908
FXUS62 KGSP 161057
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
557 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE IMPENDING 12Z
TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO THIS MORNING, BEFORE DRY AND
WARM HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK.
2. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN
CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO THIS MORNING, BEFORE DRY
AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, ALBEIT
WITH PATCHY GROUND FOG IN A FEW SPOTS, MAINLY IN THE NC PIEDMONT.
MORE OR LESS AS EXPECTED, COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS HAS TAKEN PLACE OVER
THE OUTER BANKS, USHERING IN A WEAK CAA REGIME THAT'S HELPED TO
SCATTER OUT SOME MOISTURE AND KEEP FOG MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY N AT 5-10KTS, BUT WITH FEWER GUSTS THAN
EXPECTED. WINDS HAVE BEEN ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG, AND THERE ARE NO PLANS TO ISSUE ANY DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH LATE MORNING AS
15-25KT FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MIXES DOWN...BUT AS THE PARENT
LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE COASTAL CHESAPEAKE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, AND EVENTUALLY DRIFTS OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON,
CAA WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE, ALLOWING WINDS TO DIE DOWN AND LEAVING
US MOSTLY CLEAR BY NOON OR SO. BY MID-AFTERNOON, DETERMINISTIC
PROFILES DEPICT A DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE 900MB OR SO, BENEATH
WHICH A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
IT'S A BIT QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THIS DRY AIR WILL MIX TO THE
SURFACE, GIVEN A STOUT A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE PBL,
BUT ALSO FAIRLY BREEZY, TURBULENT WINDS WITHIN THIS INVERSION LAYER.
ANY DEWPOINT MIXING THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE OF LITTLE IMPACT,
THOUGH, SINCE IT'D HAVE TO OVERCOME LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE TO
AFFECT RHS, AND WE'VE RECEIVED FAR TOO MUCH RAIN IN THE LAST 24
HOURS TO ENTERTAIN ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
SOME GUIDANCE DEPICTS A RETURN OF SOME PATCHY FOG MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING. INDEED, SKIES WILL BE CLEAR MOST OF THE NIGHT,
SO LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA COULD SEE ENOUGH RADIATIVE COOLING
FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED FOG TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
TRUE ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR, WHERE POSTFRONTAL CAA WILL HAVE
LIKELY HAD THE LEAST IMPACT ON LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. WHATEVER FOG
DEVELOPS SHOULD SCATTER OUT QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING, GIVING WAY
TO A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY ON TUESDAY AS PROGRESSIVE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES EASTWARD, RESULTING IN A WEAK SOUTHERLY MOISTURE RETURN
AND ASSOCIATED WARMING TREND BEGINNING BY MID-DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WARM WEATHER CONTINUES MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE.
BY WEDNESDAY, GUIDANCE AND RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS REMAIN IN
LARGELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FLAT UPPER RIDING WILL EXTEND FROM
MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. FARTHER NORTH, ON
THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE RIDGE, AN EXTENDED BELT OF DEEP-LAYER
WESTERLIES WILL RESIDE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE
APPALACHIANS. THIS SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL FOSTER CONTINUED WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITHIN AN EXPANSIVE WARM SECTOR AND RISING
HEIGHTS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S
WEDNESDAY TO THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S BY FRIDAY. DAILY RECORDS MAY
BE CHALLENGED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. SPEAKING OF, THE PATTERN WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY PERTURBED AS A PIECE OF PACIFIC ENERGY DROPS THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN AND TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS. AHEAD OF THIS MAIN
FEATURE OF INTEREST, SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OHIO VALLEY. A LEAD SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT
ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS FROM ISOLATED/STRAY ON WEDNESDAY TO SCATTERED ON
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS. BY
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE MAIN TROUGH WILL EJECT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LIFT THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
APPALACHIANS. GUIDANCE BEGINS TO QUICKLY DIVERGE AT THIS POINT AS TO
TIMING OF A POTENTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS
COVERAGE OF ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. ONE CAMP FEATURES A FASTER FRONT
WITH A DRIER FRONTAL PASSAGE, WHILE OTHER CAMPS STALL THE FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA AND TRAIN ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. AS OF
THIS WRITING, FORECAST CONFIDENCE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND REMAINS
LOW AND THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE REFINED AS GUIDANCE COMES INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: SEEING SOME SPOTTY GROUND FOG, RANGING
FROM MVFR TO LIFR, ACROSS THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
MOST LOCATIONS, HOWEVER, ARE VFR AT THIS POINT, AND SHOULD REMAIN
THAT WAY GOING FORWARD. EXPECT A STEADY NE WIND MOST OF THE DAY,
TOGGLING AROUND TO THE SE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING
LIGHTER AND S/SW EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD
OVERNIGHT ALSO, WITH VFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG BEFORE DAWN TUESDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR.
OUTLOOK: VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MOST OF THE WEEK.
RAIN MAY RETURN TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MPR/TW
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