103
FXUS62 KGSP 161811
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
111 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1. GENERALLY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WORKWEEK, TRENDING WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY.
2. SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN LATE WED INTO THU AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THIS
WEEKEND, AS TEMPS TREND COOLER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: GENERALLY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORKWEEK, TRENDING WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE EAST COAST, WITH SURFACE RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM THE NE CONUS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. 925-700MB
RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA TODAY, SHIFTING EAST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH IN TURN MIGRATES EASTWARD OVER THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. THESE CHANGES WILL
PERMIT INCREASINGLY DEEP SW'LY LOW TO MIDLEVEL FLOW, AND GRADUAL
HEIGHT RISES ALOFT, PROMOTING A SLOW UPWARD TREND IN AFTERNOON
MAX TEMPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY; MAXES IN THE PIEDMONT AND MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE 60S, 5-10 ABOVE NORMAL.
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT DEPTH OF MIXING THIS AFTERNOON,
THOUGH VERY DRY AIR IS PRESENT ABOVE THE INVERSION. A FEW OBS
SITES ALREADY HAVE SHOWN LOCALIZED DIPS IN DEWPOINTS SIMILAR
TO WHAT WOULD BE SEEN ON A GOOD-MIXING DAY, THOUGH SO FAR NOT
OUTPACING THE DIURNAL DECLINE SHOWN IN MODEL BLENDED GUIDANCE. RH
IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CRITICALLY LOW VALUES FOR FIRE WEATHER, AND
SOILS/FUELS ARE DAMP FOLLOWING THE STEADY RAIN ON SUNDAY ANYWAY. THE
LIMITED MIXING HOWEVER DOES SUGGEST CROSSOVER TEMPS WILL BE KEPT
ELEVATED. WITH SFC HIGH BEING CENTERED OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SKIES
REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR, STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED,
AND CROSSOVER TEMPS LOOK LIKELY TO BE REACHED. HENCE AREAS OF FOG,
AND SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY OR
LESS, ARE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING; GREATEST POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN I-85 AND THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT.
THE WARMING TREND TOWARD MIDWEEK WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE IN TERMS
OF MIN TEMPS, WITH WINDS REMAINING SW'LY AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE SFC HIGH AND THE SFC/UPPER LOW
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, KEEPING WINDS UP OVERNIGHT. WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM EFFECTIVELY CROSSES THE AREA LATE
TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED, SO FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE
AND WOULD ALSO HELP BUOY OVERNIGHT TEMPS. AS THAT SYSTEM OCCLUDES
ITS COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL AND REVERSE OVER THE TN VALLEY,
AS NEXT LOW DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SMALL
20-30% POPS ARE FORECAST WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER. CURRENT FORECAST MINS WED NIGHT CHALLENGE THE RECORD
HIGH-MINS AT GSP AND CLT, WITH AFTN MAXES THU JUST SHY OF RECORDS
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AND SUGGESTING TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE THE
HI-MIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT. RECORD MAX TEMPS ALSO APPEAR
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN LATE WED INTO
THU AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
INTO THIS WEEKEND, AS TEMPS TREND COOLER.
AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY WEEK, MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A POTENTIAL
PATTERN CHANGE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. LEADING UP TO FRIDAY, THE
OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS BENIGN AS THE MID-LEVEL AIR REMAINS QUASI
ZONAL AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY. HOWEVER, A FEW OF THE MODELS IN THE LONG RANGE DEPICT A
WEAK FUJIWHARA EFFECT OF TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST, THROWING A KINK IN THE 500MB FLOW. THOUGH THE SFC LOWS
THEMSELVES HAVE NO DIRECT EFFECT ON THE CWA, THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WED NIGHT, AND
IS REACTIVATED AS A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES, BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR PRECIP BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND GENERALLY INCREASING FROM
THERE. CURRENTLY, THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS DISAGREE AND CONFIDENCE
LOWERS AS WHERE THE SYSTEM TRAVERSES WILL HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON
DOWNSTREAM PRECIPITATION. FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST, RAIN CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE HIGHER OVER THE MOUNTAINS, SO KEEPING POPS IN THE 50%
TO 70% RANGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME, THE
PROBABILITY FOR AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD THIS
WEEKEND IS ABOUT A 20-30% ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL CHANGE BUT SO FAR,
DOESN'T LOOK TO BE A HIGHLY IMPACTFUL HYDRO EVENT. AFTER THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTH, THE MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON
AGREEMENT OF THE NEXT BOUT OF RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE THIS
FAR OUT IS TOO LOW FOR ANY DETAILS BUT ONCE THE RAIN MOVES OUT,
COLDER AND DRIER AIR LOOK TO BE USHERED IN. GUIDANCE DIPS
TEMPERATURES INTO THE NORMAL OR JUST BELOW NORMAL RANGE TO END THE
WEEKEND AND START THE NEW WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. LIGHT MAINLY NE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SFC CONDITIONS REMAINING SLIGHTLY TOO
DRY FOR CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. WINDS LOOK TO VEER TO SE AROUND/AFTER
SUNSET BUT SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT/VRB OVERNIGHT UNDER
CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIMITED MIXING THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADDITION TO THE CLEAR SKIES SUGGEST GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING TONIGHT,
AND THAT CROSSOVER TEMPS ARE LIKELY BE REACHED. AT KAND AND KHKY
GUIDANCE SIGNAL IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR PREVAILING MVFR VSBY NEAR
DAYBREAK. TEMPO ELSEWHERE, ASIDE FROM KAVL WHICH LOOKS TO REMAIN
TOO DRY. AT KAND, WITH MORE GUIDANCE SUPPORT DUE TO WEAK LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE, THE TEMPO REFLECTS IFR. ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD MIX
OUT BY 13-14Z WITH MAINLY JUST CIRRUS SEEN THEREAFTER, AND LIGHT
SW'LY WINDS (SE AT KAVL).
OUTLOOK: NOCTURNAL FOG/STRATUS CAN'T BE RULED OUT NEAR DAYBREAK
WED OR THU. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH MIDWEEK. RAIN MAY RETURN TO
THE AREA BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 02-18
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 72 1897 15 1958 55 1891 0 1958
KCLT 78 2011 25 1979 62 1891 5 1958
1891
KGSP 78 2011 26 1979 55 1975 2 1958
RECORDS FOR 02-19
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 72 2014 16 2015 54 1951 3 2015
KCLT 76 2014 26 2015 55 1961 8 1958
1939
KGSP 75 2014 30 2015 55 1961 9 1958
1916 1900 1900
1911
RECORDS FOR 02-20
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 75 1939 26 1908 54 2018 4 2015
KCLT 77 2014 31 2015 59 1939 7 2015
1890
KGSP 75 2014 33 2015 57 1939 9 2015
1986
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CP/JCW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page