873
FXUS62 KGSP 081838
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
138 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH NEAR-
RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1 PM THURSDAY:
KEY MESSAGE 1: INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. IMPACTS
REMAIN MINIMAL.
A SHALLOW CAD SETUP IS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHEAST RIDGES SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF THE PLAINS TROUGH, WHILE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THAT DRY LAYER IS SLOWLY ERODING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE.
LOW CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LIFT IS
SHALLOW, LARGELY CONFINED BELOW 800 MB, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT BOTH
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. AS A RESULT, SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS LATE
TONIGHT.
FROM AN IMPACTS STANDPOINT, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND
LOCALIZED WITH NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER, WITH ANY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS MAINLY CONFINED TO RIDGE TOPS EMBEDDED IN THE STRATUS
DECK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE ON FRIDAY, WITH STEADIER RAIN
LIMITED MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ELEVATED, ESPECIALLY WHERE CAD MAY HOLD.
ON FRIDAY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH SOUTHEAST ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA DUE
TO DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING AND DEEP LAYER FLOW ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY. THIS WILL DELAY EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION,
KEEPING THE BEST FORCING AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
MOST OF THE PIEDMONT, ESPECIALLY THE LOWER AND SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS, MAY REMAIN DRY THROUGH PEAK HEATING. THE MAIN EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS, WHERE STEADIER
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF EXCEEDING ONE INCH OF RAINFALL
THERE DURING THE DAY, WITH PROBABILITIES OF TWO INCHES OR MORE
REMAINING BELOW 10 PERCENT. GIVEN RECENT DRY CONDITIONS, IMPACTS
FROM RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
TEMPERATURE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN USUAL, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT, WHERE ENSEMBLE SPREADS REACH 8 TO
10 DEGREES. THIS REFLECTS UNCERTAINTY TIED TO A HYBRID OR IN SITU
CAD SETUP AND THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION RELATIVE TO DAYTIME
HEATING. GIVEN TYPICAL MODEL BIASES IN THESE SCENARIOS, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE NUDGED BELOW NBM GUIDANCE IN AREAS WHERE THE WEDGE
IS MOST LIKELY TO PERSIST AND WHERE CLOUD COVER OR RAIN MAY ARRIVE
NEAR PEAK HEATING.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1215 PM THU:
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH HEAVY
RAIN LIKELY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
THE AREA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS
STALLS THE FRONT TO OUR WEST FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW MOVES NORTH
AND DRAGS THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. VERY HIGH PW
VALUES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS COMBINED WITH
STRONG FORCING WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SHOWERS CAN TRAIN BEFORE THE FRONT BEGINS
MOVING ON SATURDAY. STILL, THE LACK OF STRONG CONVECTION MAY LIMIT
THE RAINFALL RATES AND THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT
THE FLOOD THREAT. THAT SAID, CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
THE EVENT UNFOLDS.
THERE REMAINS A CONCERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AS THE
FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. VERY STRONG BULK SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT, BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED. THE OPS MODELS, EVEN
THE NAM WHICH USUALLY HAS HIGHER CAPE VALUES, SHOW ALMOST NO SBCAPE
AND VERY LOW MUCAPE. THE SREF SHOWS ONLY A LOW POTENTIAL FOR MUCAPE
ABOVE 100 J/KG. THE LATEST LREF ENSEMBLE THOUGH SHOWS A VERY HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR 100 J/KG AND MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR 250 J/KG.
THEREFORE, THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. THE CURRENT
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOKS REASONABLE.
PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOST. HOWEVER,
GUIDANCE NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE AND
SHORT BURST OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT SUNDAY DRY, BUT THIS
WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ALONG AND BEHIND COLD FRONT.
THE LLJ PRECEDING THE FRONT WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE SW MOUNTAIN RIDGES EARLY SAT. A FINE LINE OF SHALLOW CONVECTION
COULD SERVE TO BRING DOWN STRONG WIND GUSTS. HAVE GONE WITH WIND
GUSTS ABOVE THE NBM TO ADVERTISE PEAK VALUES AROUND 30-35 MPH IN
MANY PIEDMONT LOCATIONS.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN STRONG GUSTS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY WARRANTING AT LEAST A
HIGH-ELEVATION WIND ADVISORY. GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE AND 850MB PEAKS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS BASE OF SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE CWA; WITH
DOWNSLOPING OFFSETTING CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, GOOD MIXING SHOULD
OCCUR, REACHING THE 30-40 KT WINDS AT 850 MB AND RESULTING IN 25-30
MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE AREA; ANY WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS
PROBABLY WOULD CONTINUE THRU SUNDAY OR EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT, AS GUSTS
PROBABLY WON'T TAPER OFF UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS WEST OF THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY. LOWS SUN NIGHT 5-10 BELOW NORMAL; ANY WIND CHILL ISSUES
WOULD BE CONFINED TO VERY HIGH ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1240 PM THU:
KEY MESSAGE: GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH TYPICAL JANUARY
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. NEXT TROUGH BRINGING
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH. HIGHS MONDAY END UP A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL MONDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TUE AS NEXT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
MIDWEST. THE TROUGH DEEPENS WITH AN UPPER LOW DIVING TO THE GULF
COAST BY THURSDAY. SOME GUIDANCE WANTS TO MOVE A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TO OUR SOUTH DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THE GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE INITIAL CYCLOGENESIS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST KEEPING ANY PRECIP
MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AS WELL. SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS ALSO
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BUT CLOSER TO OUR AREA. THEY DO AGREE ON
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THOUGH. THIS
LEADS TO QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR NOW, THE MODEL BLEND LIMITS
CHANCE POP TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. ANY SNOW
IS LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS WHERE TEMPS MAY BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
IT WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH OVERCAST
CIRRUS CANOPY OVERSPREADING THE AREA. LIGHT E TO NE WINDS (EXCEPT SE
AT AVL DUE TO CHANNELING UP FRENCH BROAD VALLEY) UNDER 10 KT HAVE
BECOME ESTABLISHED AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL HELP
SATURATE THE LOW-LEVELS TONIGHT. STRATUS DECK SHOULD FORM THIS
EVENING AND EVENTUALLY LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS THE AREA FROM SW TO NE
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP IN THE MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS WERE ADDED TO THE TAFS FOR
AND, GMU, AND GSP WHERE PROBABILITIES OF CIGS BELOW 1 KFT ARE ABOVE
50-60 PERCENT AND HIGHEST ACROSS THE REGION. ELSEWHERE WHERE THE
PROBABILITY OF IFR CIGS IS LOWER, A SCT DECK BELOW 1 KFT WAS
ADVERTISED AFTER SUNRISE. USED NBM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE TO HONE IN
ON TIMING OF LOWERING CIGS. THIS CONSERVATIVE APPROACH YIELDED A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ONSET THAN THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC LAMP GUIDANCE.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z ON FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE LAMP GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A STRENGTHENING 5-10 KT
SOUTHERLY WIND DURING THE DAY, IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE LIGHTER AND
MORE VARIABLE, ESPECIALLY AS YOU GET CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS
TERMINALS. FARTHER EAST IN THE PIEDMONT LIKE CLT, THE SOUTHERLY WIND
MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED, BUT IT MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER FOR
THAT TO HAPPEN.
OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME WITH
ELEVATED CHANCES FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR THE PIEDMONT TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JRK
NEAR TERM...JRK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JRK
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