844
FXUS62 KGSP 180558
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1258 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. GUSTY WINDS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY, A FEW
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
2. ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.
3. RAINFALL RETURNS TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN USHERS
IN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: GUSTY WINDS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY, A
FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A FLAT AND BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MEXICO INTO THE GULF WITH
AN ACTIVE JET STREAM EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE
APPALACHIANS. A LEAD SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY TRANSLATING ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
THROUGH THE MIDWEST IN ITS WAKE. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY FROM
THIS WAVE WILL BE DEFLECTED NORTH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH HEIGHTS
WITHIN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW DRAPED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE CAROLINAS.
THUS, WHILE THE REGION WILL BE ENTRENCHED WITHIN AN EXPANSIVE WARM
SECTOR, THE MAJORITY OF THE QPF RESPONSE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT. FURTHERMORE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
CAPPED AROUND 800MB AND WILL PRECLUDE DEEPER SHOWER ACTIVITY OUTSIDE
OF THE IMMEDIATE TENNESSEE BORDER AREA. WITH TIME, AT LEAST A FEW
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHALLOW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS THE FAR WESTERN
FOOTHILLS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH DEEP MIXING UP TO 800MB. HIGHS WILL RUN FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 60S WITH A FEW READINGS AROUND 70 POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAVANNAH
VALLEY. ROBUST WIND PROFILES WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER WILL ALSO
SUPPORT EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSPORT TO THE SURFACE. 25-30MPH GUSTS
WILL BE COMMON.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS WEEK.
LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEPICT BROAD, FLAT RIDGING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH EMBEDDED LOBES OF
VORT ENERGY MAKING TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE, SOME RAINFALL IS STILL FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, BUT WITH THE BETTER FORCING NOW
DISPLACED A LITTLE TO OUR NORTH, QPF RESPONSE APPEARS MUTED ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA...AND LATER THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES,
WITH THE BULK OF WHAT RAIN DOES FALL DOING SO DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY, WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL CLIMB SOME 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE MID OR EVEN UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY
BREAKING RECORDS ON FRIDAY ESPECIALLY...THEN TREND BACK TOWARD
NORMAL (OR AT LEAST, NOT AS FAR ABOVE NORMAL) ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: RAINFALL RETURNS TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
THEN USHERS IN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK.
BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE STALLED IN OR JUST
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA, HAVING LOST ITS UPPER-LEVEL STEERING
FLOW...AND AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP THE BOUNDARY SHOULD REACTIVATE
IT AS A WARM FRONT. LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES VARIOUSLY DEPICT THIS AS
ANYTHING FROM WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT, TO A PRONOUNCED UPPER WAVE,
TO FULL-BLOWN CYCLOGENESIS...AND SO QPF RESPONSE VARIES QUITE
A BIT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...BUT AT LEAST SOME RAIN APPEARS
LIKELY, THOUGH TOTALS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. ENSEMBLES ALSO CAN'T
AGREE ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT'S NORTHWARD RETREAT...WHICH WILL
INFLUENCE WHETHER ANY SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP,
AND THUS MODERATE ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE RISK. CERTAINLY CANNOT
RULE OUT AT LEAST SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER CONTINENTAL AIR MASS
WILL WORK INTO THE REGION, BRINGING LOWS 5-10 DEGREES NORMAL SUNDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODIFY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER BY DAYBREAK AND AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPSTATE WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT
KAND/KGMU/KGSP. THESE RESTRICTIONS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR BY THE EVENING HOURS. NO OTHER RESTRICTIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED AT OTHER TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. 20-25KT GUSTS WILL BE COMMON DURING PEAK AFTERNOON MIXING.
GUSTS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH LIGHT WINDS PERSISTING INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.
OUTLOOK: RESTRICTIONS MAY RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS GUIDANCE SHOWS A ROUND OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING. RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MAY RETURN TO THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT CHANCES ARE BETTER OVER THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 02-19
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 72 2014 16 2015 54 1951 3 2015
KCLT 76 2014 26 2015 55 1961 8 1958
1939
KGSP 75 2014 30 2015 55 1961 9 1958
1916 1900 1900
1911
RECORDS FOR 02-20
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 75 1939 26 1908 54 2018 4 2015
KCLT 77 2014 31 2015 59 1939 7 2015
1890
KGSP 75 2014 33 2015 57 1939 9 2015
1986
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MPR/TW
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