223
FXUS62 KGSP 080611
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
111 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH NEAR-
RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1047 PM WEDNESDAY:
KEY MESSAGE #1: SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY, BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL. A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BECOMES RATHER AMPLIFIED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
AN INTENSE PACIFIC JET DIVES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND CARVES OUT
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL IN TURN
AMPLIFY A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING NORTH FROM THE GULF THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS. HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, BUT THE
ARRIVAL OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW RECORDS, BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE
LOW TO UPPER 60S. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY FOG FREE THIS
MORNING, BUT SOME DENSE FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM ELBERT TO
GREENWOOD COUNTIES ON THE WARM/MOIST SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. HEADING
INTO TONIGHT, THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES LIFTS
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL MASS
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL FOSTER THE RETURN OF
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AS FLOW SHIFTS TO OUT OF THE SOUTH AND THE WEAK
BOUNDARY QUICKLY LIFTS BACK NORTH. A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1130 PM WED:
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FRIDAY AND EXPANDING INTO THE
PIEDMONT, WITH HEAVY RAIN LIKELY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
LIGHT PRECIP MAY BE ONGOING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS DURING FRIDAY MORNING, BUT SETUP DOES NOT CHANGE
APPRECIABLY UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES EAST OF
THE GREAT LAKES, AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT SHIFTS OVER AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE TRAILING FRONT. PWATS REACH AN INITIAL PEAK
FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT, AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WHICH PUTS
THEM AROUND 3 SD ABOVE CLIMO. MUCH OF THE DYNAMIC LIFT OFFERED IN
THIS STAGE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET
STREAK OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHICH AMPLIFIES IN SUCH A POSITION THAT
MOST OF THE RESULTING UPPER DIVERGENCE REMAINS WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. HENCE MODEL QPF RESPONSE IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR
MUCH OF OUR AREA FRI OR FRI NIGHT, WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION NOT
LOOKING ESPECIALLY LIKELY AT THAT TIME. THE TRACK OF THE LOW DOES
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS OVER THE UPPER OH
VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO OUR NORTH, BUT SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG THE FRONT, NEAR NORTH MS, AS
SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
STALLS ITS FORWARD PROGRESS OVER THE TN VALLEY VICINITY (EAST TN AND
NORTHERN AL, GA). HENCE THE UPWARD TREND IN POPS/QPF SLOWS OR EVEN
REVERSES FOR A TIME IN OUR I-85 CORRIDOR FRI NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN RECENT DAYS IN SHOWING STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DEVELOPING IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TN VALLEY
AREAS SAT NIGHT AND SHIFTING NORTHWARD THRU SAT, PARTIALLY
OVERLAPPING WITH THE UPPER DIVERGENCE. COUPLED WITH PWATS ALSO
PEAKING AROUND 3 SD THERE, INTENSE BANDS OF RAINFALL APPEAR POSSIBLE
IN THE TN VALLEY, AND ALSO THE ADJACENT MOUNTAINS OF SW NC AND NE GA,
WITH THE BEST COVERAGE/RATES LIKELY OCCURRING 06Z-18Z SAT; OROGRAPHIC
LIFT WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN POSING AT LEAST A SMALL HEAVY RAIN
THREAT THERE. FLOOD THREAT WILL BE MITIGATED TO SOME DEGREE BY DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LOW CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OWING
TO WEAK LAPSE RATES IN THE EXCEPTIONALLY MOIST SETUP.
THE NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SATURDAY SHOULD
ALLOW A DECREASE IN RATES OVER OUR MOUNTAIN AREAS BY AFTERNOON,
THOUGH BY THAT TIME LIFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH
LOOKS TO REACH THE NC MOUNTAINS BY AROUND SUNSET. POPS THUS DO
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. POPS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE FORECAST NOW DRY IN ALMOST ALL AREAS SUNDAY; MODEL
SPREAD IN FRONTAL TIMING HAS NARROWED AND THERE IS LESS OF A SIGNAL
FOR WRAPAROUND NW FLOW PRECIP, THE LATTER NOW WARRANTING ONLY A VERY
SMALL MENTION ALONG OUR NORTHERN TN BORDER.
KEY MESSAGE 2: STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ALONG AND BEHIND COLD FRONT.
THE SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL WRAP INTO AN UPPER LOW DIVING OUT
OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE ON SATURDAY, WHILE SFC LOW TRACKS TOWARD LAKE
ERIE. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS KY/TN DURING THE DAY. THE LLJ
PRECEDING IT WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE SW MOUNTAIN
RIDGES EARLY SAT. POOR LAPSE RATES STILL ARE EXPECTED TO
LIMIT INSTABILITY, THOUGH GFS/EC/GDPS DETERMINISTIC SBCAPE HAVE ALL
TRENDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN OUR CWA THAN ON EARLIER RUNS, POSSIBLY
WITH FRONT BEING MORE IDEALLY TIMED NEAR PEAK HEATING. 0-3KM BULK
SHEAR OF 40+ KT SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE; LIMITING FACTORS FOR
HSLC SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE THE 500MB SHORTWAVE AXIS TRAILING A BIT
TOO FAR BEHIND THE FRONT, AND POSSIBLY UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION OF
SHEAR VECTORS W.R.T. THE FRONT. NEVERTHELESS WE WILL BE MONITORING
FOR TORNADO SPIN-UPS ALONG THE LINE AND IF NOTHING ELSE A FINE LINE OF
SHALLOW CONVECTION COULD SERVE TO BRING DOWN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EVEN
IF NOT TORNADIC. HAVE GONE WITH WIND GUSTS ABOVE THE NBM TO ADVERTISE
PEAK VALUES AROUND 30-35 MPH IN MANY PIEDMONT LOCATIONS.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN STRONG GUSTS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY WARRANTING AT LEAST A
HIGH-ELEVATION WIND ADVISORY. GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE AND 850MB PEAKS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS BASE OF SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE CWA; WITH
DOWNSLOPING OFFSETTING CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, GOOD MIXING SHOULD
OCCUR, REACHING THE 30-40 KT WINDS AT 850 MB AND RESULTING IN 25-30
MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE AREA; ANY WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS
PROBABLY WOULD CONTINUE THRU SUNDAY OR EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT, AS GUSTS
PROBABLY WON'T TAPER OFF UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS WEST OF THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY. LOWS SUN NIGHT 5-10 BELOW NORMAL; ANY WIND CHILL ISSUES
WOULD BE CONFINED TO VERY HIGH ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1220 AM THU:
KEY MESSAGE: GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH TYPICAL JANUARY
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. NEXT TROUGH BRINGING
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WEDNESDAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT MONDAY AS SFC HIGH CENTERS
OVER THE GULF/ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN. MAX TEMPS END UP ABOUT A
CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE. SLIGHTLY WARMER
MON NIGHT, WITH SW FLOW DEVELOPING AGAIN TUE AS NEXT TROUGH BEGINS TO
DIG ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MODELS/ENSEMBLES NOT YET IN GREAT AGREEMENT
AS TO THE DISPOSITION OF THAT TROUGH, BUT A NUMBER OF MEMBERS SHOW
SHORTWAVE DEEPENING WITHIN THE TROUGH OVER THE OH OR MID-MS VALLEYS,
WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING FOR OUR MOUNTAINS CIRCA WEDNESDAY, IF NOT
AREAS FARTHER EAST. THERE IS NOT AS GOOD OF AGREEMENT ON WHETHER THE
TROUGH INDUCES COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS, WHICH APPEARS THE MORE LIKELY
WAY PRECIP WOULD RESULT FOR THE NON-MOUNTAIN AREAS. CLOUDS AND SMALL
PRECIP CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST WED AS A RESULT OF THESE
SOLUTIONS, INCREASING SLIGHTLY WED NIGHT. SNOW IS MENTIONED ONLY FOR
THE MOUNTAINS WITH MOST OF THE COASTAL LOW SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING IT
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY OR ENTIRELY RAIN IN THE PIEDMONT.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND DAYTIME HOURS AND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
IN COVERAGE. BY TONIGHT, INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WILL
ALLOW CLOUD BASES TO LOWER DOWN TO THE 5KFT RANGE, BUT CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD. ANY FOG TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
THE MOIST SIDE OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTH BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND
THEN SOUTHEAST.
OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONT BRINGS INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. VFR SHOULD RETURN AT THE START OF
NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 01-08
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 68 2019 13 1970 55 1937 -1 1970
1946
KCLT 74 1946 21 1970 61 1998 8 2015
1907 1970
1890
KGSP 72 1907 24 1970 56 1998 5 1970
1946
RECORDS FOR 01-09
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 71 1937 13 1970 55 1937 -4 1970
1930
KCLT 72 2008 25 1970 60 1946 4 1970
KGSP 74 1949 28 1970 57 1946 1 1970
RECORDS FOR 01-10
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 74 1937 16 1982 53 1898 -6 1982
KCLT 76 1949 22 1886 59 1937 4 1970
1886
KGSP 79 1949 25 1982 56 1937 2 1982
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CAC
NEAR TERM...TW
SHORT TERM...JCW
LONG TERM...JCW
AVIATION...TW
CLIMATE...JCW
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