844
FXUS62 KGSP 010025
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
725 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED TIMING FOR THE END OF SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT, ALONG WITH NEW
INFO ON ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 7 AM SUNDAY.
AN EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
TIMING FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS IS NOW THROUGH 1 PM SUNDAY.
TIMING FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS 7 PM THIS EVENING
THROUGH 10 AM SUNDAY.
A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
THROUGH 1 PM SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM SUNDAY
FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
2. GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THESE WIND
CHILLS COULD RESULT IN HYPOTHERMIA OR FROSTBITE IF PRECAUTIONS
ARE NOT TAKEN.
3. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURN BY MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM
SUNDAY FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA, THOUGH
INTENSITY OF BANDING HAS DECREASED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
HOURLY QPES FROM ASOS/AWOS STATIONS HAVE LARGELY FALLEN TO A
TRACE OR HUNDREDTH, BUT BETTER RATES CONTINUE NEAR CHARLOTTE DUE
TO PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW (SLIGHTLY BETTER FRONTOGENETIC
RESPONSE ALOFT) AND DEEPER REMAINING MOISTURE. RATES ALSO MAY
HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE WEST SIMPLY BECAUSE THE COLUMN IS
COOLING AND MOISTURE ALOFT IS ACTUALLY AT TEMPS COLDER THAN -18C
AND THEREFORE COLDER THAN IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH TEMPS
(EVIDENCED BY 23Z SEMPE SOUNDING FROM UNC-ASHEVILLE). THUS THE
REMAINING SNOW THAT IS FALLING IS MORE AKIN TO SNOW GRAINS. WITH
DECREASE IN SNOW RATES, GUSTY WINDS, AND THE LIGHT FLUFFY
NATURE OF THE SNOW SO FAR, IT HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO
DISTINGUISH NEW SNOW FROM BLOWING SNOW. UPDATED POP AND QPF THRU
TONIGHT PER SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE BLEND, AND GENERALLY EXPECT
1-2" (LOCALLY 3") ADDITIONAL SNOW IN SOUTH OF I-85 AND EAST OF
US 321. THE SNOW SHOULD END FROM NW TO SE THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO 2
AM, EXCEPT WHERE NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALONG THE TN BORDER.
PER WEBCAMS THOSE AREAS TOO SEEM TO BE GETTING ONLY SNOW GRAINS
OR FLURRIES AT THIS POINT, BUT ACCUM OF AN INCH OR MORE IS STILL
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SIMILARLY GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS WILL BE HIGHER, THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ONCE
SNOW ENDS TONIGHT OR VERY EARLY SUN MORNING, NO ADDITIONAL
PRECIP IS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TUE. HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS
HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
CONSIDER STAYING PUT AND ONLY TRAVEL IF ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL, KEEP BLANKETS, AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT, FOOD, AND
WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
LEAD TO DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THESE
WIND CHILLS COULD RESULT IN HYPOTHERMIA OR FROSTBITE IF PRECAUTIONS
ARE NOT TAKEN.
GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF
SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR
AVERY, MITCHELL, YANCEY, BUNCOMBE COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAIN
ZONES OF CALDWELL, BURKE, MCDOWELL, RUTHERFORD, AND POLK COUNTIES
FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 1 PM SUNDAY AS WIND GUSTS FROM 45-55
MPH ARE EXPECTED. THESE WINDS WILL BLOW AROUND UNSECURED OBJECTS.
TREE LIMBS COULD BE BLOWN DOWN AND A FEW POWER OUTAGES MAY RESULT.
WIND GUSTS ELSEWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA,
RANGING FROM 20 TO 35 MPH.
MUCH COLDER TODAY, WITH TEMPS RANGING MOSTLY FROM THE TEENS TO 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4,000 FT ARE
RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
BUT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4,000 FEET SHOULD SEE LOWS FALL NEAR ZERO TO A
FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER, BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING THANKS TO LINGERING
SNOWPACK. THE EXCEPTION STILL APPEARS TO BE THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY WHERE HIGHS COULD REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THUS, THE EXTREME COLD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE GSP FORECAST AREA. TIMING
FOR THE NOW THROUGH 1 PM SUNDAY AS WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 22 BELOW
ZERO ARE EXPECTED. TIMING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IS 7 PM THIS EVENING
THROUGH 10 AM SUNDAY AS WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 5 BELOW ZERO ARE
EXPECTED. VERY COLD WIND CHILLS LOOK TO LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER, WITH
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER LATE SUNDAY INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY, WIND
CHILLS WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS WHAT WE WILL SEE TONIGHT. STILL, A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WIND CHILLS COULD RESULT IN HYPOTHERMIA OR FROSTBITE IF PRECAUTIONS
ARE NOT TAKEN. DRESS IN LAYERS INCLUDING A HAT, FACE MASK, AND
GLOVES IF YOU MUST GO OUTSIDE. TO PREVENT WATER PIPES FROM FREEZING;
WRAP OR DRAIN OR ALLOW THEM TO DRIP SLOWLY. MAKE FREQUENT CHECKS ON
OLDER FAMILY, FRIENDS, AND NEIGHBORS. ENSURE PORTABLE HEATERS ARE
USED CORRECTLY. DO NOT USE GENERATORS OR GRILLS INSIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 3: TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN BY MID WEEK.
BY MONDAY MORNING, THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED WELL
OFFSHORE WITH A PERIOD OF NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TRANSLATING ACROSS
THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS. LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL SHIFT TO OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY, THUS BRINGING A
GRADUAL END TO COLD ADVECTION AS THE FLOW BECOMES ORIENTED PARALLEL
TO THE ISOTHERMS. FOLLOWING A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM AT LEAST A NUMBER OF DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN
ELEVATIONS. A MELT/REFREEZE CYCLE WILL CONTINUE, HOWEVER, WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S TUESDAY
MORNING. WARMING CONTINUES ON TUESDAY AS A FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGE
PASSES ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 40S TO NEAR 50.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ALSO BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE BY THIS TIME AS A
PIECE OF PACIFIC ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE EASTERN FLANK OF A TALL WEST
COAST RIDGE. THIS CARVES OUT A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A BROAD AREA OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS.
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW(S) WILL
DEVELOP ALONG AN ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER
JET DYNAMICS. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH
THE LEADING EDGE PROGGED TO ARRIVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND PUSH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS OF NOW, THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR WINTER WEATHER WITH A LACK OF A WELL DEFINED SURFACE
LOW AND STRONG POSITIVE TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH. FURTHERMORE, IT'S
UNCLEAR HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
BAND OF PRECIPITATION. SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR A
RAIN AND/OR SNOW MIX MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. INVESTIGATING FURTHER IN
CLUSTER ANALYSIS, THE CLUSTER WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW IS DOMINATED BY MEMBERS OF THE CMC ENSEMBLE (GEPS)
AND ONLY MAKES UP 17% OF THE OVERALL GRAND ENSEMBLE COMPRISING THE
GEFS/EPS/GEPS. THIS SCENARIO IS DRIVEN BY A STRONG WEST COAST RIDGE
AND A STRONG UPPER TROUGH THAT IS ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF COLD
ENOUGH AIR OVERNIGHT. THE REMAINING 3 CLUSTERS HAVE MUCH LOWER
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE SNOW AND FEATURE BOTH A WEAKER WEST COAST
RIDGE AND UPPER TROUGH. THUS, WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX AT PRECIPITATION ONSET ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR
NOW, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. THEREAFTER, TEMPERATURES ATTEMPT TO
RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES LATE WEEK TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: SNOWFALL RATES HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE
TERMINAL AREA, BRINGING VSBY BACK TO THE VFR RANGE AT MANY SITES,
THOUGH BLOWING SNOW IS STILL OCCURRING IN SOME LOCATIONS, CAUSING
IFR TO LIFR VSBY EVEN WITH MINIMAL NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION. RATES
REMAIN MOST SIGNIFICANT AT KCLT WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" OF
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH 06-08Z. -SN STILL FALLING AT
KAVL/KAND/KHKY BUT THOSE SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT. CIGS
ALREADY VFR WHERE SNOW HAS DIMINISHED AND OTHERWISE WILL LIFT TO
VFR OVERNIGHT, BEFORE SCATTERING. NW GUSTS TO 35+ KT LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AT KAVL, NOT WEAKENING APPRECIABLY UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK SUN. BRISK NW WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT LIKELY
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT ELSEWHERE. LLWS LIKELY IN
THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS AT KGSP/KGMU IN THE 06Z-14Z TIMEFRAME;
CRITERIA MAY BE MET HERE AND THERE OTHERWISE BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO MENTION.
OUTLOOK: WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
BACK ON WEDNESDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 01-31
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 78 1975 13 1909 57 1950 1 1966
KCLT 77 1975 27 1909 59 1950 4 1966
KGSP 79 1975 31 1934 60 1950 3 1966
1909
RECORDS FOR 02-01
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 74 1950 22 1898 55 1950 4 1909
KCLT 76 1950 27 1900 55 1896 10 1900
KGSP 73 1957 30 1980 56 1969 9 1900
1936 1950
1916
RECORDS FOR 02-02
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 1989 16 1908 52 1988 -2 1917
KCLT 80 1989 29 1908 61 1923 10 1917
KGSP 77 1989 28 1951 60 1923 9 1900
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GAZ010-017-018-
026-028-029.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GAZ010-017-018-
026-028-029.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ033-035>037-
048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ035>037-056-
057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ033-048>053-
058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-053-065-
501-503-505-507-509.
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR SCZ008>014-019-
101>109.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR SCZ008>014-019-
101>109.
AR/JCW/TW
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