570
FXUS62 KGSP 290624
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
124 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
FROM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY, BUT WARNING-CRITERIA TOTALS
OF 2-4" ARE STILL FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA, WITH 4-7" ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF, AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ANOMALOUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MITCHELL, YANCEY,
AND AVERY COUNTIES THROUGH 10 AM.
2. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
REGION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SNOW EXPECTED
TO BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE. DUE TO COLD TEMPERATURES
LEADING UP TO THE EVENT, IMPACTS TO TRAVEL COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.
3. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS AIR MASS WILL
POSE POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY IF PRECAUTIONS ARE
NOT TAKEN.
4. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ANOMALOUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MITCHELL,
YANCEY, AND AVERY COUNTIES THROUGH 10 AM.
ELEVATED WINDS WITHIN STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THRU
EARLY THIS MORNING. AS TEMPERATURES DROP, SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL
DEVELOP AT SOME HIGHER PEAKS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLUE
RIDGE. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AVERY COUNTY
AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET IN YANCEY AND MITCHELL COUNTIES
THROUGH 10 AM THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE A CATEGORY OR SO
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY UNDER PERIODS OF THICKER HIGH AND MID CLOUDS.
PATCHES OF BLACK ICE CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING
AS TEMPERATURES START OUT BELOW FREEZING, THOUGH THE EXTENT
WILL NOT BE AS GREAT OF EXTENT AS THE PAST TWO NIGHTS. FURTHER
MELTING WILL OCCUR AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S. INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILLS OUT
OF THE SUB-ZERO RANGE TONIGHT. LOWS RANGING MAINLY BETWEEN 15 TO 25.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE REGION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
SNOW EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE. DUE TO COLD
TEMPERATURES LEADING UP TO THE EVENT, IMPACTS TO TRAVEL COULD
BE SIGNIFICANT.
A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WILL DIG FROM THE CORN BELT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
TO THE TN VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE PIVOTING ACROSS SOUTH
CAROLINA AS THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH BECOMES INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED. IN RESPONSE, LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS
OUR REGION THROUGHOUT FRIDAY INTO FRI NIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BLOSSOM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...POSSIBLY OVERSPREADING WESTERN NC AS EARLY AS FRI
AFTERNOON. DEPENDING UPON TIMING, SOME RAIN COULD INITIALLY FALL
IN THE VALLEYS, BUT A QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED AS
SURFACE TEMPS COOL DUE TO WET BULB EFFECT, AND COLD ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. THE PRECIP WILL STEADILY DEVELOP SOUTHEAST...EAST
OF THE UPPER LOW POSITION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY,
WITH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LIKELY SEEING AT LEAST SOME PRECIP
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WITH STRONG CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED TO BE
UNDERWAY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, COLD ADVECTION WILL STEADILY
STRENGTHEN ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA, FORCING VERTICAL PROFILES TO
BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF A VIRTUALLY ALL-SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA. AS TIME PROGRESSES AND COLD ADVECTION INTENSIFIES AND DEEPENS,
PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW:LIQUID RATIOS
OF 15-20:1 DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
WHAT REMAINS THE SUBJECT OF MUCH CONSTERNATION IS QPF. AFTER
MULTIPLE MODEL CYCLES IN WHICH THE OVERALL TREND IN DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE WAS TOWARD A SNOWIER SCENARIO FOR THE CWA, 00Z GUIDANCE
HAS GENERALLY COME IN WITH A BIT LIGHTER QPF. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO
PROVIDES PLENTY OF AMMO TO GIVE ONE PAUSE AS TO THE POTENTIAL LACK
OF QPF PROBLEM UNDERCUTTING SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE MAIN ISSUE AS WE SEE IT IS THAT
MUCH OF THE PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR THIS EVENT WOULD BE DEPENDENT UPON
HOW QUICKLY THE MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE MATURES AS THE UPPER LOW
PASSES NEAR/OVER THE CWA EARLY SATURDAY. IN GENERAL...DEFORMATION
ZONE PRECIP REGIONS CAN BE UNDERWHELMING (AND UNDER PERFORMING
OF GUIDANCE) IN TERMS OF PRECIP PRODUCTION. WE HAVE THEREFORE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE LOWER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
FOR QPF, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF. HAVING SAID THAT,
RATIOS ARE FORECAST TO BE SO HIGH WITHIN THE DEF ZONE, THAT OUR
DETERMINISTIC FORECAST HAS FALLEN OUT WITH SNOW TOTALS SUPPORTIVE OF
A WINTER STORM WATCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, ALBEIT ONLY MARGINALLY
SO (2-4") ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER IN A 4-7" RANGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF...AS WELL AS ACROSS
THE TN BORDER COUNTIES, WHERE STRONG N/NW LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES. 50% CONFIDENCE THAT WARNING CRITERIA
WILL BE REACHED IS THE THRESHOLD FOR WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUANCE,
AND WHILE I CAN'T SAY I'M QUITE THERE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF,
WE HAVE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND HOIST ONE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES. IT SHOULD ALSO BE STATED
THAT EVEN IF SOME AREAS DON'T TECHNICALLY MEET OBJECTIVE CRITERIA,
ROADS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME A MESS DUE TO THE COLD NATURE OF THE
AIR MASS...AS INCREASINGLY POWDERY/DRY SNOW WILL QUICKLY STICK
TO SURFACES.
WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING ON THE WEST SIDE OF
DEVELOPING, STRONG COASTAL LOW, GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION ON SATURDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH LIKELY...RESULTING
IN SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW, AND POSSIBLY BRIEF, LOCALIZED
BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS. THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY
EVENING, LEAVING BEHIND THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE YEAR...NAY
ONE OF THE COLDEST AIR MASSES WE'VE SEEN IN A WHILE.
KEY MESSAGE 3: DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS AIR
MASS WILL POSE POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY IF PRECAUTIONS
ARE NOT TAKEN.
LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO LOW TEENS EAST. THESE COLD
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH 20-40MPH WIND GUSTS (LOCALLY HIGHER
ABOVE 3500FT IN THE MOUNTAINS) WILL YIELD INCREDIBLY COLD WIND
CHILL VALUES. MOUNTAIN WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM -10
TO -20 IN THE VALLEYS, WITH VALUES OF -15 TO -25 EXPECTED IN THE
HIGH ELEVATIONS...PROBABLY EVEN LOWER THAN THAT ON THE HIGHEST
PEAKS. EVEN OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS, WIND CHILL OF 0 TO 5 BELOW IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85, WITH LOW SINGLE DIGITS
SOUTH OF THERE. THESE VALUES WOULD BE NEAR OR EXCEED CRITERIA FOR
EXTREME COLD AND AN EXTREME COLD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH
LATER FORECAST PACKAGES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM EVEN WITH FULL SUNSHINE. A LOT OF INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION
WILL GO INTO MELTING SNOW AND TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE LOWER UPSTATE AND
UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY. SOME GUIDANCE IS EVEN COLDER WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 20S. WINDS WILL RELAX BY SUNDAY NIGHT,
BUT AIR TEMPERATURES MAY BE AS COLD, IF NOT COLDER THAN SATURDAY
NIGHT. MUCH OF THE AREA MAY END UP BEING CONTINUOUSLY BELOW FREEZING
FROM FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY LONGER THAN
THAT ACROSS SOME HIGH ELEVATIONS AREAS. THE EXTREME COLD AND VERY
WIND CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT, COMBINED WITH THE PROLONGED NATURE
OF THE COLD WEATHER WILL POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY IF
NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS AREN'T TAKEN.
KEY MESSAGE 4: TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
FINALLY, BY MONDAY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO OUT OF THE WEST AND CUTS
OFF COLD ADVECTION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE AIRMASS TO GRADUALLY
MODIFY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S, BUT STILL WELL BELOW AVERAGE. THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 40S
BY WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL BE COLD IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S WITH REFREEZING OF MELTING SNOW EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
MID-LEVEL WAVE CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT, HOLDING ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED. PERIODS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THRU THE DAY. GUSTY NNW WIND LINGERS AT
KAVL INTO THE OVERNIGHT, BUT SHOULD ABATE BY DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE,
LIGHT WIND THRU THE PERIOD, MAINLY FAVORING A W TO NW DIRECTION,
TOGGLING TO SW ACROSS THE UPSTATE THIS AFTN.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST
FRIDAY UNDER A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY
AT KCLT. LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA SUNDAY, BUT GUSTY
N/NW WINDS WILL LINGER.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 01-31
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 78 1975 13 1909 57 1950 1 1966
KCLT 77 1975 27 1909 59 1950 4 1966
KGSP 79 1975 31 1934 60 1950 3 1966
1909
RECORDS FOR 02-01
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 74 1950 22 1898 55 1950 4 1909
KCLT 76 1950 27 1900 55 1896 10 1900
KGSP 73 1957 30 1980 56 1969 9 1900
1936 1950
1916
RECORDS FOR 02-02
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 1989 16 1908 52 1988 -2 1917
KCLT 80 1989 29 1908 61 1923 10 1917
KGSP 77 1989 28 1951 60 1923 9 1900
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-
049-050.
SC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR SCZ008>014-019-101>109.
AR/JDL
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