116
FXUS62 KGSP 271419
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
919 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED FOR MOST OF THE AREA EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS, BUT KEPT ELSEWHERE THROUGH NOON TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS, BUT AN EXTREME COLD WARNING OR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH NOON TODAY. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS, INCREASING
THE RISK OF FROSTBITE. POWER OUTAGES FOLLOWING THE ICE STORM
COULD INCREASE INCIDENCE OF HYPOTHERMIA THROUGHOUT THE AREA,
FOR INDIVIDUALS WITHOUT ACCESS TO HEAT.
2. EXTENDED COLD WAVE IS EXPECTED, AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. VERY LOW WIND CHILLS
WILL OCCUR ACROSS A PART OF THE MOUNTAINS TUE AND WED NIGHTS.
3. SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FOR THIS WEEKEND
IN ASSOCIATION WITH LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. IF SNOW WERE TO FALL, IMPACTS TO TRAVEL CAN BE
EXPECTED DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO ONSET.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS, BUT AN EXTREME COLD WARNING OR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH NOON TODAY. WIND CHILLS
WILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS, INCREASING THE RISK
OF FROSTBITE. POWER OUTAGES FOLLOWING THE ICE STORM COULD INCREASE
INCIDENCE OF HYPOTHERMIA THROUGHOUT THE AREA, FOR INDIVIDUALS
WITHOUT ACCESS TO HEAT.
TEMPS WERE SLOWLY WARMING THIS MORNING OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS, SUCH
THAT WIND CHILL VALUES WERE WARMER THAN OUR ADVISORY CRITERIA. MAKE
NO MISTAKE, IT WILL STILL FEEL RATHER COLD WITH A LIGHT W/SW WIND,
BUT SOME OF THAT WILL BE OFFSET BY BRIGHT SUNSHINE. TEMPS SHOULD
RISE ABOVE 32F BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE CENTER OF AN ARCTIC SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST, WITH JUST ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE NORTHEAST
SIDE OF THE HIGH TO PRODUCE LINGERING WIND ATOP THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. THIS IS COMBINING WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AMBIENT TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING THANKS TO SUNNY
SKY. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO LET THE WARNING/ADVISORY GO ON SCHEDULE.
OTHERWISE, HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MOST
AREAS UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THAT SAID, HIGH ELEVATIONS COULD REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING ALL DAY. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTN, AND WINDS ACTUALLY PICK UP IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT,
AS A PASSING REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. DESPITE
THE WIND, TEMPS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS TODAY; THUS, WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING WIND CHILLS TO QUITE REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA,
EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THE DAY SHIFT CAN ASSESS WHETHER AN
IMPACT-BASED ADVISORY IS WARRANTED IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHEN
THE CURRENT COLD HEADLINES EXPIRE, AS WIND CHILLS MAY DIP INTO THE
-5 TO +5 DEGREE RANGE LATE TONIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S
IN THE PIEDMONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: EXTENDED COLD WAVE IS EXPECTED, AS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. VERY LOW WIND
CHILLS WILL OCCUR ACROSS A PART OF THE MOUNTAINS TUE AND WED NIGHTS.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE EAST FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE, REINFORCED BY PERIODIC SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
WITH MAX AND MIN TEMPS FORECAST TO BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO WED
THROUGH FRI. A SHORT WAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF GUSTY MOUNTAINS WINDS AND NW/UPSLOPE FLOW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WED NIGHT/EARLY THU. BOTH WIND AND
SNOWFALL (IF ANY) WILL MOST LIKELY BE SUB-ADVISORY. THE WINDY
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO COULD
RESULT IN COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH ELEVATIONS. EVEN IN LOCATIONS THAT FALL SHORT OF
CRITERIA, THE EXTREMELY COLD TEMPS MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON
INFRASTRUCTURE AND THOSE VULNERABLE TO THE COLD DUE TO ANY PRE-
EXISTING POWER OUTAGES.
ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR
CWA. TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN TREND COLDER BY A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT
(BACK TO SINGLE DIGITS), WHILE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL. HENCE,
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET EVEN OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS, AS LOW TEMPS DIP INTO THE TEENS. BASED ON TWO-DAY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, ALL THREE OF OUR CLIMATE SITES (AVL, GSP,
CLT) LOOK TO BE WELL WITHIN COLD WAVE CRITERIA HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND, SO A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT MAY BE ISSUED TO ADDRESS
CONCERNS ABOUT LONGER-DURATION COLD LEADING TO GREATER IMPACTS
SUCH AS GREATER INCIDENCE OF FROZEN PIPES.
KEY MESSAGE 3: SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FOR THIS
WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. IF SNOW WERE TO FALL, IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO ONSET.
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE TOWARD A CONSENSUS
REGARDING THE PATTERN OVER THE EAST LATE IN THE WEEK, AS A STRONG
AND INTENSIFYING SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO DIG FROM THE GREAT
PLAINS ON FRIDAY TO THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY, SHARPENING THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND CARVING OUT A DEEP UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE AIR MASS WILL ALREADY BE ANOMALOUSLY
COLD BEFORE THIS EVOLUTION, AND THIS PATTERN WILL BRING EVEN
COLDER CONDITIONS...WITH DAILY RECORD LOW MAX AND MIN TEMPS BEING
IN JEOPARDY FOR AT LEAST SATURDAY. JUST AS NOTABLY, THE STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY INITIATE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH THE ONLY QUESTION BEING THE
USUAL TIMING/INTENSITY/LOCATION QUESTIONS THAT ONE SHOULD EXPECT
5 DAYS OUT. THE 00Z GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A
CYCLONE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COAST, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
FRONTOGENETICALLY-INDUCED PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FRI
NIGHT/SATURDAY. WITH COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...AND CONSIDERING
HOW FAR SOUTH IT APPEARS THE UPPER SYSTEM IS GOING TO DIG...THIS
WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY BE A RARE ALL-SNOW EVENT FOR OUR AREA, AND
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST A PART
OF THE CWA. HAVING SAID THAT, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...CERTAINLY
THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE OFFERS LITTLE CLARITY...AND WE EXPECT
A COUPLE OF MORE DAYS OF THE MODEL "GAME ON/GAME OFF" BACK AND
FORTH THAT IS TYPICAL OF EXTENDED PERIOD COASTAL LOWS.
OTHERWISE, TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO STEADILY MODERATE AS HEIGHTS RISE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEVERTHELESS, FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THE 12Z TAFS. VERY DRY
CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD WITH SKC THRU THE DAY, THEN INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT. BASICALLY A WIND FORECAST, WITH NW WINDS STILL
GUSTY AT KAVL, LIGHT WIND AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE SW AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KAVL TODAY, AND SHOULD SEE FREQUENT
LOW-END GUSTS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AGAIN THIS EVENING. THEN A DRY FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO
NW AGAIN AT KCLT AND GUSTS TO RESUME AT KAVL TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU MOST OF
THE WEEK UNDER A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS. GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO
TREND TOWARD A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW,
BUT TRENDS BEAR WATCHING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ048>053-058-
059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ033-048>052-
059.
SC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR SCZ101>103.
ARK/JDL/PM
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