761
FXUS62 KGSP 291853
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
153 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING
ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE INCREASED WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS STILL
EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF I-77, BUT CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY SNOW IS
INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE AND MOUNTAINS.
AN EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR VERY
COLD AIR ARRIVING DURING AND AFTER THE WINTER STORM. FOR THE
MOUNTAINS, THE EXTREME COLD WATCH RUNS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THE WATCH IS
FROM SATURDAY EVENING TO SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MOSTLY CLOUDY, DRY, AND BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TONIGHT.
2. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE. DUE TO COLD TEMPERATURES LEADING UP
TO THE EVENT, IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WILL BE SIGNIFICANT.
3. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS AIR MASS WILL POSE
POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
4. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MAY RETURN BY MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MOSTLY CLOUDY, DRY, AND BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TONIGHT.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT KEEPING
QUIET WEATHER AROUND. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF SOME BRIEF CLEARING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BUT WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING ABOVE 3,500 FT,
ENDING UP ~10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, ENDING UP ~5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LIGHTER WINDS WILL KEEP WIND CHILL CONCERNS AT BAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL IMPACT THE
REGION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SNOW EXPECTED
TO BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE. DUE TO COLD TEMPERATURES
LEADING UP TO THE EVENT, IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WILL BE SIGNIFICANT.
WHILE SOME VARIATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE PERSIST, THE OVERALL
FORECAST TREND IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA. A POTENT TROPOSPHERIC POLAR VORTEX (TPV) IS
CURRENTLY ANALYZED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN A BROADER
GYRE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. FARTHER SOUTH, A SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE GULF COAST WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AND TO THE WEST, A TALL
WESTERN RIDGE RESIDES FROM THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE CASCADES AND
INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. HEADING THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW, THE TPV WILL DROP ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND DIG INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE TROUGH WILL INITIALLY HAVE A VERY POSITIVE
TILT TO IT, BUT WILL QUICKLY TAKE ON A NEUTRAL TILT OVER MIDDLE
TENNESSEE BEFORE BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE LATEST TREND
IN GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOR A SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE TPV, WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR THE LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TO GET OUT AHEAD OF THE
BOWLING BALL UPPER LOW AND INITIATE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A
COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST.
FURTHERMORE, GUIDANCE HAS LATCHED ONTO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MESOLOW
IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH THE MESOLOW MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN. THIS WOULD PLACE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN A VERY FAVORABLE LOCATION NORTH OF THE MESOLOW AND NORTH OF THE
BOWLING BALL CLOSED UPPER LOW. HERE, STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
BE PRESENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW, SOME
COMPONENT OF WHICH WILL HAVE A MOISTURE CONNECTION TO THE ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL ALSO FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOTABLE BAND OF 850MB
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA
PIEDMONT AND PORTIONS OF THE FOOTHILLS. THE RESULT OF WHICH HAS BEEN
A NOTABLE SOUTHWEST TREND IN QPF WITH AN UPTICK ALONG THE I-85
CORRIDOR. SNOW WILL START AS EARLY AS TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES AS THE TPV ENCROACHES ON THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. A STRONG UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE FLOW WILL ALSO
HELP FORCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL THEN
OVERSPREAD AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE EVENT WILL PEAK THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ALL SNOW COMING TO
AN END BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BE A VERY UNUSUAL AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS EVENT IN MANY WAYS
WITH NEAR RECORD LOW 500MB HEIGHTS, VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND RARE
SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS (SLRS) OF 15:1 - 20:1. THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE WILL BE VERY DEEP WITH PLENTIFUL FORCING FOR EFFICIENT SNOW
GROWTH. THUS, IT WON'T TAKE MUCH QPF TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA SNOW
ACROSS PRACTICALLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE WINTER STORM WATCH
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING
OWING TO EARLIER ONSET TIME TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW
WILL TAKE LONGER TO BREAK OUT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THE WINTER
STORM WATCH HERE WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING
WITH THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST PACKAGE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN WHERE
THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS OCCUR IS MODERATE AND SOME VARIABILITY
STILL EXISTS. RIGHT NOW, THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE STILL GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-77, BUT THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE PENDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MESOLOW. A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW COULD SETUP ALONG A
CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG TO CHARLOTTE.
SNOWFALL TOTALS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN
NOW WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW POTENTIALLY SHIFTING SOUTH TOWARDS I-85.
NEVERTHELESS, WARNING CRITERIA SNOW OF AT LEAST 3" IS STILL HIGHLY
LIKELY. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A SIGNAL FOR A "DRY SLOT" BETWEEN SNOW
BANDS IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA, ALTHOUGH WHERE
THIS OCCURS IS STILL UNCERTAIN - BUT EVEN THERE WARNING CRITERIA
SNOW SHOULD STILL BE REALIZED. THE CEILING IS HIGH WITH THIS EVENT
AND A SWATH OF 8-12"+ TOTALS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHERE THE GREATEST
BANDING IS ABLE TO SET UP SHOP.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD DURING THE SNOW WITH SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND ROADS EXPECTED. THANKFULLY, POWER OUTAGES
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AS THE DRY POWDERY SNOW FROM THE HIGH SLRS
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME ACCUMULATING ON POWER LINES. BLOWING SNOW HAS
ALSO BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST AS GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH THE
DRIER SNOW WILL SUPPORT REDUCED VISIBILITIES DURING STRONGER
GUSTS/HEAVIER RATES. IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ISOLATED
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR, BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW THE
CRITERIA FOR AT LEAST THREE CONSECUTIVE HOURS OF 35MPH OR GREATER
GUSTS AND VISIBLITY OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS.
KEY MESSAGE 3: DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS AIR MASS
WILL POSE POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY IF PRECAUTIONS ARE
NOT TAKEN.
INTENSE COLD ADVECTION WILL RAMP UP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
THE WINTER STORM IS UNDERWAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S, IF NOT COLDER. WINDS WILL ALSO RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW. WIND CHILLS WILL CRASH BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOCATIONS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SEEING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH A NUMBER OF SINGLE DIGITS
EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
VERY LOW TEENS WILL BE COMMON ELSEWHERE. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES
FROM -10 TO -25 OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND 0 TO -10 EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING
OUTSIDE OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF BRUTAL
LOWS GOING INTO MONDAY MORNING AS MUCH OF THE AREA DROPS BACK INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, AN EXTREME
COLD WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THE MOUNTAINS FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR THE REST OF THE AREA FROM
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AT LEAST ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED POTENTIALLY THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL RELAX BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ADVISORY. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE DANGEROUS TO LIFE AND PROPERTY, ESPECIALLY IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT
TAKEN.
KEY MESSAGE 4: TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MAY RETURN BY MID WEEK.
BY MONDAY, LOW-LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO OUT OF THE WEST
WHICH CUTS OFF COLD ADVECTION AND FINALLY ALLOWS FOR AT LEAST SOME
DEGREE OF A WARMING TREND. WHILE STILL WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES,
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S ON MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S BY
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL REMAIN COLD AND WELL BELOW
FREEZING, HOWEVER, WITH PERSISTENT MELT/FREEZE CYCLES EACH DAY. BY
MID WEEK, GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THERE'S CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS FEATURE EVOLVES AND
WHAT DEGREE OF COLD AIR REMAINS NEARBY. SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PAINT
ANOTHER WINTRY SCENARIO, WHILE OTHER CAMPS REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR A
RAIN EVENT. WILL GET THROUGH THIS WEEKEND'S WINTER STORM FIRST AND
THEN IRON OUT DETAILS FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: DRY AND VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD
THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA. BKN TO OVC CIRRUS
ARE EXPECTED TO STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT,
WITH CIRRUS BECOMING MORE SCT BRIEFLY THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WILL
REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD, GRADUALLY
TURNING MORE S/SE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
WINDS AT KAVL WILL REMAIN NW THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE GOING
CALM OVERNIGHT. WINDS AT KAVL WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SE FRIDAY.
WINDS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL TOGGLE MORE E/ENE FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK: CONFIDENCE CONTINUES INCREASING REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO LATE
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA SUNDAY ALLOWING DRY
AND VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN, BUT GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 01-31
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 78 1975 13 1909 57 1950 1 1966
KCLT 77 1975 27 1909 59 1950 4 1966
KGSP 79 1975 31 1934 60 1950 3 1966
1909
RECORDS FOR 02-01
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 74 1950 22 1898 55 1950 4 1909
KCLT 76 1950 27 1900 55 1896 10 1900
KGSP 73 1957 30 1980 56 1969 9 1900
1936 1950
1916
RECORDS FOR 02-02
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 1989 16 1908 52 1988 -2 1917
KCLT 80 1989 29 1908 61 1923 10 1917
KGSP 77 1989 28 1951 60 1923 9 1900
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-
508-510.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-
508-510.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-
507-509.
SC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR SCZ008>014-019-101>109.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR SCZ008>014-019-101>109.
AR/TW
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