898
FXUS62 KGSP 190002
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
702 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS
RETURNING THURSDAY.
2. ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
3. MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL RETURNS TO OUR AREA OVER THE WEEKEND,
WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
GUSTY WINDS RETURNING THURSDAY.
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OFFSHORE. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW OVER OR
NEAR OUR AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH DROPS SOUTH TONIGHT BUT
STALLS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT ON THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MOISTURE ISN'T VERY
DEEP, BUT WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH FOR INCREASING CLOUDS. THE WEAK
LIFT, ALONG WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER THE TN BORDER AND
SOUTHERN ESCARPMENT, WILL LEAD TO SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IN THOSE AREAS
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE RAIN COULD BREAK
CONTAINMENT AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
QPF WILL REMAIN LIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP THROUGH DAYBREAK,
POSSIBLY STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS. GUSTY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS RETURN FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY AS
DAYTIME MIXING DEVELOPS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR THE NORMAL HIGHS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF RECORDS ON THURSDAY BUT ARE DEPENDENT ON RAIN AS WELL AS HOW MUCH
CLOUD COVER THINS DURING PEAK HEATING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT BROAD, FLAT UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH EMBEDDED LOBES OF MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
TRACKING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS THRU LATE FRIDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY
MORNING, BUT WITH THE BETTER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE DIS-
PLACED JUST TO OUR NORTH, THE QPF RESPONSE IS STILL MINIMAL
ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA. FAR WESTERN NC WILL LIKELY RECEIVE THE
MOST QPF. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT ROUGHLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL REACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 70S OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS, POSSIBLY BREAKING
RECORDS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON SAT BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE FEB.
KEY MESSAGE 3: MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL RETURNS TO OUR AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND, WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST
SOUTH OF OUR FCST AREA HAVING LOST ITS UPPER-LEVEL STEERING FLOW.
ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP THE BOUNDARY REACTIVATING IT AS A
WARM FRONT. THE LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT VARIOUS
SYNOPTIC FEATURES DEVELOPING FROM THIS BOUNDARY, RESULTING IN A
LARGE SPREAD WRT QPF RESPONSE ACROSS OUR AREA. AT LEAST SOME RAIN
APPEARS LIKELY, WITH FAR WESTERN NC, UPSTATE SC, AND NE GEORGIA
EXPECTED TO GET MORE PRECIP THAN THE NC PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS. THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY'S NORTHWARD RETREAT, WHICH WILL INFLUENCE
WHETHER ANY SFC-BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS, STILL REMAINS FAIRLY
UNCERTAIN. WE CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER CONTINENTAL AIR MASS
WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY, LOWERING TEMPERATURES THRU
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO TREND BACK NEAR
NORMAL. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR LINGERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE CIGS
AND VSBYS GRADUALLY DETERIORATE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
THURSDAY. CIGS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR TO IFR ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
TERMINALS AND IFR TO LIFR ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA TERMINALS. VSBYS
SHOULD ONLY DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AROUND DAYBREAK, ALTHOUGH KCLT MAY
NOT SEE VSBY RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP. VSBYS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY 14-
15Z, ALTHOUGH MVFR VSBYS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER AT KHKY. PER USUAL,
CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL LAST LONGER, LIKELY NOT LIFTING UNTIL MID-
AFTERNOON THURSDAY. KHKY COULD ALSO SEE CIG RESTRICTIONS LAST
LONGER, POSSIBLY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VFR SHOULD RETURN
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE 00Z TAF
PERIOD. SPOTTY -RA WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BUT CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER -RA WILL TRACK DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL
REMAINS LOW. HOWEVER, SINCE KAVL HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE -RA
DEVELOP, MAINTAINED THE PROB30. OPTED TO DROP THE PROB30 FOR KHKY AS
THE 18Z CAMS DEPICTED MOST OF THE ACTIVITY AVOIDING THE TERMINAL.
WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN S/SW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH GUSTS
RETURNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, GUSTS WILL BE LIGHTER
COMPARED TO TODAY.
OUTLOOK: RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MAY RETURN TO THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BUT BETTER CHANCES RETURN OVER THE
WEEKEND. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD END MONDAY BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 02-19
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 72 2014 16 2015 54 1951 3 2015
KCLT 76 2014 26 2015 55 1961 8 1958
1939
KGSP 75 2014 30 2015 55 1961 9 1958
1916 1900 1900
1911
RECORDS FOR 02-20
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 75 1939 26 1908 54 2018 4 2015
KCLT 77 2014 31 2015 59 1939 7 2015
1890
KGSP 75 2014 33 2015 57 1939 9 2015
1986
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR/JPT/RWH
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