220
FXUS62 KGSP 170504
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1204 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FORECAST FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DAY OF
WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.
2. RAIN RETURNS BY THE END OF THE WEEK, AND A PATTERN CHANGE MAY
BE IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
DAY OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
SLIDES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS IN ADVANCE
OF AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TRADITIONAL COOL DRAINAGE LOCATIONS THAT ARE ABLE TO COOL TO OR
BELOW THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE
PATCHY FOG, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF FOG IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA, HOWEVER.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN RETURNS BY THE END OF THE WEEK, AND A PATTERN
CHANGE MAY BE IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL A REGIME CHANGE BY NEXT WEEKEND.
LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT ON THE PERSISTENCE OF
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, BUT WITH
STEADILY INCREASING SYNOPTIC FORCING AT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVELS.
THE SURFACE PATTERN DURING THIS TIME HONESTLY BEARS A STRIKING
RESEMBLANCE TO THE BERMUDA HIGH SETUP WE TYPICALLY SEE DURING LATE
SUMMER...WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC, AND NO STRONG DYNAMICAL FEATURES ALOFT, AT LEAST OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
BY THURSDAY, THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE MIDWEST SHOULD BEGIN
TO AMPLIFY. GUIDANCE DOESN'T HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON IT YET, BUT A
PRE-EXISTING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IS DEPICTED
INTERACTING WITH A WEAKER DEVELOPING TROUGH AXIS, ORIGINATING OVER
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT RANGE BUT RAPIDLY EJECTING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND WINDING UP SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES OR UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THAT THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS VIRTUALLY A GIVEN
BASED ON THE LATEST ROUND OF GLOBAL ENSEMBLES; WHERE THAT WILL
HAPPEN IS UNCLEAR, BUT ULTIMATELY UNIMPORTANT: FOR THE CAROLINAS,
WE'LL ESSENTIALLY FIND OURSELVES IN A MASSIVE WARM SECTOR EITHER
WAY, AND THE RESULTANT MOISTURE FLUX SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. QPF RESPONSE LOOKS LIMITED AT
THIS TIME - WITH EVEN THE 95TH PERCENTILE OF RAINFALL TOTALS FOR
THIS PERIOD LIKELY BEING TOO LOW FOR SERIOUS HYDRO CONCERNS.
WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THAT IS ANYONE'S GUESS. ENSEMBLES SORT OF
AGREE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO OCCLUDE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
(OR THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES, OR THE ALLEGHENIES), AFTER WHICH THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL BECOME ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE UPPER
FLOW AND WASH OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
SOME GUIDANCE THEN REACTIVATES THE BOUNDARY AS A WARM FRONT ON
SUNDAY, OR EVEN DEPICTS CYCLOGENESIS DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS,
RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL IN THE D6-7 TIMEFRAME.
OTHER GUIDANCE (PRIMARILY THE EC ENSEMBLES AND ) KEEPS THE FRONT
MORE PROGRESSIVE, RESULTING IN DRIER AND MARKEDLY COOLER WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. THE DETAILS ARE NOT YET CLEAR; CONFIDENCE
WILL ONLY IMPROVE WITH TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS THE REGION, BUT WILL BE OF NO IMPACT. A FEW INSTANCES
OF PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT EARLY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
PLACEMENT AND DURATION REMAIN LIMITED AT THIS TIME. ANY FOG WILL
QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 6-10KTS THIS
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
OUTLOOK: NOCTURNAL FOG/STRATUS CAN'T BE RULED OUT NEAR DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH MIDWEEK. RAIN MAY
RETURN TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 02-18
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 72 1897 15 1958 55 1891 0 1958
KCLT 78 2011 25 1979 62 1891 5 1958
1891
KGSP 78 2011 26 1979 55 1975 2 1958
RECORDS FOR 02-19
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 72 2014 16 2015 54 1951 3 2015
KCLT 76 2014 26 2015 55 1961 8 1958
1939
KGSP 75 2014 30 2015 55 1961 9 1958
1916 1900 1900
1911
RECORDS FOR 02-20
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 75 1939 26 1908 54 2018 4 2015
KCLT 77 2014 31 2015 59 1939 7 2015
1890
KGSP 75 2014 33 2015 57 1939 9 2015
1986
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MPR/TW
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