768
FXUS62 KGSP 111828
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
128 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THAT FRONT FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 118 PM EST SUNDAY:
KEY MESSAGE #1: GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY LEAD TO
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL, ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR LOCATIONS THAT LACKED RAINFALL
FROM SATURDAY.
THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT FROM LAST
NIGHT HAS BROUGHT IN REINFORCED CAA WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS. GUSTS
UP TO 45-55+ MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS, LEADING
TO CONFIRMED ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTS
GUSTY WINDS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS TOO VIA FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
THAT HAS ALSO BEEN CONFIRMED WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS REACHING GUSTS
OF 35-45 MPH, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEEDING 45 MPH AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT CAN BEST BE DEPICTED BY THE DEW POINT
GRADIENT AS IT SHOULD SLIP EAST OF THE CWFA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
BUT EVEN THAT IS GETTING HARD TO DEPICT AS PEAK HEATING MIXING HAS
ALLOWED DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TO TANK AS WELL. GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WEAKENS
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE
FRONT SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
ON TOP OF THE GUSTY WINDS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE IN
STORE FOR THE SOUTHEAST FRINGE OF THE CWFA. LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL
FELL IN THIS AREA SATURDAY, WHILE A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
SETTLES IN TODAY. RH VALUES WILL NEAR 25% WITH GUSTS OF 30-40+
MPH, LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITHIN THE POST
FRONTAL MIXING REGIME. RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE REACHED BRIEFLY
IN THESE LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE RALEIGH NWS OFFICE AND THE NCFS, WE
HAVE ISSUED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR UNION COUNTY, NC FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO IN COORDINATION WITH THE COLUMBIA NWS OFFICE,
WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THE LOWER PIEDMONT OF
SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE #2: ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS CREATING DIFFICULT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TENNESSEE BORDER.
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AS SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY HAS BECOME FULLY REALIZED THANKS TO UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE VORT MAX WITHIN THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AS IT CURRENTLY MOVES ACROSS THE CWFA. SOME
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BROKE CONTAINMENT FROM THE IMMEDIATE
TENNESSEE BORDER, PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT BEHIND THE FRONT
DISRUPTS ANY LEFTOVER NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW BY THIS EVENING. SOME
OF THE EMBEDDED SNOW BANDS HAVE PRODUCED SNOW SQUALL-ISH TYPE
CONDITIONS WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.
LIGHTER WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN STORE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS ANY CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE IMMEDIATE TENNESSEE BORDER WITH ONGOING NORTHWEST WINDS. WITH
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
RUN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SURFACE HIGH WILL FULLY SET UP
SHOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AS A SURFACE LEE TROUGH
HELPS VEER WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS ON MONDAY TO
BE NEAR-NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1225 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE #1: DRY AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORKWEEK.
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE, WITH DEWPTS LIKELY MIXING OUT LOWER THAN THE NBM
ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTN. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF
THE W/SW, BUT THERE COULD BE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN
OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES, WHICH DIDN'T GET MUCH RAIN RECENTLY,
AS RH VALUES APPROACH 25%. TEMPS WILL WARM TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL UNDER SUNNY SKIES. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW WEDNESDAY, MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ATOP THE CWFA,
WHILE SW WINDS PICK UP AND BECOME BREEZY IN THE AFTN. POPS RAMP UP
INTO THE CHANCE RANGE ALONG THE TN BORDER BY THE END OF THE DAY,
BUT SHOULD START OUT AS MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS, WITH TEMPS STILL A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE #1: A NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW EVENT MAY BRING SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, MAINLY NEAR THE TN BORDER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
DYNAMIC/STRONGLY-FORCED TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS
AND EVEN CLOSING OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY. THIS FORCING WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH, AND MAY BE ENHANCED BY A ZONE OF FRONTOGENESIS
THAT PUSHES INTO THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST. DRY WESTERLY TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIMIT POPS. BUT
850 MB TEMPS FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE RAMPS
UP. SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON AT LEAST ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW
ACCUMS ALONG THE TN BORDER IN THE USUAL NW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS. MOST
OF THE SNOW LOOKS TO FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY MORNING. A
SFC LOW WILL LIKELY FORM IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW, SOMEWHERE
INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OR MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY. THIS MAY
ALLOW SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE TO SPILL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY. BUT PER USUAL, TEMPS WILL START OUT A LITTLE TOO WARM
FOR SNOW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, AND IT WILL BE RACE BETWEEN THE
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR. BUT IF MOISTURE CAN LINGER LONG ENOUGH DURING
THE DAY, WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW FLAKES OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS IN
SPOTS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW, AND EVEN IF SOMEHOW THE COLD AIR
AND MOISTURE OVERLAP, SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE #2: ARCTIC AIR RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
USHERING IN GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BEHIND
AN ARCTIC FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY, BUT EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA,
EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. BUT WIND CHILLS MAY DIP INTO THE
-5 TO -10 DEG F RANGE ABOVE 3500 FT IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT THRU DAYBREAK FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE PIEDMONT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES REINFORCE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. THERE REMAINS A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE
GUIDANCE ON A POTENTIAL SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT COULD
BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE SYSTEM MAY
BE SIMILAR TO THE MIDWEEK STORM, WITH MAINLY A NW FLOW SNOW EVENT
AND SOME SHOWERS BREAKING CONTAINMENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS. BUT THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z CANADIAN HAVE COME IN
DRIER WITH THE SYSTEM. THE LATEST NBM HAS SLIGHT CHC TO LOW-END
CHC RAMPING UP MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY. OTHERWISE,
IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN TOPIC OF DISCUSSION WILL BE THE WINDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE REALLY
PICKED UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT TO GO ALONG WITH DEEP MIXING. EXPECT
GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT 25-35 KTS, WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
NOT BEING RULED OUT. GUSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY 00Z MONDAY
AND COMPLETELY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FEW/SCT 050-060 STRATOCU
HAS BROKE CONTAINMENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HAS PASSED OVER THE
TAF SITES. THAT SHOULD ALSO TAPER OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE
OF KAVL, WHERE SCT/BKN 030-045 CIGS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
IN STORE FOR ALL TAF SITES ON MONDAY AS WINDS START OUT THE DAY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS
BY THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: EXPECT DRY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY AND MAY BRING SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS. SOME WINTRY PRECIP COULD AFFECT KAVL EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-048>053-
058-059-062-063.
INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ082.
SC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ009-
011>014-019.
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...CAC
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...CAC
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