220
FXUS62 KGSP 171746
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1246 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CLOUDY SKIES, GUSTY WINDS, AND MILD TEMPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SPOTTY
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED WARM.
2. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK,
WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
3. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WEEKEND
RAIN, FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND NORTHWEST FLOW
SNOW SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED WARM.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT SLIDES EASTWARD
WEDNESDAY AS SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW. AT
THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA WITH AN
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. EXPECT INCREASING CIRRUS
INTO THE EVENING WITH LOWER CLOUDS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT. CAN'T RULE
OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS, BUT ANY PRECIP WOULD
BE VERY LIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING, BUT LINGER AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. GUSTY WINDS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. HIGHS WEDNESDAY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE THE
CLOUDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST LATE IN
THE WEEK, WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
THE AXIS OF A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE GREAT PLAINS THU THROUGH FRI, WITH THE CORE OF THE
UPPER JET AND UNDERLYING BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINING WEST=>NORTH OF
OUR AREA UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL
SPEED MAXIMA IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ACTIVATION OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE, ALONG WITH A BROAD WARM ADVECTION RESPONSE ACROSS OUR AREA
WED NIGHT INTO THU, WARRANTING MOSTLY TOKEN CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THIS TIME FRAME, WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EXPECTED. FOLLOWING QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE INITIAL SPEED MAX,
THE NEXT ONE IS FORECAST TO NUDGE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE INTO THE CWA BY THE END OF FRIDAY, WITH PERHAPS BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...AND IN FACT, LIKELY
POPS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. NEVERTHELESS, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE TO SAY THE
LEAST. THEREFORE THE LARGER STORY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
WILL BE THE VERY TOASTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR
REGIME SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. FORECAST TEMPERATURES WED
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ARE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF WHERE MAXES
SHOULD BE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WHILE RECORD DAILY HIGHS WILL BE
IN JEOPARDY AT ALL THREE CLIMATE SITES ON FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WEEKEND RAIN, FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND NORTHWEST
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY NIGHT: A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES, ALONG WITH A COMPACT UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONSPIRE TO CARVE OUT A RATHER DEEP, ALBEIT
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS OUR
REGION FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH POPS RAMPING UP TO 50-60%
ACROSS THE CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DEPENDING UPON THE
EVENTUAL LOCATION AND TRACK OF A CYCLONE, A LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THREAT...PERHAPS EVEN A SMALL SEVERE STORM THREAT COULD
EVENTUALLY MATERIALIZE, AS THERE IS LIKELY TO BE SOME WEAK BUOYANCY
IN THE WARM SECTOR. HAVING SAID THAT, MODEL SIGNALS FOR EITHER
THREAT ARE NOT AT ALL STRONG AT THIS TIME. EITHER WAY, THIS DOES
APPEAR TO BE ANOTHER EVENT THAT SHOULD PUT AT LEAST A SMALL DENT IN
THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
AS COLD ADVECTION SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY, A MOIST NORTHWEST/UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AT
LEAST SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS, WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE USUAL TENNESSEE BORDER AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL OTHERWISE COOL SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND, WITH MAXES
FORECAST TO BE NEAR-NORMAL ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY TEMPS OF 5-10
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING, GUIDANCE TRENDING TOWARD MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING NEAR
DAYBREAK. CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING BECOMING THICKER WITH TIME. GUIDANCE NOW SHOWING COPIOUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING BY DAYBREAK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. GUIDANCE IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN ON THE
FLIGHT CATEGORY OF DEVELOPING CIGS, BUT LOW VFR IS ALMOST CERTAIN
WITH MVFR LIKELY FOR THE SC SITES AND KAVL. HAVE GONE WITH MVFR IN
THESE LOCATIONS. KEPT KCLT AND KHKY LOW VFR FOR NOW, BUT OF THE TWO,
KCLT HAS A HIGHER PROBABILITY TO SEE MVFR. MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE ONCE THEY SET IN FOR ALL BUT KAVL WHERE LOW VFR RETURNS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISH THIS EVENING
THEN RETURN NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. LLWS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT KAVL
BUT CHANCE TOO LOW FOR THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: NOCTURNAL FOG/STRATUS CAN'T BE RULED OUT NEAR DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MAY RETURN TO THE AREA BY
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY BUT MORE LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 02-19
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 72 2014 16 2015 54 1951 3 2015
KCLT 76 2014 26 2015 55 1961 8 1958
1939
KGSP 75 2014 30 2015 55 1961 9 1958
1916 1900 1900
1911
RECORDS FOR 02-20
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 75 1939 26 1908 54 2018 4 2015
KCLT 77 2014 31 2015 59 1939 7 2015
1890
KGSP 75 2014 33 2015 57 1939 9 2015
1986
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JDL/RWH
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