195
FXUS62 KGSP 190512
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1212 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD WARM
HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND WIDESPREAD RAIN ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH
MORE GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
2. RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FRIDAY ALONGSIDE INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES.
3. A COMPLEX WEEKEND SETUP BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY, AND USHERS IN MUCH COLDER AIR FOR THE START OF
THE NEW WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG
WITH MORE GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH A BELT OF
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE
APPALACHIANS ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE GULF. A
LEAD SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BACKGROUND FLOW
REGIME WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFT INTO THE
MIDWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO LIFT
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP MUCH
OF THE REGION ENTRENCHED IN AN OPEN WARM SECTOR. PRECIPITATION WILL
BLOSSOM ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT DRAPED JUST NORTH OF THE
OHIO VALLEY WHERE HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL BE MAXIMIZED. FARTHER SOUTH, HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE MUCH MORE
NEBULOUS WITH ONLY SUBTLE FORCING TO INSTIGATE SHOWERS. NONETHELESS,
AT LEAST A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS MORNING, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR
AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WARM
WITH HIGHS TODAY SURGING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. SOLID WIND
PROFILES WITHIN A FAIRLY DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO
SUPPORT FREQUENT WIND GUSTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT, A
TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY
MORNING. A BAND OF BROKEN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMPING UP ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE TENNESSEE BORDER.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FRIDAY ALONGSIDE
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
OPERATIONAL MODELS VARIOUSLY DEPICT RIPPLES OF Z500 VORT
ENERGY MAKING TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER QUASI-ZONAL UPPER PATTERN.
THAT'LL MANIFEST IN THE LOW LEVELS AS CONTINUING WAA THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE HI-RES GUIDANCE NOW STRETCHES OUT
FAR ENOUGH TO DEPICT A LOOSELY-ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS CROSSING
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD
SOMEWHAT HINDER DIURNAL HEATING, THE RESULT OF SUSTAINED WAA AND
DEEP LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
SOME 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. WE CAN EXPECT
TO FLIRT WITH DAILY RECORDS AT ALL THREE CLIMATE SITES, UNLESS
RAINFALL BECOMES SIGNIFICANTLY MORE WIDESPREAD AND PROLONGED THAN
IS CURRENTLY DEPICTED IN THE CAMS.
A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS DEPICTED IN THE BULK OF GUIDANCE
ARRIVING LATE FRIDAY EVENING, RESULTING IN THE CESSATION OF
LOW-LEVEL WAA AND THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT BY
MID-AFTERNOON. NOTABLY LOWER-THETA-E AIR WILL FILTER IN THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THE BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE IN OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE UPSTATE BY FRIDAY NIGHT, AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER FLOW. THIS WILL CURB TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT, AS WELL
AS BRING A SHORT-LIVED END TO RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A COMPLEX WEEKEND SETUP BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY, AND USHERS IN MUCH COLDER AIR FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK.
AS MORE PRONOUNCED DPVA FORCING ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND
INTERACTS WITH THE PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE LAID OUT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA, A SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP WITHIN AN AREA OF
STRONG MOIST UPGLIDE, RESULTING IN A RESURGENCE IN RAINFALL AND
THICK CLOUD COVER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND PERSISTING FOR MOST
OF THE DAY. ENSEMBLES ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON AN
EARLY-MORNING ONSET, WHICH CERTAINLY POINTS TO LESS CHANCE OF ANY
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING - CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT THE SETUP WILL BE MORE OF A HYBRID CAD-LIKE CONFIGURATION,
WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH, AND RAINFALL
ONLY STABILIZING/REINFORCING THE SURFACE WEDGE LOCATED OVER US.
INDEED, NONE OF THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE DEPICTS ANY SBCAPE OVER
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES, AND THE LATEST LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES DEPICT A
<10% CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER EVEN OUR SOUTHERNMOST
COUNTIES.
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS LIKELY SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AS THE UPPER PATTERN RAPIDLY EVOLVES INTO A PRONOUNCED
LONGWAVE TROUGH SPANNING THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS...WITH
THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW LIFTING UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE, STRONG
LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY, USHERING
IN A MUCH COLDER, MUCH DRIER CP AIR MASS THAT WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY, MONDAY,
AND TUESDAY NIGHTS COULD FALL WELL INTO THE 20S AMID EXCELLENT
RADIATIVE COOLING. THEREAFTER, THE AIR MASS WILL STEADILY MODIFY,
AND TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS ARE COMMON AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD, BUT WON'T PERSIST FOR MUCH LONGER. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER ACROSS THE AREA WITH A WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS EVENT DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MOST
CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR, BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE.
IN ADDITION, PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
COMPARED TO CEILINGS. A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE I-85 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND COULD BRING BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
THEREAFTER, CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
ANOTHER BOUT OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. GUSTS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
AND ANOTHER BATCH OF LOW STRATUS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP HEADING INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MAY RETURN TO THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BUT BETTER CHANCES RETURN OVER THE
WEEKEND. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD END MONDAY BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 02-19
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 72 2014 16 2015 54 1951 3 2015
KCLT 76 2014 26 2015 55 1961 8 1958
1939
KGSP 75 2014 30 2015 55 1961 9 1958
1916 1900 1900
1911
RECORDS FOR 02-20
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 75 1939 26 1908 54 2018 4 2015
KCLT 77 2014 31 2015 59 1939 7 2015
1890
KGSP 75 2014 33 2015 57 1939 9 2015
1986
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MPR/TW
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