053
FXUS62 KGSP 101933
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
233 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD RAIN LINGERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT,
WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER EMBEDDED AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY:
KEY MESSAGE 1: LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED FLOODING IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS DIMINISHING AS
CONVECTION STRUGGLES TO ORGANIZE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE PIEDMONT.
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED ACROSS THE
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FOOTHILLS NEAR SUNSET AND MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT LATER THIS EVENING. A WARM
FRONT REMAINS DRAPED NEAR THE GA, SC, AND NC FOOTHILLS, PLACING MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT, WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES AS
WARM, MOIST AIR OVERRUNS THE BOUNDARY. OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT COMBINED WITH MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AROUND 200 TO 300 J/KG HAS FOCUSED CONVECTION AND
ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS
RABUN COUNTY, GA AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN NC AND SC BORDER
REGION, PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING. RECENT HREF AND REFS GUIDANCE
HIGHLIGHTED THIS CORRIDOR WELL, AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE DOES NOT
SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
FARTHER SOUTH WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA, UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA, AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA PIEDMONT, INSTABILITY IS SURFACE BASED AND SUPPORTS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
ROUGHLY THE 2 TO 4 PM TIME FRAME. HOWEVER, CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED
TO ORGANIZE UPSTREAM, AND THIS HAS TEMPERED CONFIDENCE IN STORM
INTENSITY AS ACTIVITY MOVES EASTWARD. WHILE ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE, THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS TRENDING LOWER AND
SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF AND LOCALIZED, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE
PRIMARY HAZARD.
KEY MESSAGE 2: GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY MAY
LEAD TO ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL, ESPECIALLY AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PEAKS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON, OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA, THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA, AND THE
NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT.
WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT, THEN STRENGTHEN
AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS, WHERE GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ABOVE 3500 FEET. THESE WINDS MAY RESULT IN DOWNED TREE
LIMBS, ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES, AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALSO SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE SNOW ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE INCH, THOUGH LOCALLY
UP TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THE SMOKIES ABOVE 5000 FEET.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A CONDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERN EXISTS SATURDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT IF RAINFALL FAILS TO
MATERIALIZE THIS AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY HINGE ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT PROGRESSES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME CAM GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SHARP RAINFALL CUTOFF NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF I-85, WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS SUPPORT A MORE ORGANIZED LINE MOVING
EASTWARD AND PRODUCING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
IF RAINFALL REMAINS LIMITED, A CONDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER RISK COULD
DEVELOP SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CAROLINA PIEDMONT
AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS COMBINE WITH RAPIDLY FALLING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BEHIND THE FRONT. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE USED IN THE NBM OFTEN
STRUGGLES WITH POST FRONTAL MIXING REGIMES, LEADING TO A HIGH
DEWPOINT AND RH BIAS. AS A RESULT, PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS MORE
INFORMATIVE IN THIS CASE. EXPERIMENTAL NBM JOINT PROBABILITIES OF RH
AT OR BELOW 25 PERCENT COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 30 MPH
REMAIN VERY LOW, GENERALLY 5 PERCENT OR LESS, SUGGESTING THAT RED
FLAG HEADLINE CRITERIA ARE UNLIKELY TO BE MET.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1200 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE #1: DRY WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY, LINGERING OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON BUT THE RETURN OF LIGHTER WINDS WILL ACT TO LIMIT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY INCREASES
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL END UP NEAR NORMAL TO JUST BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS, BECOMING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL END UP ~3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL END UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL END UP ~5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EST SATURDAY...
30
KEY MESSAGE #1: A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING.
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL DRAG A PAIR OF SURFACE COLD FRONTS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FRONTS PUSH EAST EARLY
THURSDAY. THE LATEST GFS APPEARS TO BE THE MOST BULLISH REGARDING
MOISTURE, SHOWING PRECIP CHANCES AREA-WIDE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE MODEL DEPICTS A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING RIGHT OVER THE
CAROLINAS. MEANWHILE, THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF KEEP MOISTURE CONFINED
TO MAINLY THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AS THESE MODELS DO NOT DEPICT
A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING. WITH MODELS STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT
REGARDING HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM,
CONFIDENCE ON POPS REMAINS LOW FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH TO ALLOW NORTHWEST SNOW TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK PLAUSIBLE FOR MOST COUNTIES ALONG THE
NC/TN BORDER BUT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4,000 FEET COULD SEE A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW DEVELOP. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 COULD ALSO SEE A
BRIEF SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR EAST MOISTURE
DEVELOPS. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
IF PRECIP DEVELOPS. ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY, POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: LOW CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT THIS AFTERNOON
FOLLOWING WARM FRONT PASSAGE, WITH VFR CEILINGS NOW ESTABLISHED AT
ALL TERMINALS AT THE START OF THE 18Z TAF CYCLE. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, AND BRIEF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON,
MAINLY IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
A BRIEF WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THROUGH ROUGHLY 22Z, THOUGH
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH ORGANIZATION. AS A RESULT,
TSRA WAS INCLUDED ONLY AT THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS WHERE
INSTABILITY REMAINS GREATEST. ANY THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE A PRIMARY OPERATIONAL CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM 20 TO 25 KT, WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS NEAR 30 KT AROUND 20Z TO
21Z BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING, WITH WINDS VEERING
FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WHILE
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE, MODEST
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LIMITED MIXING SHOULD PREVENT STRONGER GUSTS
FROM REACHING THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT.
SOME POST FRONTAL STRATOCU MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING WHETHER CEILINGS BRIEFLY DROP INTO MVFR.
ON SUNDAY, NORTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING,
INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT BY THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES EARLY NEXT WEEK, FAVORING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARRIVES MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ033-048>053-
058-059-062-063.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JK
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