668
FXUS62 KGSP 092348
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
648 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 640 PM FRIDAY:
KEY MESSAGE 1: WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
A SHORTWAVE CARVES A TROF OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST AND MOVES
ALONG THE FRONT AS IS PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY. DEEP
MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TONIGHT.
STRONG FORCING MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY AS UPPER
DIVERGENCE INCREASES WITH A JET STREAK. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, MAINLY WEST OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY WHERE
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES. QPF IN THESE AREAS WILL
RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS. STILL, GIVEN
THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, THE FLOOD THREAT REMAINS LOW.
ELSEWHERE QPF WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.5 TO AROUND 1 INCH. SBCAPE
REMAINS LIMITED ON SATURDAY, BUT MUCAPE WILL INCREASE, POSSIBLY AS
HIGH AS 500 J/KG. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE. THERE WILL
BE PLENTY OF BULK SHEAR AND HIGH HELICITY VALUES, BUT THE LACK OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT. CAN'T RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-85 CORRIDOR WHERE ANY INSTABILITY WOULD BE MORE LIKELY. SHOWERS
QUICKLY TAPER OFF SATURDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT,
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
FRONT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH
ELSEWHERE. RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT ANY WIND GUSTS ABOVE 45 MPH
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WIND
ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE BUT WINDS LOOK TO BE JUST SHORT OF CRITERIA
FOR NOW.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1216 PM EST FRIDAY:
KEY MESSAGE #1: COLD FRONT WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD BRING ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
COLD FRONT SHOULD COMPLETE ITS FROPA ACROSS THE CWFA BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY AS CAA SETTLES IN. ENOUGH COLD AIR, SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TN BORDER FOR THE FIRST
PART OF SUNDAY AS THE VORT MAX IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED,
BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A QUICK HALF INCH TO AN INCH AT THE HIGHEST
PEAKS. VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BLOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE ADVISORY-LEVEL GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE
NEAR-TERM UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOW DEWPOINTS
TO TANK INTO THE 10S AND 20S AS THE WIND FULLY BLOWS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST, WHILE TEMPERATURES MAX OUT INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. IN THIS CASE,
RH VALUES COULD DIP BELOW 30%, WHILE WIND GUSTS ARE ELEVATED AT
25-35 MPH FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THIS WOULD CAUSE SOME FIRE
CONCERNS, HOWEVER, RAIN FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY SHOULD KEEP FUEL
MOISTURES IN CHECK AND ALLEVIATE THIS ALTOGETHER. WILL BE WORTH
MONITORING LEADING UP TO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES ON SUNDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS
AND END UP 5-10 DEGREES BELOW-NORMAL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE
CAA WILL BE IN FULL AFFECT.
KEY MESSAGE #2: DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
A POST-FRONTAL REGIME WILL BE IN STORE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
AS THE FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND A CONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH SLIDES DOWN THE MS VALLEY
AND NOSES INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY. WITH COOLER THICKNESSES IN
PLACE UNDERNEATH FLAT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS THE CAA BEHIND THE
FRONT BECOMES FULLY ESTABLISHED, EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
BE UP TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1249 PM EST FRIDAY:
KEY MESSAGE: DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD TUESDAY. PASSING TROUGH BRINGS
BACK CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK.
SURFACE HIGH WILL FULLY SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR-NORMAL. MODEL
GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD CONSENSUS OF A DIGGING CLIPPER-LIKE TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND EVEN
REACHING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT THE CWFA. MOST MODELS SEND A
COLD FRONT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING IN POPS LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. CAA WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH AND ALSO ACTIVE
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE GULF/SOUTHEAST COAST, LEADING TO A
POTENTIAL SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SPIT PRECIP
BACK OVER THE AREA WITH DIFFERING P-TYPES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
SCENARIO, ESPECIALLY BEING 5-7 DAYS OUT, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THE MOUNTAINS WILL MOST LIKELY BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW IF THE PRECIP CAN WORK THAT FAR NORTH AND WITH ANY
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW THAT DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL ALONG
THE NC/TN BORDER. GENERAL CONSENSUS AS WELL IS THAT THE PATTERN
REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH COULD
MEAN MULTIPLE WAVES OF STORM SYSTEMS MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
EVEN BEYOND D7. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW-NORMAL THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: A SLOW-MOVING, WEAK WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED TO
NEAR A KAND-KGSP-KCLT AXIS EARLY THIS EVENING, RESULTING IN
IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR/IFR CIGS TO VFR AT THE UPSTATE SC TERMINALS AND
KCLT, ALTHOUGH MOSTLY MVFR VISBY PERSISTS IN BR AND AREAS OF -RA.
MEANWHILE, LIFR CONDITIONS REMAIN AT KHKY, AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO
MOSTLY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SAT MORNING, WITH PERIODS OF VLIFR
POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING. AS ONE SMALL AREA OF MOSTLY -RA MOVES
EAST OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA OVER THE FIRST 1-2 HOURS OF THE
PERIOD, A LARGER AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL BEGIN OVERSPREADING
WESTERN AREAS, WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO FALL AT THE UPSTATE SC
TERMINALS AND KAVL BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY PERIODS
OF IFR VISBY. CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR/LIFR AT ALL
SITES BETWEEN 04-08Z. ISOLATED TS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING, BUT THE PROBABILITY IS ONLY 10-20% AND THEREFORE NOT WORTH
A TAF MENTION. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT TO VISBY AND ESP CIGS IS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME MODEST
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE EVENING. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY TONIGHT, BECOMING SW
AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT MOST SITES (LIGHTER
AT KAVL) FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: RESTRICTIONS DISSIPATE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT COULD BRING PRECIPITATION AND RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CAC
NEAR TERM...JDL/RWH
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...JDL
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