301
FXUS62 KGSP 011129
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
629 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED TO KEEP LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE TN BORDER A LITTLE
LONGER. REVISED TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING
BASED ON OBS.
WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM. NO CHANGES TO THE EXTREME
COLD WARNING OR WIND ADVISORY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT
7 AM.
2. GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD
TO DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING. THESE WIND CHILLS
COULD RESULT IN HYPOTHERMIA OR FROSTBITE IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT
TAKEN. SIMILARLY COLD IF NOT COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, THOUGH WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AS SEVERE.
3. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURN BY MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NC MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE
AT 7 AM.
SURFACE LOW AMPLIFYING OFF THE OUTER BANKS AND STILL EXPECTED TO
TRACK NE OFF THE EAST COAST. CLOUDS AND SNOW HAVE DISSIPATED OUTSIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS, BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME BLOWING SNOW
CONTINUES FOR THE TN BORDER COUNTIES INTO BUNCOMBE. NO SIGNIFICANT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED, BUT THE BLOWING SNOW COULD LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE VERY GUSTY WINDS IN PLACE.
IN THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WHERE OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 35-50 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE THRU SUNDAY MORNING, BLOWING SNOW COULD CAUSE VSBY TO
DROP BELOW 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. THOUGH THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS SET
TO END AT 7 AM, HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CONSIDER STAYING PUT AND ONLY TRAVEL IF
ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL, KEEP BLANKETS, AN EXTRA
FLASHLIGHT, FOOD, AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
LEAD TO DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING. THESE WIND CHILLS
COULD RESULT IN HYPOTHERMIA OR FROSTBITE IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT
TAKEN. SIMILARLY COLD IF NOT COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING, THOUGH WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AS SEVERE.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE MAINTAINED MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY
(SUNDAY) EVEN AS SFC LOW DEPARTS, WITH CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW
ALLOWING CONTINENTAL SFC HIGH TO EXPAND SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. GUSTS OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINS IN THE RANGES NE OF AVL, AND
ALONG THE EAST-FACING BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT, WILL REMAIN 45-55 MPH
THROUGH LATE MORNING. THIS PROMPTED ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THAT AREA THRU 18Z SUNDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH PERSIST
EVEN IN THE VALLEYS. THE WINDS COMBINE WITH MOUNTAIN TEMPS DIPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR EVEN BELOW ZERO, AND WIDESPREAD WIND
CHILLS BELOW -15F ARE EXPECTED THERE THROUGH THE MORNING. OUTSIDE
THE MOUNTAINS, WIND IS NOT AS STRONG BUT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS, WIND CHILLS FALL TO 0F TO -5F IN
MANY LOCATIONS. EXTREME COLD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE HAZARDOUS
COLD THRU 18Z IN THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS, AND 15Z ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE TRICKY AS MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE TO
ACCOUNT FOR SNOWPACK. FAVORED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH VERFIED
BEST WITH LAST MONDAY'S TEMPS FOLLOWING THE WEEKEND ICE/SLEET;
THIS SUGGESTS THE MOUNTAINS REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S
THRU THE DAY AND BRINGS MOST PIEDMONT AREAS TO AROUND FREEZING,
COMPARATIVELY WARMER THAN SATURDAY'S DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE
MID-20S. SO, WE'LL BE STARTING OFF A LITTLE WARMER THAN WE WERE
SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS RELAX LATE SUNDAY AS HIGH CENTERS WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE WINDS WON'T BE AS BIG OF
A FACTOR IN PRODUCING WIND CHILLS, THE PROXIMITY TO THE HIGH
SUGGESTS MORE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIVE COOLING, AND THERE'S THE
LINGERING QUESTION OF SNOWPACK. CONSIDERING THE VARIOUS FACTORS,
DID DECIDE TO GO A LITTLE BELOW NBM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT MINS, MOST
APPRECIABLE IN THE NC PIEDMONT WITH 10+ INCHES OF SNOW ON THE
GROUND. OTHERWISE, CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT'S LOWS. WITHOUT THE
WIND, COLD WX ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE MET BUT ON A MORE LOCALIZED
BASIS. THINK LATER CYCLES OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
AT INCORPORATING THE SNOW COVER. GIVEN THAT AND FOR SIMPLICITY OF
MESSAGING, HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY COLD WX ADVISORIES FOR SUN NIGHT,
THOUGH WON'T RULE IT OUT ONCE CURRENT EXTREME COLD WARNING EXPIRES.
WIND CHILLS COULD RESULT IN HYPOTHERMIA OR FROSTBITE IF PRECAUTIONS
ARE NOT TAKEN. DRESS IN LAYERS INCLUDING A HAT, FACE MASK, AND
GLOVES IF YOU MUST GO OUTSIDE. TO PREVENT WATER PIPES FROM FREEZING;
WRAP OR DRAIN OR ALLOW THEM TO DRIP SLOWLY. MAKE FREQUENT CHECKS
ON OLDER FAMILY, FRIENDS, AND NEIGHBORS. ENSURE PORTABLE HEATERS
ARE USED CORRECTLY. DO NOT USE GENERATORS OR GRILLS INSIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 3: TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN BY MID WEEK.
BY MONDAY MORNING, THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL BE MOVING OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST WITH A BROAD AREA OF NW UPPER FLOW TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, HELPING
TO BRING A GRADUAL END TO COLD ADVECTION AS THE FLOW BECOMES
ORIENTED MORE PARALLEL TO THE ISOTHERMS. FOLLOWING A VERY COLD
START TO THE DAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM AT LEAST A
NUMBER OF DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS OUR FCST AREA, EXCEPT
AT THE HIGHER MTN ELEVATIONS. A MELT/REFREEZE CYCLE WILL CONTINUE,
HOWEVER, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOW 20S TUESDAY MORNING. WARMING CONTINUES ON TUESDAY AS A FLAT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE TRANSLATES OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ALSO BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE BY THIS TIME AS
BROAD UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE EASTERN FLANK OF A
TALL/STOUT WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE. THIS CARVES OUT A POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY WITH A
BROAD AREA OF SWLY MID/UPPER FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE GULF STATES
INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A
WEAK SFC LOW(S) ALONG AN ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT WITH THE LEADING EDGE PROGGED TO REACH THE NC MTNS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND THEN PUSH ACROSS OUR FCST
AREA OVERNIGHT THRU WED MORNING. OVERALL, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
STILL DOESN'T LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WX WITH
THE LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED SFC LOW AND A STRONG POSITIVE TILT TO
THE UPPER TROF. FURTHERMORE, IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH COLD AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF ANY PRECIPITATION. SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
HAVE A CHANCE FOR A RAIN AND/OR SNOW MIX MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NC MTNS AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. AS SUCH, I
HAVE KEPT A CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE AREAS MENTIONED
ABOVE, BUT ONLY ELEVATIONS ABOVE ROUGHLY 3500 FT HAVE ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. AFTER THAT, THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS MOSTLY DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR-NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: OTHER THAN SOME PASSING ALTOCU, EXPECT SKC
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. KAVL WILL SEE
MVFR STRATOCU SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE MORNING, ALONG WITH SOME
FLURRIES AND MVFR VSBY FROM BLOWING SNOW. THE RESTRICTIONS SHOULD
END BY MID MORNING, BUT DRIFTING SNOW COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. LLWS AT KGSP/KGMU SHOULD END BY MID MORNING AS WELL. LOW END
GUSTY NW WIND THROUGH THE DAY FOR ALL BUT KAVL WHERE VERY GUSTY NNW
WIND CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH BY EVENING WITH LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 02-01
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 74 1950 22 1898 55 1950 4 1909
KCLT 76 1950 27 1900 55 1896 10 1900
KGSP 73 1957 30 1980 56 1969 9 1900
1936 1950
1916
RECORDS FOR 02-02
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 1989 16 1908 52 1988 -2 1917
KCLT 80 1989 29 1908 61 1923 10 1917
KGSP 77 1989 28 1951 60 1923 9 1900
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010-
017-018-026-028-029.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010-
017-018-026-028-029.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-
035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-
048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-049-050-
053-065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
SCZ008>014-019-101>109.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
SCZ008>014-019-101>109.
JCW/JPT/RWH
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