290
FXUS62 KGSP 201153
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
653 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR VERY GUSTY WINDS AND NORTHWEST FLOW
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING, WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE LIGHTER WINDS RETURN TONIGHT.
2. RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS
AND MINOR TO NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
3. A BRIEF RETURN OF WINTER WITH GUSTY NW WINDS, SNOW FOR PORTIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COLD FRONT BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING,
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE LIGHTER WINDS
RETURN TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW TWO ROUNDS OF RAIN TO IMPACT THE AREA; THE FIRST
ROUND WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AND THE SECOND ROUND WILL OCCUR
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. BRIEF DRYING WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING IN-BETWEEN THE TWO ROUNDS OF
RAIN. COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME RUMBLES OF EMBEDDED THUNDER WITHIN
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS, AS THE 00Z CAMS SHOW 200-500
J/KG OF SBCAPE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING FLASHES HAVE BEEN NOTED WITHIN THE LINE IN EAST TN THIS
MORNING, SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE INCLUDED OVER THE
MTNS. SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS UNLIKELY, BUT SOME STRONG GUSTS HAVE
BEEN NOTED OVER EAST TN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LINE. HOWEVER,
SBCAPE WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT SO THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED
WITH THE SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS TONIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL ALSO KEEP GUSTY WINDS AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY.
WITH A 40-45 KT 850 MB JET TRACKING OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING,
BLENDED IN SOME THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE FOR WIND GUSTS. GUSTS WILL
RANGE FROM 20-35 MPH FOR ELEVATIONS AT/BELOW 3,500 FT AND 35-45
MPH FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4,000 FT. HIGHER RIDGE TOPS, GENERALLY
AT/ABOVE 5,000 FT, COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. SINCE ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS (WHICH ARE >46 MPH) ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS
OF 4,000 FT TO 5,000 FT, A WIND ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT
THIS TIME. GUSTS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. GUSTS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF TONIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RECORD BREAKING HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, MAINLY
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. BOTH KCLT AND KGSP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BREAK THEIR RECORD HIGHS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS RAIN EXITS TO
THE EAST THIS MORNING AND AS CLOUD COVER THINS BEHIND THE FRONT
DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS AND MINOR TO NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
THE GENERAL PATTERN GOING INTO SATURDAY HAS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE CWA SITS ON THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE, LEAVING WEAK FORCING FOR ANY
TRULY MENTIONABLE WEATHER. AT THIS TIME, GUIDANCE DOES STRIKE UP A
FEW SHOWERS THAT PASS QUICKLY OVER MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY.
CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA, BUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
IN THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS AS POPS CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER IN THE 60-80% RANGE.
HOWEVER, QPF RESPONSE LOOKS MINIMAL WITH A 40-50% CHANCE OF AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85 RECEIVING A RAINFALL TOTAL OF AT LEAST
0.25". A FEW AREAS COULD RECEIVE HIGHER AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY IF ANY
INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM AND WELL ABOVE
FREEZING, SO P-TYPE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL RAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A BRIEF RETURN OF WINTER WITH GUSTY NW WINDS,
SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
BY SUNDAY, A BRIEF PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MAKES A RUN FOR THE CWA, BRINGING VERY GUSTY WINDS
AND NW FLOW SNOW FOR THE TN/NC BORDER. ALOFT, THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
MOVES EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH AND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THE LOW AND
DRIVES IT NORTHEAST, BRINGING RAIN TO MOST OF THE AREA, WITH SNOW AT
THE USUAL PEAKS OF THE TN/NC BORDER ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A 30-40%
CHANCE OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN THESE LOCATIONS,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE USUAL AREAS OF AVERY AND SWAIN COUNTIES. TWO
SHOTS OF NW FLOW SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. THE FIRST IS AT THE ONSET OF THE
COLD FRONT LATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF LULL BEFORE PICKING
UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA
BY EARLY ON MONDAY. ASIDE FROM SNOW, QPF FOR RAINFALL IS TRENDING
LOWER, WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.25". OVERALL, THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BRING A FEW ROUNDS OF NW FLOW SNOW AND A SMALL AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL, WITH MINOR IMPACTS EXPECTED. THE MAIN IMPACTS LOOK TO BE
SLICK ROADS WHERE SNOW FALLS. ADDITIONALLY, WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOK TO BE VERY GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE
TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE CWA. THE HIGHER PEAKS HAVE A HIGHER
PROBABILITY (80-90%) OF WINDS GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM, A STRONG CP AIRMASS SPILLS EASTWARD, USHERING IN
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS. MONDAY HIGHS LOOK TO BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL. AT THIS TIME, WINDS COULD CREATE WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE ANY COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: WATCHING A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS MOVING OVER THE BORDER BETWEEN TN AND
NC AT THIS HOUR. WILL EXTRAPOLATE FOR THE TIMING OF THIS BAND
RELATIVE TO ALL THE TERMINALS. AT THIS POINT, A TEMPO SEEMS
PRUDENT FOR THE ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS, AND WILL TRY TO FINE
TUNE THE TIMING DOWN TO A 2 OR 3 HOUR WINDOW. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE
MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. WIND DIRECTION EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
WILL REMAIN SW THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE TOGGLING MORE W/WSW
THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN
S/SW THROUGH DAYBREAKBEFORE TURNING NW BEHIND THE FRONT ~14-16Z.
GUSTY WINDS RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING, RANGING FROM 18-25+ KTS.
OUTLOOK: RAIN CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS RETURN THIS
WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD END MONDAY FOR ALL BUT KAVL WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 02-20
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 75 1939 26 1908 54 2018 4 2015
KCLT 77 2014 31 2015 59 1939 7 2015
1890
KGSP 75 2014 33 2015 57 1939 9 2015
1986
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR/CP/PM
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