270
FXUS62 KGSP 290001
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
701 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ANOMALOUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TONIGHT. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MITCHELL, YANCEY, AND
AVERY COUNTIES THROUGH 10 AM THURSDAY. PATCHY BLACK ICE WILL
DEVELOP IN SOME SPOTS AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
2. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
REGION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SNOW EXPECTED
TO BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE. DUE TO COLD TEMPERATURES
LEADING UP TO THE EVENT, IMPACTS TO TRAVEL COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.
3. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
IMPACTS TO LIFE AND INFRASTRUCTURE.
4. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ANOMALOUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TONIGHT.
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MITCHELL, YANCEY,
AND AVERY COUNTIES THROUGH 10 AM THURSDAY. PATCHY BLACK ICE WILL
DEVELOP IN SOME SPOTS AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE MTNS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/UPSTATE THIS EVENING. ELEVATED
WINDS FROM WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTION LAYER WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO
TONIGHT, SO AS TEMPERATURES DROP, SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL DEVELOP
AT SOME HIGHER PEAKS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE.
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AVERY COUNTY AND
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET IN YANCEY AND MITCHELL COUNTIES THROUGH
10 AM THURSDAY.
MORE PATCHES OF BLACK ICE CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING, THOUGH THE
EXTENT WILL NOT BE AS GREAT AS THE PAST TWO NIGHTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE REGION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
SNOW EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE. DUE TO COLD
TEMPERATURES LEADING UP TO THE EVENT, IMPACTS TO TRAVEL COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT.
THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOW IS HIGH,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNTS (SPATIALLY) REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE. THERE
ARE ARE STILL SEVERAL SCENARIOS ON THE TABLE, BUT AT A MINIMUM A
SOLID WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EVENT APPEARS LIKELY WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL.
BY TOMORROW NIGHT, A TALL WEST COAST RIDGE WILL BE ESTABLISHED FROM
THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE CASCADES WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET
EXTENDING BENEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE GULF. AN
AREA OF CONFLUENT FLOW WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS TEXAS. FARTHER NORTH,
THE MAINLY PLAYER WILL BE A POTENT TROPOSPHERIC POLAR VORTEX (TPV)
THAT WILL BE ROTATING AROUND A LARGER GYRE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE TPV IS PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND DIG
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER
LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AS THE TROUGH TAKES ON A NEUTRAL TILT IN THE
VICINITY OF CENTRAL TENNESSEE. BY SATURDAY, GUIDANCE DIGS THE POTENT
UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPSTATE AS IT EVOLVES INTO A
NEGATIVE TILT AND INSTIGATES SUBSEQUENT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A
COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP WITH
H5 HEIGHTS IN THE BOTTOM 1ST PERCENTILE TO NEAR ALL TIME RECORD LOW
FOR THE SOUTHEAST. A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THEN SHIFTS
OFFSHORE AND MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE COAST.
THIS WILL BE AN UNUSUALLY COLD SNOW EVENT FOR THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AS THE
SNOW OCCURS. SOME MEMBERS OF GUIDANCE DEPICT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW 20S TO TEENS DURING PEAK SNOWFALL RATES ON SATURDAY AND EVEN THE
WARMER SOLUTIONS KEEP TEMPERATURES AT 30 DEGREES OR LOWER.
FURTHERMORE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREDIBLY COLD PROFILES
WITH A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND PLENTY OF FORCING IN PART FROM
STRONG DPVA WITH THE UPPER LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN RARE SLRS
RANGING FROM 15:1 TO 20:1. SURPRISINGLY, GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SLRS WITH ONLY SMALL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 10TH AND
90TH PERCENTILES. THUS, IT WON'T TAKE MUCH LIQUID QPF TO REALIZE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
INCREASE IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WITH SNOW STICKING VERY EFFICIENTLY TO
ROADS.
SO, THE BIGGEST QUESTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW DOES THE SYSTEM
EVOLVE AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE DO WE HAVE TO WORK WITH. THERE ARE
SEVERAL SCENARIOS ON THE TABLE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DICTATED BY
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TPV AND HOW IT INTERACTS WITH SEVERAL
OTHER PIECES OF ENERGY EMANATING OUT OF THE WEST COAST.
-A STRONGER AND SLOWER TPV THAT IS ABLE TO TAKE ON A NEUTRAL TO
NEGATIVE TILT BEFORE CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS WOULD FAVOR SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH AN OVERALL SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THE COASTAL LOW. THIS SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR MORE QPF TO WORK WITH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
-AN INTERMEDIATE SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR A WETTER UPPER LOW THAT IS
ABLE TO WORK WITH MORE MOISTURE FROM A LEAD WAVE ALONG THE GULF
COAST. IF THE INSTIGATION OF THE COASTAL LOW AND TRACK AREN'T
FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT FARTHER WEST, THE UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SQUEEZE OUT WARNING
CRITERIA SNOW.
-AND FINALLY, THE THIRD SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR A FASTER AND WEAKER
TPV THAT TAKES LONGER TO TRANSITION TO NEUTRAL/NEGATIVE TILT. THIS
WOULD BE A MORE MOISTURE STARVED SCENARIO WITH MUCH MORE MEAGER QPF
TO WORK WITH.
THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, NAMELY
THE GFS/GEFS/AIGFS, THE ECMWF/EPS/AIECMWF, AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
CMC SUPPORT SOLUTIONS WITH SUFFICIENT QPF FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE UKMET/ICON/NAM/RRFS, ON THE OTHER HAND,
ARE NOTABLY DRIER AND WOULD MAINLY SUPPORT AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT.
THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINS HIGH - IT'S
JUST A MATTER OF HOW MUCH AND WHERE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST EAST OF I-
26 AND ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-77 AT THIS TIME. ALSO TO KEEP
IN MIND, WITH THE HIGH SLRS IT WON'T TAKE MUCH QPF (~0.15-0.2") TO
SQUEEZE OUT WARNING CRITERIA SNOW (3" OR GREATER). ANOTHER UNUSUAL
ASPECT TO THIS EVENT TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW FROM GUSTY WINDS. LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING
COASTAL LOW WILL SUPPORT 25-30MPH WIND GUSTS ON SATURDAY. HIGH SLRS
WILL FAVOR DRY POWDERY SNOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RARELY SEEN
BLOWING SNOW. CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO HOISTING A WINTER STORM
WATCH WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, BUT GIVEN SOME LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING QPF AND PLACEMENT HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF FOR
NOW AND REASSESS THE OVERNIGHT MODEL GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGE 3: DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING IMPACTS TO LIFE AND INFRASTRUCTURE.
IN ADDITION TO THE SNOWFALL, ANOTHER SHOT OF BRUTALLY COLD ARCTIC
AIR IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL RAMP UP ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
WAVE WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO LOW
TEENS EAST. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH 20-40MPH WIND GUSTS
(LOCALLY HIGHER ABOVE 3500FT IN THE MOUNTAINS) WILL YIELD INCREDIBLY
COLD WIND CHILL VALUES. MOUNTAIN WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM -10 TO -25 WITH -5 TO 0 ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85 AND LOW SINGLE
DIGITS SOUTH OF I-85. THESE VALUES WOULD BE NEAR OR BELOW CRITERIA
FOR EXTREME COLD AND AN EXTREME COLD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
WITH LATER FORECAST PACKAGES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE
TO WARM EVEN WITH FULL SUNSHINE. A LOT OF INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION
WILL GO INTO MELTING SNOW AND TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE LOWER UPSTATE AND
UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY. SOME GUIDANCE IS EVEN COLDER WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 20S. WINDS WILL RELAX BY SUNDAY NIGHT,
BUT TEMPERATURES MAY PLUMMET, ESPECIALLY IF THERE'S SUFFICIENT
SNOWPACK STILL ON THE GROUND. THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE
WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT LOWS AGAIN WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE DEEPEST SNOW IS. THESE LOWS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON SNOWPACK, HOWEVER, AND SHOULD A DRIER SCENARIO PLAY OUT
THEY WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER, BUT STILL RATHER COLD.
THESE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES, ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PROVE DANGEROUS AND WILL IMPACT LIFE AND
INFRASTRUCTURE.
KEY MESSAGE 4: TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
FINALLY, BY MONDAY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO OUT OF THE WEST AND CUTS
OFF COLD ADVECTION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE AIRMASS TO GRADUALLY
MODIFY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S, BUT STILL WELL BELOW AVERAGE. THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 40S
BY WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL BE COLD IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S WITH REFREEZING OF MELTING SNOW EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
FEW PATCHES OF MID-LEVEL WAVE CLOUDS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND WESTERN PIEDMONT, BUT ANY MID-LEVEL CEILING SHOULD SCATTER OUT
BY MID-EVENING. ADDITIONAL PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
COULD MOVE OVERHEAD AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING, THEN CLOUDS WILL
START TO INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING. STILL SEEING SOME GUSTY WINDS
AT ISSUANCE TIME IN SOME PLACES, BUT THEY SHOULD ABATE. DIRECTION
SHOULD MAINLY BE W TO NW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY
AND THEN WIND SHOULD GO LIGHT/VARIABLE IN MOST PLACES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST
FRIDAY UNDER A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY
AT KCLT. LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA SUNDAY, BUT GUSTY
N/NW WINDS WILL LINGER.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 01-31
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 78 1975 13 1909 57 1950 1 1966
KCLT 77 1975 27 1909 59 1950 4 1966
KGSP 79 1975 31 1934 60 1950 3 1966
1909
RECORDS FOR 02-01
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 74 1950 22 1898 55 1950 4 1909
KCLT 76 1950 27 1900 55 1896 10 1900
KGSP 73 1957 30 1980 56 1969 9 1900
1936 1950
1916
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ033-049-
050.
SC...NONE.
MPR/PM/TW
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