEDS. KAVL WILL SEE N WIND THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL SUGGESTING FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT, EXCEPT FOR KAND WHERE SOME GUIDANCE SIGNALS ANOTHER ROUND
OF LIFR POSSIBLE. THE HREF SHOWS LITTLE TO NO PROBABILITY FOR ANY
RESTRICTIONS AT ALL, EVEN AT KAND. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST
VFR WITH INCREASING CIRRUS FOR NOW AND FEW002 AT KAND TO SHOW THE
POTENTIAL. WINDS TURN S TO SE BY LATE MORNING AT KAVL AND ELSEWHERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: EXPECT DRY, VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT BRINGS
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. CLEARING SKIES WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY. VFR WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 01-07
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 70 1913 20 2014 58 1913 -1 2014
KCLT 77 1890 24 1988 62 1998 6 2014
KGSP 71 2012 27 2014 59 1998 5 2014
1988
1912
RECORDS FOR 01-08
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 68 2019 13 1970 55 1937 -1 1970
1946
KCLT 74 1946 21 1970 61 1998 8 2015
1907 1970
1890
KGSP 72 1907 24 1970 56 1998 5 1970
1946
RECORDS FOR 01-09
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 71 1937 13 1970 55 1937 -4 1970
1930
KCLT 72 2008 25 1970 60 1946 4 1970
KGSP 74 1949 28 1970 57 1946 1 1970
RECORDS FOR 01-10
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 74 1937 16 1982 53 1898 -6 1982
KCLT 76 1949 22 1886 59 1937 4 1970
1886
KGSP 79 1949 25 1982 56 1937 2 1982
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CAC
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...RWH
CLIMATE...
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