137
FXUS62 KGSP 261150
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
650 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE ICE STORM WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY
FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS THROUGH 1 PM.
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. THE ICE STORM WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A WINTER WX
ADVISORY IN LIGHT OF CONTINUED TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES THIS MORNING,
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY WELL BE CANCELLED BEFORE ITS 1 PM EXPIRATION.
2. VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE COMBINING WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE VERY LOW WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING, WHERE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
10 AM. STILL LOWER WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING. THE EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING,
WHILE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
3. EXTENDED COLD WAVE IS EXPECTED, AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS MAY RETURN TO HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHTS.
4. SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SNOW NEXT WEEKEND WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TO OUR EAST OR SOUTHEAST. IF SNOW WERE TO
FALL, IT COULD EASILY REINTRODUCE OR WORSEN TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE
TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO ONSET.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THE ICE STORM WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A WINTER
WX ADVISORY IN LIGHT OF CONTINUED TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES THIS MORNING,
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY WELL BE CANCELLED BEFORE ITS 1 PM EXPIRATION.
OTHERWISE, REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES FLURRIES AND SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE TN/NC BORDER IN RESPONSE TO
STRENGTHENING NW/UPSLOPE FLOW INTERACTING WITH MOISTURE BANKED
AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
SHALLOW AND NW FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT VEERED UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING
(WHEN THE MOIST LAYER WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW), SO ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOWERS ARE UNLIKELY OUTSIDE OF SOME DUSTINGS HERE AND THERE.
OTHERWISE, NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL IS STEADILY BECOMING ESTABLISHED
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, AND IS DOING ITS WORK TO ERADICATE THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE FOOTHILLS. CLEARING WILL STEADILY
OVERSPREAD THE PIEDMONT, WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS ALL BUT
THE TN/NC BORDER AREAS BY LATE MORNING. COLD ADVECTION AND SLEET
PACK ARE EXPECTED TO YIELD MAX TEMPS OF 10-15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
KEY MESSAGE 2: VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE COMBINING WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE VERY LOW WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING, WHERE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10
AM. STILL LOWER WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
THE EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING, WHILE A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HIGH ELEVATIONS AND IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY LATE
MORNING. THIS FALLS A LITTLE SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT IT
WILL BE NOTABLY WINDY. WITH TEMPERATURES HAVING FALLEN IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS, WIND CHILLS FROM
AROUND 0 THOUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE LOWER TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
AFTER SUNSET TODAY, CULMINATING IN WIDESPREAD MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER
SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TUE MORNING. WIND
CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO -15 OR LOWER ACROSS AVERY COUNTY,
ABOVE 3500 FEET ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER
COUNTIES, AND IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTY. THE
EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING IN THESE AREAS FOR
TONIGHT. MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO MEET OR
EXCEED COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. EVEN IN AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS, THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS WHERE THE FORECAST FALLS A
LITTLE SHY OF CRITERIA, POWER OUTAGES RESULTING FROM YESTERDAY'S ICE
SUGGEST IT'S PRUDENT TO ISSUE AN IMPACT-MINDED ADVISORY FOR ALL
AREAS OUTSIDE THE WARNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3: EXTENDED COLD WAVE IS EXPECTED, AS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS MAY RETURN TO HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHTS.
WE WILL BE STUCK IN THIS PATTERN THRU THE WEEK, WITH A POLAR
VORTEX OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS. A SERIES OF
VORT LOBES WILL SWING THRU THE VORTEX AND KEEP REINFORCING VERY
COLD AIR SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS UP A BIT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, LIKELY PRODUCING WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FT, FLIRTING WITH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/STRONG VORT LOBE WILL PIVOT AROUND
THE POLAR VORTEX AND DROP SOUTH THRU THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS
THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CWFA AND POSSIBLY KEEPING WINDS ELEVATED FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET EVEN OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS
IN SPOTS, AS LOW TEMPS DIP INTO THE TEENS. EVEN IF WE DON'T MEET
OBJECTIVE WIND CHILL CRITERIA, THE EXTREMELY COLD TEMPS MAY HAVE
AN IMPACT ON INFRASTRUCTURE AND THOSE VULNERABLE TO THE COLD. ALL
THREE OF OUR CLIMATE SITES: AVL, GSP, CLT LOOK TO BE WELL WITHIN
COLD WAVE CRITERIA HEADING INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND, SO A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT MAY BE ISSUED TO ADDRESS THE CONCERNS. HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MAINLY IN THE 20S TO UPPER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS,
AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S. OVERALL, THE PATTERN WILL BE DRY THRU AT LEAST
FRIDAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS NEAR
THE TN BORDER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 4: SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SNOW NEXT WEEKEND WITH DEVELOPMENT
OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TO OUR EAST OR SOUTHEAST. IF SNOW WERE TO
FALL, IT COULD EASILY REINTRODUCE OR WORSEN TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO
THE COLD TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO ONSET.
THE LATEST MODELS ARE COMING INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON
A SHARP VORT LOBE CARVING A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WAVE MAY PROVIDE ENERGY TO INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. THE LOW
LOOKS TO LIKELY FORM OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST, RESULTING IN
LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME
BRIEF NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH,
BUT CONFIDENCE OF ANY PRECIP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS REMAINS LOW. A
HANDFUL OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM EACH OF THE GEFS/EC/GEPS AND THE
AI ENSEMBLES ALL HAVE SOME QPF OVER OUR PIEDMONT WITH A POSSIBLE
PRECIP SHIELD EXTENDING NW OF THE COASTAL LOW. THE AIR MASS IN PLACE
WOULD BE SO COLD, THAT THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE ALL
SNOW FOR OUR AREA. THE LATEST NBM POPS ARE STILL ONLY IN THE 10-20%
RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. BUT THIS SITUATION BEARS WATCHING,
AS SUCH COLD TEMPS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD MAKE EVEN LIGHT SNOW
STICK TO ROADS MORE THAN USUAL, AND LEAD TO SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: ***AMD NOT SKED WILL BE CARRIED AT KHKY
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO ASOS OUTAGE.*** CLEARING IS STEADILY
WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING,
BUT RESTRICTIONS OF SOME STRIPE CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
KAND. NEVERTHELESS, THE CLEARING IS RIGHT ON THE DOORSTEP OF KGMU
AND KGSP, AND THOSE SITES SHOULD BECOME VFR NO LATER THAN 14Z. KCLT
WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO CLEAR OUT, BUT VFR IS EXPECTED THERE BY
15Z. MEANWHILE, KAVL IS ON THE EDGE OF A MVFR DECK, AND THAT SITE
SHOULD SEE TEMPO MVFR CIGS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ALL SITES SHOULD SEE VFR/GENERALLY SKC CONDITIONS
FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD. VERY GUSTY NW WINDS WILL REMAIN AT KAVL
UNTIL AT LEAST THIS EVENING, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS
EXPECTED. LIGHT/VARIABLE OR LIGHT WSW WINDS AT THE OTHER SITES WILL
BECOME NW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS BY LATE MORNING, WITH SOME
GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NW WINDS
DECREASE AT ALL SITES FROM MID-EVENING ON, BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP OUT OF THE SW LATE TUE MORNING.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE
WEEK UNDER A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 01-27
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 80 1999 17 1940 54 1916 2 1986
KCLT 75 1890 24 1940 58 1890 6 1940
KGSP 73 1954 29 1940 57 1949 8 1940
RECORDS FOR 01-28
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 75 1914 7 1897 52 1916 -2 1986
1897
KCLT 79 1944 20 1897 59 1916 5 1986
KGSP 77 1944 29 1986 55 1957 5 1986
RECORDS FOR 01-29
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 2002 25 1977 52 1917 -1 1897
1897
KCLT 79 2002 29 2014 59 1957 8 1897
KGSP 78 2002 27 1897 57 1957 6 1897
1916
RECORDS FOR 01-30
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 2002 11 1966 55 1950 -7 1966
1914
KCLT 78 2002 19 1966 59 1914 4 1966
KGSP 76 1975 20 1966 53 2002 -6 1966
RECORDS FOR 01-31
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 78 1975 13 1909 57 1950 1 1966
KCLT 77 1975 27 1909 59 1950 4 1966
KGSP 79 1975 31 1934 60 1950 3 1966
1909
RECORDS FOR 02-01
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 74 1950 22 1898 55 1950 4 1909
KCLT 76 1950 27 1900 55 1896 10 1900
KGSP 73 1957 30 1980 56 1969 9 1900
1936 1950
1916
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
TUESDAY FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-
048>053-058-059-062>065.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
TUESDAY FOR NCZ035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-
082-501>510.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ033-035>037-049-050-053-056-057-062>065-068>072-082-
501>510.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
TUESDAY FOR NCZ033-048>052-059.
SC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
TUESDAY FOR SCZ008>014-019-101>109.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SCZ008>014-019-101>109.
ARK/JDL
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