843
FXUS62 KGSP 301801
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
101 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOW TOTALS HAVE TRENDED DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT WARNING CRITERIA SNOW IS
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM
4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 7 AM SUNDAY.
THE EXTREME COLD WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH 7 AM SUNDAY AS A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA. COLD TEMPERATURES LEADING UP TO AND DURING THE EVENT
WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS.
2. GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE WIND
CHILLS COULD RESULT IN HYPOTHERMIA OR FROSTBITE IF PRECAUTIONS
ARE NOT TAKEN.
3. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURN BY MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH 7 AM SUNDAY AS A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL
BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
COLD TEMPERATURES LEADING UP TO AND DURING THE EVENT WILL LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS.
A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE MIDWEST/TN VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS WITHIN THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE GSP FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE
UPPER LOW WILL SWING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT BRINGING HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION, ALLOWING DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS, SPREADING SOUTH AND
EAST LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHEST SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
THE 06Z ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A MESOLOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST
GEORGIA AND TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
ON SATURDAY, BUT THE 06Z NAM SHOWS THE MESOLOW DEVELOPING FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST, JUST ON THE EDGE THE GSP FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING ON
WHERE EXACTLY THIS MESOLOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS ON SATURDAY IS ONE OF
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES. THIS IS BECAUSE NORTH OF THE MESOLOW A
BAND OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP LEADING TO A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF HIGHER QPF. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS FRONTOGENESIS BAND
SETS UP, WE COULD SEE A BAND OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW DEVELOP ANYWHERE
FROM THE I-85 CORRIDOR TO JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SNOW
BAND COULD INFLATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IF IT DEVELOPS OVER THE I-85
CORRIDOR. FOR NOW, IT APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM 9-12+ INCHES ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER AND LOWER
AMOUNTS WEST OF I-26 IN THE WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA. TOTALS HAVE TRENDED DOWN SLIGHTLY
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT WARNING CRITERIA SNOW IS STILL
EXPECTED AREA-WIDE WITH NO CHANGES TO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS (SLRS) OF 15:1 TO 20:1 (RARE FOR OUR AREA AS
WE ARE TYPICALLY CLOSER TO A 10:1 RATIO) WILL LEAD TO A LIGHT,
POWDERY SNOW FOR THIS EVENT (NOT GREAT FOR MAKING SNOWBALLS BUT WILL
LIMIT POWER OUTAGE CONCERNS DUE TO LESS WEIGHT FROM THE SNOW ON
TREES AND POWERLINES). WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
TEENS TO 20S OVERNIGHT (SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
IN THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS), SNOW WILL STICK RAPIDLY TO ROADS
AND ELEVATED SURFACES (SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES) LEADING TO
HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO
LATE SUNDAY, AND WITH FLUFFIER SNOW EXPECTED, BLOWING SNOW COULD
LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WE STILL CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY FOR
AREAS THAT SEE 3 CONSECUTIVE HOURS OF 35 MPH OR GREATER WIND GUSTS
AND VISIBLITY OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS.
SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING IF YOU HAVE TO GET OUT
THIS WEEKEND. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL, KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT, FOOD,
AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
LEAD TO DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE
WIND CHILLS COULD RESULT IN HYPOTHERMIA OR FROSTBITE IF PRECAUTIONS
ARE NOT TAKEN.
GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, GRADUALLY TOGGLING NORTHWEST THOUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY.
WIND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20-25 MPH AREA-WIDE THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO 25-30 MPH EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND 30-45 MPH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MID-AFTERNOON SUNDAY. HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS COULD SEE GUSTS FROM 45-55 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY
FOR NOW. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BUT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SUNDAY NIGHT.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING INTO THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND THE
TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4,000 FEET SHOULD SEE LOWS FALL NEAR OR JUST BELOW
ZERO. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER, BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY WHERE HIGHS COULD REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THUS, THE EXTREME COLD
WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO AND EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE GSP
FORECAST AREA. TIMING FOR THE MOUNTAINS IS 1 PM SATURDAY THROUGH 1
PM SUNDAY AS WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 22 BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED, WITH
THE HIGHEST PEAKS SEEING WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 25 TO 30 BELOW ZERO.
TIMING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IS 7 PM SATURDAY THROUGH 10 AM SUNDAY
AS WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 5 BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED.
THESE WIND CHILLS COULD RESULT IN HYPOTHERMIA OR FROSTBITE IF
PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. DRESS IN LAYERS INCLUDING A HAT, FACE
MASK, AND GLOVES IF YOU MUST GO OUTSIDE. TO PREVENT WATER PIPES FROM
FREEZING; WRAP OR DRAIN OR ALLOW THEM TO DRIP SLOWLY. MAKE FREQUENT
CHECKS ON OLDER FAMILY, FRIENDS, AND NEIGHBORS. ENSURE PORTABLE
HEATERS ARE USED CORRECTLY. DO NOT USE GENERATORS OR GRILLS INSIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 3: TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN BY MID WEEK.
BY MONDAY, FLOW WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO OUT OF THE WEST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH BROAD UPPER NORTHWEST
FLOW FORM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL BRING AN
END TO COLD ADVECTION AND A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 30S OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL WELL BELOW
FREEZING, HOWEVER, AND WILL SUPPORT REFREEZING OF MELTING SNOW/ICE
EACH NIGHT.
HEADING INTO TUESDAY, A PIECE OF PACIFIC ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN THE
EASTERN FLANK OF A TALL WEST COAST RIDGE AND THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE VARIES AS TO
HOW THIS TROUGH EVOLVES WITH SOME MEMBERS MAINTAINING A POSITIVE TILT
WHILE OTHERS TRANSITION THE TROUGH INTO A NEUTRAL TO NEAR NEGATIVE
TILT WITH AN UPPER LOW TRYING TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. EVENTUALLY, THIS BRINGS A SLUG OF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
EXACT TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM, TRACK OF THE SUBSEQUENT SURFACE LOW,
AND AVAILABILITY OF COLD AIR WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE. AS OF NOW, ENSEMBLE MEANS FAVOR A MAINLY WET
SOLUTION FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH ANY WINTRY WEATHER BRIEF AT ONSET
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT
TRACK THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER SOUTH WITH A MORE FAVORABLE TROUGH
INTERACTION AND COLD AIR CLOSE BY. SHOULD THIS SCENARIO UNFOLD THERE
COULD BE A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER. THERE'S TOO MUCH
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO LEAN THE FORECAST EITHER WAY,
SO WILL MAINTAIN A RAIN OR SNOW PRECIPITATION TYPE THAT FOLLOWS THE
CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH THE
LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A WINTER STORM IMPACTS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WENT WITH PROB30S FOR THE ONSET OF -SN THEN
WENT WITH PREVAILING SN JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SN WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS FROM ~10Z
SATURDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS LOOK TO DROP TO
MOSTLY MVFR LEVELS, ALTHOUGH IFR CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY IF A HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPS RIGHT OVER A TERMINAL.
VSBYS WILL START OUT MVFR AT THE ONSET OF SNOW, TRENDING MORE
TOWARDS LIFR BY 10Z-12Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN NE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AT KAVL WILL REMAIN SE THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING MORE N/NNW BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, BECOMING GUSTY. WIND GUSTS FROM 20-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE TERMINALS TOWARDS THE END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: SNOW WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY BUT GUSTY NW
WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 01-31
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 78 1975 13 1909 57 1950 1 1966
KCLT 77 1975 27 1909 59 1950 4 1966
KGSP 79 1975 31 1934 60 1950 3 1966
1909
RECORDS FOR 02-01
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 74 1950 22 1898 55 1950 4 1909
KCLT 76 1950 27 1900 55 1896 10 1900
KGSP 73 1957 30 1980 56 1969 9 1900
1936 1950
1916
RECORDS FOR 02-02
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 1989 16 1908 52 1988 -2 1917
KCLT 80 1989 29 1908 61 1923 10 1917
KGSP 77 1989 28 1951 60 1923 9 1900
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-
082-501>510.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR SCZ008>014-019-101>109.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR SCZ008>014-019-101>109.
AR/TW
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