821
FXUS62 KGSP 271754
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1254 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT THE FORECAST
REMAINS FAR FROM CERTAIN.
KEY MESSAGES
1. THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT HAVE TRENDED UP A BIT
MORE, SO A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, PATCHY BLACK ICE WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL RESULT
IN SLIPPERY SPOTS THAT COULD CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.
2. EXTENDED COLD WAVE CONTINUES, AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
3. SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FOR THIS WEEKEND
IN ASSOCIATION WITH LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. IF SNOW WERE TO FALL, IMPACTS TO TRAVEL CAN BE
EXPECTED DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO ONSET.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT HAVE TRENDED
UP A BIT MORE, SO A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, PATCHY BLACK ICE WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
RESULT IN SLIPPERY SPOTS THAT COULD CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.
THE RELATIVELY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS WE
WILL REMAIN UNDER A BROAD MID/UPPER TROF. A SHORT WAVE DROPPING
DOWN THROUGH THE BOTTOM OF THE TROF, ON PATH THAT WILL TAKE IT
SOUTH OF OUR FCST AREA, WILL STILL DRIVE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
DOWN ACROSS THE MTNS TONIGHT AND EAST OF THE FCST AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. NOTHING TOO CONTROVERSIAL HERE, BUT THE FRONT WILL BRING
SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE TO THE NRN MOUNTAINS ALONG THE TN BORDER, WITH
CLOUD TOP TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS. A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW
WAS ADDED THERE, BUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. MEANWHILE,
THE MODIFICATION OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS, AND SOME INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, WILL HELP TO KEEP THE LOW TEMPS TONIGHT ON THE ORDER OF
TEN DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS PAST MORNING. THUS, WE MAY BE MERELY
TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY, BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH ABOVE OUR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUCH THAT AN ADVISORY SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED.
WE WILL BE CONSIDERING THE ISSUANCE OF ANOTHER SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR PATCHY BLACK ICE ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION FOR
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE SLIPPERY SPOTS
IN SHADY PLACES AND ROADS THAT STILL HAVE MELTING SNOW OR SLEET
PILES ON THE SHOULDERS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: EXTENDED COLD WAVE CONTINUES, AS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER
WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS HEADING INTO TOMORROW NIGHT AND THURSDAY. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TOMORROW EVENING WITH CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOW WIND CHILL VALUES
OVERNIGHT, BUT JUST SHY OF COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA OUTSIDE OF
THE HIGHEST PEAKS AND RIDGES. AN ISOLATED NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWER
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED, BUT WILL BE THE EXCEPTION AND NOT
THE RULE OWING TO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS AND SCANT MOISTURE. WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A PERIOD OF QAUSI-ZONAL FLOW SETS UP FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
KEY MESSAGE 3: SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FOR THIS
WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST. IF SNOW WERE TO FALL, IMPACTS TO TRAVEL CAN BE
EXPECTED DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO ONSET.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE FOR INCREASING SNOW POTENTIAL
THIS WEEKEND. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING SEVERAL KEY
SYNOPTIC FEATURES, BUT THEIR EVENTUAL TIMING AND EVOLUTION WILL
HEAVILY DICTATE WHAT TRANSPIRES ACROSS THE REGION. STARTING OFF ON
THE HEMISPHERIC SCALE, OUR PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A STRONG
TROPOPAUSE POLAR VORTEX (TPV) CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
HUDSON BAY AS NOTED BY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRESSURE ON THE 2 PVU
SURFACE. THIS FEATURE IS ROTATING AROUND A MUCH LARGER GYRE AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST TOWARDS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOMORROW INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS POTENT ARCTIC TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
EVOLVE FROM A STRONG POSITIVE TILT TO A NEUTRAL TILT BY SATURDAY AS
AN INTENSE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF. AT THE SAME TIME, A TALL WESTERN
RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE CASCADES WHILE A
SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY DROPS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SUBTROPICAL JET WILL ALSO EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC ACROSS THE GULF STATES. EVENTUALLY, A COASTAL LOW WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST.
COLD AIR WILL BE READILY AVAILABLE AND SUPPORTIVE OF A MAINLY SNOW
EVENT WITH ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS, HOWEVER, THE TIMING AND
EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE KEY AS TO THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY
SNOWFALL. TO REALIZE A HIGHER-END SNOWFALL, SNOW LOVERS WILL WANT TO
SEE THE ARCTIC TROUGH TREND FARTHER WEST AND DIG OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
AND PHASE WITH THE SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING OVER TEXAS. THIS
WOULD ALSO FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GULF LOW ALONG COASTAL
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND A CLASSIC MILLER A EVENT. ANOTHER SCENARIO
EXISTS WHERE THE TROUGHS DO NOT PHASE, THE ARCTIC TROUGH IS TOO FAR
EAST, AND THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS TOO FAR OFF THE EAST COAST AND
REMAINS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO LEAVE US MOISTURE STARVED. AND
THIRDLY, SHOULD THE UPPER LOW CLOSE OFF OVER OUR AREA IT COULD
SUPPORT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW REGARDLESS OF HOW THE COASTAL LOW
EVOLVES. EXPECTED TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT EVEN AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW COULD PROVE HAZARDOUS ON ROADS. THUS, WHILE THE
TREND IS TOWARDS AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL, THE
FORECAST IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AND COULD TREND EITHER WAY THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE READER IS STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST
EACH DAY FOR UPDATES.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH WIND BEING THE ONLY CONCERN. STARTING TO SEE SOME DEEPER
MIXING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, SO OCCASIONAL LOW
END GUSTS FROM THE SW ARE STILL EXPECTED AT MOST PLACES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AROUND SUNSET. CLEAR
SKY. TONIGHT, A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS
THE REGION, BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO WNW OR NW LATE THIS EVENING OR
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN
CLOUDINESS ALONG THE TN BORDER, BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
KAVL. AFTER THE FRONT GOES THROUGH, WIND WILL GO LIGHT/VARIABLE
FOR SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING, AND THEN WILL COME UP
FROM THE WSW.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU MOST OF
THE WEEK UNDER A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS. GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO
TREND TOWARD A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW,
BUT TRENDS BEAR WATCHING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
PM/TW
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