794
FXUS62 KGSP 181830
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
130 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
HAS INCREASED.
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN NOW APPEARS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS RETURN THURSDAY.
2. ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
3. MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL RETURNS TO OUR AREA OVER THE WEEKEND,
WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS RETURN THURSDAY.
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OFF SHORE. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW OVER OR
NEAR OUR AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH DROPS SOUTH TONIGHT BUT
STALLS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT ON THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MOISTURE ISN'T VERY
DEEP, BUT WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH FOR INCREASING CLOUDS. THE WEAK
LIFT, ALONG WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER THE TN BORDER AND
SOUTHERN ESCARPMENT, WILL LEAD TO SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THOSE
AREAS OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. SOME OF THESE COULD BREAK
CONTAINMENT AND SPREAD INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AND NE GA
AND THE UPSTATE. QPF WOULD BE LIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VERY
LIGHT ELSEWHERE. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE, BUT DENSE FOG LOOKS
UNLIKELY. THE GUSTY WINDS TODAY DIMINISH FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS EVENING, BUT RETURN MOST LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY AS
MIXING BEGINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
RECORDS ON THURSDAY BUT ARE DEPENDENT ON PRECIP AND ANY THINNING OF
THE CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT BROAD, FLAT UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH EMBEDDED LOBES OF MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
TRACKING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS THRU LATE FRIDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY
MORNING, BUT WITH THE BETTER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE DIS-
PLACED JUST TO OUR NORTH, THE QPF RESPONSE IS STILL MINIMAL
ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA. FAR WESTERN NC WILL LIKELY RECEIVE THE
MOST QPF. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT ROUGHLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL REACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 70S OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS, POSSIBLY BREAKING
RECORDS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON SAT BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE FEB.
KEY MESSAGE 3: MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL RETURNS TO OUR AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND, WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST
SOUTH OF OUR FCST AREA HAVING LOST ITS UPPER-LEVEL STEERING FLOW.
ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP THE BOUNDARY REACTIVATING IT AS A
WARM FRONT. THE LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT VARIOUS
SYNOPTIC FEATURES DEVELOPING FROM THIS BOUNDARY, RESULTING IN A
LARGE SPREAD WRT QPF RESPONSE ACROSS OUR AREA. AT LEAST SOME RAIN
APPEARS LIKELY, WITH FAR WESTERN NC, UPSTATE SC, AND NE GEORGIA
EXPECTED TO GET MORE PRECIP THAN THE NC PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS. THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY'S NORTHWARD RETREAT, WHICH WILL INFLUENCE
WHETHER ANY SFC-BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS, STILL REMAINS FAIRLY
UNCERTAIN. WE CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER CONTINENTAL AIR MASS
WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY, LOWERING TEMPERATURES THRU
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO TREND BACK NEAR
NORMAL. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH SOME LOCATIONS HAVING NO STRATOCU AND OTHERS MVFR TO
LOW VFR STRATOCU. EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOW VFR DEVELOPING BY EVENING AS MOISTURE BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD.
GUIDANCE AGREES THAT CIGS SHOULD FALL TO MVFR BY LATE EVENING WITH
IFR CIGS LIKELY FOR THE SC SITES BEFORE DAYBREAK. IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
AT THE NC SITES. FOG IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN, BUT MVFR SEEMS
LIKELY AT THE SC SITES AND KAVL, AND POSSIBLE AT KCLT AND KHKY.
SPOTTY SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE BY MORNING AS WELL WITH BETTER
CHANCES AT KAVL AND KHKY. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30S THERE WITH LOWER VSBY
AND CIGS. VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH CIGS RISING BACK
TO MVFR AT SOME POINT BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST ONE CHANCE GROUP FOR NOW, BUT MVFR CIGS COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL
LATER.
OUTLOOK: RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MAY RETURN TO THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BUT CHANCES ARE BETTER OVER THE WEEKEND.
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD END MONDAY BUT GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 02-19
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 72 2014 16 2015 54 1951 3 2015
KCLT 76 2014 26 2015 55 1961 8 1958
1939
KGSP 75 2014 30 2015 55 1961 9 1958
1916 1900 1900
1911
RECORDS FOR 02-20
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 75 1939 26 1908 54 2018 4 2015
KCLT 77 2014 31 2015 59 1939 7 2015
1890
KGSP 75 2014 33 2015 57 1939 9 2015
1986
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JPT/RWH
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