775
FXUS62 KGSP 012352
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
652 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES TO COLD WX ADVISORY AT THIS ISSUANCE. WE RETAIN A SPECIAL
WX STATEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TO HIGHLIGHT WIDESPREAD
BLACK ICE AND HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY MORNING.
UPDATED OVERNIGHT TEMP TRENDS PRIMARILY BASED ON LATEST NBM,
WHICH APPEARS REASONABLY ON TRACK.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LINGERING SNOWPACK COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD
TO BLACK ICE AS WELL AS VERY COLD WIND CHILLS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. BLACK ICE WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS AND
VERY COLD WIND CHILLS COULD RESULT IN HYPOTHERMIA OR FROSTBITE
IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
2. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURN BY MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LINGERING SNOWPACK COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL LEAD TO BLACK ICE AS WELL AS VERY COLD WIND CHILLS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. BLACK ICE WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS
AND VERY COLD WIND CHILLS COULD RESULT IN HYPOTHERMIA OR FROSTBITE
IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
KEEPING DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS AROUND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
RISING ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, HIGHER ELEVATIONS
IN THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SUNSHINE WAS EFFECTIVE IN
MELTING SNOW IN MANY AREAS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, ONCE
THE SUN SETS, ANY MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND WILL QUICKLY REFREEZE
ONTO ROADS, PARKING LOTS, SIDEWALKS, DRIVEWAYS, BRIDGES, AND
OVERPASSES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT LEADING TO WIDESPREAD BLACK
ICE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTS
THIS POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE CWA. IF TRAVELING, BE PREPARED FOR
HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES
AS WELL AS ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN WALKING
ON SIDEWALKS, DRIVEWAYS, AND IN PARKING LOTS.
GUSTY WINDS STILL BEING REPORTED IN HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS
AND AT ASHEVILLE AIRPORT, BUT THOSE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER
OFF GRADUALLY THROUGH THE EVENING. TEMPS MANAGED TO WARM MORE
THAN EXPECTED IN MUCH OF THE CWA, EVEN IN THE I-77 CORRIDOR WHERE
MOST PLACES STARTED THE DAY WITH 8-12" OF SNOW DEPTH. WITH THE
DIMINISHING WINDS, HOWEVER, THE COMBINATION OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND THE SNOWPACK WILL RESULT IN A NIGHT SIMILARLY COLD TO LAST
NIGHT, AND LIKELY 2-4 DEGREES COLDER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
WINDS CALM.COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LINGERING WIND GUSTS
WILL ALLOW VERY COLD WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW ZERO TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS, WITH MOST LOCATIONS STILL SEEING
WIND CHILL BELOW -5 EVEN AFTER WINDS WEAKEN LATE IN THE NIGHT.
THUS, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY STILL IN EFFECT FOR THESE ZONES FROM
6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 9 AM MONDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS LEADING TO WIND CHILLS AS
LOW AS 5 DEGREES, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR THE
NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 9 AM
MONDAY. WEAR APPROPRIATE CLOTHING, A HAT, AND GLOVES. MAKE FREQUENT
CHECKS ON OLDER FAMILY, FRIENDS, AND NEIGHBORS. ENSURE PORTABLE
HEATERS ARE USED CORRECTLY. DO NOT USE GENERATORS OR GRILLS INSIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN
BY MID WEEK.
FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND THE APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY MORNING WHILE A PIECE OF PACIFIC
ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE EASTERN FLANK OF A TALL WEST COAST RIDGE. THIS
WILL CARVE OUT A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH A BROAD ZONE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE GULF STATES
INTO THE CAROLINAS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE DROPPING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/TENNESSEE WITH A BROAD
ZONE OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION ENCROACHES ON THE MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY EVENING WHERE
RAIN CHANCES ARE THE HIGHEST. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN MUCH COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE POSITIVE TROUGH ORIENTATION AND LACK OF
STRONGER FORCING AND A WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WILL PROVE HOSTILE
TO MAINTENANCE OF THE PRECIPITATION BAND. GUIDANCE HAS ALSO TRENDED
WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH EVEN FEWER ENSEMBLES MEMBERS
COLD ENOUGH FOR WINTRY WEATHER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, THE MAJORITY
OF WHICH REMAIN DOMINATED BY THE GEPS. THUS, WILL CONFINE ANY
RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH JUST RAIN ELSEWHERE. A FEW
MEMBERS OF GUIDANCE HAVE HINTED AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SURFACE LOW
TO TRY AND DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE REGION. THERE ARE ALSO
INDICATIONS THAT AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY EXTEND UP I-26 FROM
THE COAST. GUIDANCE THAT FAVORS THIS SOLUTION ATTEMPTS TO BLOSSOM
ANOTHER BOUT OF ANAFRONTAL PRECIPITATION INTO COLD AIR OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO, SO
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST TO JUST RAIN AND THEN DRYING. TEMPERATURES
MAKE A RUN AT RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE BY LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: DRY AND VFR THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. GUSTS
ARE ON A DECREASING TREND OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS BUT SAW FIT
TO RETAIN GUSTS AT KAVL THRU 05Z. SOME OTHER SITES HAD ALREADY
DROPPED GUSTS AS OF THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE TIME AND SOME APPEAR
TO ALREADY BE DECOUPLING WITH DIRECTION BECOMING ERRATIC IF NOT
OUTRIGHT VRB. KCLT DOES LOOK LIKELY TO REMAIN LIGHT NW OVERNIGHT,
BUT AT THE REMAINING SITES (OTHER THAN KAVL) ALLOWED VRB AT SOME
POINT. ALL SITES EXCEPT KAVL PICK UP FROM THE SW BY MID-MORNING
MONDAY; WITH ONLY 3-4 KT WINDS EXPECTED AT KHKY LET THE VRB RIDE
THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD THERE. A FEW CIRRUS WILL DRIFT IN
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MIDLEVEL CLOUDS AT 070-090 ALSO SEEN MONDAY;
AT KAVL A FEW LOWER VFR CLOUDS ALSO EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT BRINGS
PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS BACK TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
LATE WEDNESDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 02-01
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 74 1950 22 1898 55 1950 4 1909
KCLT 76 1950 27 1900 55 1896 10 1900
KGSP 73 1957 30 1980 56 1969 9 1900
1936 1950
1916
RECORDS FOR 02-02
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 1989 16 1908 52 1988 -2 1917
KCLT 80 1989 29 1908 61 1923 10 1917
KGSP 77 1989 28 1951 60 1923 9 1900
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ033-035>037-
049-050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ008-009-
011>014-019-103-106>109.
AR/JCW/TW
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