609
FXUS62 KGSP 301142
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
642 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED TO ADD A NEW AVIATION WEATHER DISCUSSION. ALL OTHER PARTS
OF THE FORECAST ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MOSTLY CLOUDY, AND DRY THROUGH THE MORNING.
2. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL IMPACT THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH SNOW EXPECTED
TO BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE. DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES
LEADING UP TO THE EVENT, IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WILL BE SIGNIFICANT.
3. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL IMPACT
THE REGION SATURDAY THRU MONDAY MORNING. THIS AIR MASS WILL
POSE POTENTIAL THREATS TO LIFE AND PROPERTY IF PRECAUTIONS ARE
NOT TAKEN.
4. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MAY RETURN BY MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MOSTLY CLOUDY, AND DRY THROUGH THE MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING.
CLOUDS STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND I-40 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. MORE
DETAILS ON THAT IN THE LATER KEY MESSAGE. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL IMPACT THE
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH SNOW
EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE. DUE TO THE COLD
TEMPERATURES LEADING UP TO THE EVENT, IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL
IMPACT THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND.
A ROBUST TROPOSPHERIC POLAR VORTEX (TPV) IS CURRENTLY MOVING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN A BROADER GYRE CENTERED
OVER SE CANADA. FARTHER SOUTH, A SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE GULF COAST WITH A LEAD UPPER SHORT-
WAVE TROF DIVING THRU THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TO THE WEST, A STEEP
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN CONUS. THE TPV WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND DIG INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE TROF
WILL INITIALLY HAVE A VERY POSITIVE TILT TO IT, BUT WILL QUICKLY
TAKE ON A MORE NEUTRAL TILT OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE BEFORE BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
THRU THE DAY ON SAT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS
THAT THE LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL GET OUT AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LOW AND INITIATE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A COASTAL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST.
FURTHERMORE, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A WEAK MESOLOW IN THE
LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOVE IT SOUTHEAST THRU THE
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN.
THIS WOULD PLACE MUCH OF OUR FCST AREA IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION
NORTH OF THE MESOLOW AND NORTH OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW. HERE,
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE PRESENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH
CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW, SOME COMPONENT OF WHICH WILL HAVE A
MOISTURE CONNECTION TO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY FOSTER
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A ROBUST BAND OF 850MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE
UPSTATE AND INTO THE NC PIEDMONT AND PORTIONS OF THE FOOTHILLS.
THE RESULT OF WHICH HAS BEEN A SOUTHWEST TREND IN QPF WITH AN UP-
TICK ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR. SNOW COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MTNS AS UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES AS THE
TPV ENCROACHES ON THE TN VALLEY. A STRONG UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF
THE FLOW WILL ALSO HELP FORCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MTNS. SNOW
WILL THEN SPREAD EAST OF THE MTNS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK SATURDAY MORNING THRU THE
EARLY AFTERNOON, BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY EVENING WITH ALL SNOW COMING TO AN END BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY
MORNING.
THIS WILL LIKELY BE A VERY UNUSUAL AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS EVENT IN
NUMEROUS WAYS WITH NEAR RECORD LOW 500MB HEIGHTS, VERY COLD TEMP-
ERATURES AND RARE SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS (SLRS) OF 15:1 TO 20:1.
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL BE VERY DEEP WITH PLENTIFUL FORCING
FOR EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. THUS, IT SHOULDN'T TAKE MUCH QPF TO REACH
WARNING CRITERIA SNOW ACROSS MOST OF OUR FCST AREA. AS SUCH, THE
WINTER STORM WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR OUR
ENTIRE FCST AREA WITH THE LATEST FCST PACKAGE. CONFIDENCE REGARDING
WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL OCCUR REMAINS MODERATE AND
SOME VARIABILITY STILL EXISTS. CURRENTLY, THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE
STILL GENERALLY ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER REGION AND EAST OF I-77, BUT
THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE MESOLOW. SNOWFALL
TOTALS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 ARE MORE UNCERTAIN, BUT HAVE TRENDED
UP SINCE THE LAST FCST PACKAGE. NEVERTHELESS, WARNING CRITERIA SNOW
OF AT LEAST 3" IS STILL LIKELY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA. THE "SNOW
CEILING" REMAINS HIGH WITH THIS EVENT AND A SWATH OF 8 TO 12"+ TOTALS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHERE THE GREATEST BANDING IS ABLE TO SET UP.
IN ADDITION, TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD DURING THE SNOW WITH
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND ROADS EXPECTED. THANKFULLY, POWER
OUTAGES SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AS THE DRY POWDERY SNOW FROM THE HIGH
SLRS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME ACCUMULATING ON POWER LINES. BLOWING SNOW
HAS ALSO BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST AS GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH THE
DRIER SNOW WILL SUPPORT REDUCED VISIBILITIES DURING STRONGER GUSTS/
HEAVIER RATES. IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ISOLATED BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR, BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW THE CRITERIA FOR
AT LEAST THREE CONSECUTIVE HOURS OF 35 MPH OR GREATER GUSTS AND VISI-
BLITY OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS.
KEY MESSAGE 3: DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY THRU MONDAY MORNING. THIS AIR MASS
WILL POSE POTENTIAL THREATS TO LIFE AND PROPERTY IF PRECAUTIONS
ARE NOT TAKEN.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL RAMP UP TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY AS THE
WINTER STORM IS UNDERWAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL ALSO RAMP UP THRU
THE DAY ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW. WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL CRASH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WITH LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SEEING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
VERY COLD WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ALONG
WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NC FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT. VERY LOW TEENS WILL BE COMMON ELSEWHERE. THESE TEMP-
ERATURES COMBINED WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM -10 TO -25 OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND 5 TO -10
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO
REACH FREEZING OUTSIDE OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY WITH ANOTHER
NIGHT OF BRUTAL LOWS GOING INTO MONDAY MORNING AS MUCH OF THE AREA
DROPS BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. AS SUCH, AN EXTREME
COLD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS FROM SATURDAY AFTN
TO SUNDAY AFTN AND FOR THE REST OF THE AREA FROM SATURDAY EVENING
THRU SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED THRU THE DAY SUNDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN BY SUNDAY EVENING, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ADVISORY. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE DANGEROUS
TO LIFE AND PROPERTY, ESPECIALLY IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
KEY MESSAGE 4: TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MAY RETURN BY MID WEEK.
BY MONDAY, LOW-LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY WHICH
WEAKENS ANY COLD-AIR ADVECTION AND FINALLY ALLOWS FOR AT LEAST SOME
AMOUNT OF WARMING. WHILE STILL WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES, TEMPER-
ATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S ON MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL REMAIN COLD AND WELL BELOW FREEZING, WITH
PERSISTENT MELT/FREEZE CYCLES EACH DAY. BY MID WEEK, MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCER-
TAINTY WRT HOW THIS FEATURE EVOLVES AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE. SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PORTRAY ANOTHER WINTRY SCENARIO, WHILE
OTHERS REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR A RAIN EVENT. WE WILL GET THRU THIS
WEEKEND'S WINTER STORM FIRST AND THEN IRON OUT THE DETAILS FOR LATER
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: STILL EXPECTING ALL TERMINALS TO REMAIN DRY
AND VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z AND POSSIBLY 00Z SATURDAY. CIRRUS AND
MID CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING. VFR STRATOCU
INCREASES WITH LOW VFR CIGS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CIGS MOVE IN DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THE AREA, ALONG WITH LIGHT
SNOW AND MVFR VSBY CHANCES AT KAVL AND KHKY WHERE PROB30S ARE IN
PLACE. CAN'T RULE OUT AN EARLIER ONSET THOUGH. ELSEWHERE, PROB30S
FOR SNOW AND MVFR HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED AFTER 06Z. PROB30S WITH IFR
VSBY AND CIGS IN PLACE FOR THE 08Z TIME FRAME. STEADIER SNOW AND
RESTRICTIONS MAY DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING. LIGHT N TO NE WIND THIS
MORNING, PICKS UP SPEED THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTY NE WINDS
DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. KAVL SEES A LIGHT SE WIND
BY AFTERNOON TURNING N DURING THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK: CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE REGARDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE AREA INTO LATE SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA SUNDAY ALLOWING DRY AND VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN, BUT GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 01-31
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 78 1975 13 1909 57 1950 1 1966
KCLT 77 1975 27 1909 59 1950 4 1966
KGSP 79 1975 31 1934 60 1950 3 1966
1909
RECORDS FOR 02-01
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 74 1950 22 1898 55 1950 4 1909
KCLT 76 1950 27 1900 55 1896 10 1900
KGSP 73 1957 30 1980 56 1969 9 1900
1936 1950
1916
RECORDS FOR 02-02
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 1989 16 1908 52 1988 -2 1917
KCLT 80 1989 29 1908 61 1923 10 1917
KGSP 77 1989 28 1951 60 1923 9 1900
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-
082-501>510.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-
508-510.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-
507-509.
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR SCZ008>014-019-101>109.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR SCZ008>014-019-101>109.
JPT/RWH
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