682
FXUS62 KGSP 191743
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1243 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD WARM
HIGHS AND VERY GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT VERY GUSTY WINDS AND NORTHWEST FLOW
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND GUSTS END BY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND GUSTY WINDS RETURN WITH A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
2. A COMPLEX PATTERN WILL BRING CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.
3. WINTER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH VERY GUSTY NW WINDS,
ACCUMULATING NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS, AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SPOTTY SHOWERS AND GUSTS END BY EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS RETURN WITH A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
SHOWERS END AND LOW CLOUDS MOSTLY SCATTER OUT BY EVENING. GUSTY SW
WINDS DIMINISH FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY EVENING AS WELL.
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN AND FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
CROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO, BUT ANY STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. MODERATE
QPF WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS, BUT NO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN EXPECTED. SHOWERS MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WINDS RETURN AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT SHOULD REMAIN
SHY OF WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN THE
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, ANY
COLDER AIR WILL BE DELAYED WITH MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE.
THIS WITH PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUN, HIGHS WILL MAKE RUN AT RECORDS
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. THEY WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT SHOULD FALL SHORT OF RECORDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COMPLEX PATTERN WILL BRING CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.
AN INITIALLY BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND, AS A SERIES
OF SPEED MAXIMA EJECT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
LEADING EDGE OF A FRONTAL ZONE IS FORECAST TO LOITER NEAR THE
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE CWA THROUGH SAT. IN RESPONSE TO ONE ROUND
OF HEIGHT FALLS MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS, LIFT NEAR THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT,
WARRANTING AN INCREASE OF POPS TO 60-80% ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SE HALF
OF THE CWA...WITH SOLID CHANCES TO THE NW. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ON SAT...AND CAN'T RULE
OUT SOME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY BEING REALIZED DEPENDING UPON
WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 70+
KTS EXPECTED, THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER...ALTHOUGH THIS THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL AT MOST.
A LULL IN THE PRECIP APPEARS LIKELY LATER SAT...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN, OWING TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THE GFS...AN TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CANADIAN SUGGEST SOME
FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSE, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA, WHILE OTHER GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE PAINTS A
DRIER SCENARIO, WITH WEAKER CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING A LITTLE TOO FAR
SOUTH AND EAST. SIGNALS IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST TOKEN CHANCE
POPS TO BE THE PATH OF LEAST REGRET SAT NIGHT. OVERALL TEMPORAL
TRENDS IN GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TOWARD LOWER QPF...AND OUR LATEST
FORECAST FEATURES WEEKEND TOTAL QPF MOSTLY IN THE 0.25-0.33" RANGE.
KEY MESSAGE 3: WINTER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH VERY GUSTY NW
WINDS, ACCUMULATING NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS, AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIMES SLAMS INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY SUNDAY. VERY GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL SET UP WITHIN THIS REGIME, WITH AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY-LEVEL
WINDS LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET IN THE USUAL DOWNSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE
EASTERN ESCARPMENT OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, THE STRONG NW FLOW INTERACTING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
FROM THE TN VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL
RESULT IN UPSLOPE SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY, WHEN TEMPS WILL MOSTLY
BE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. INGREDIENTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BEST ALIGNED LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY, AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO ONE LAST SPEED MAX THAT IS FORECAST
TO DIG WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS SUN NIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN THE MOIST
LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO COOL TO AS LOW AS -20 DURING THIS TIME, WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN EFFICIENT PRODUCTION OF DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTAL
GROWTH...AND AT LEAST MINOR ACCUMS OF SNOW APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET
IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER.
COLD ADVECTION WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS OF 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, AND MORE LIKE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY RISE THROUGH MID-
WEEK, WITH THE AIR MASS STEADILY MODIFYING AS A WARM SECTOR BECOMES
ESTABLISHED IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. AS A RESULT,
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
THURSDAY. POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
INCREASE TO SOLID CHANCE BY EARLY THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: SPOTTY SHOWERS AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE
MOVING NORTHWEST OUT OF THE AREA WITH VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES BY
20Z. GUSTY SW WINDS DIMINISH BY EVENING. MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS RETURNING AND IFR NEAR
DAYBREAK. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HAVE
PROB30S WITH LOWER RESTRICTIONS FOR THOSE. GUSTY SW WINDS RETURN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER FROPA WITH VFR
AND STRONGER WSW, NW AT KAVL, GUSTS.
OUTLOOK: RAIN CHANCES RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD END MONDAY FOR ALL
BUT KAVL WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 02-20
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 75 1939 26 1908 54 2018 4 2015
KCLT 77 2014 31 2015 59 1939 7 2015
1890
KGSP 75 2014 33 2015 57 1939 9 2015
1986
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JDL/RWH
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