401
FXUS62 KGSP 210034
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
734 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AND PRECIP AMOUNTS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS IS IMPROVING,
WARRANTING INCREASES IN POPS AND ACCUMULATION FORECASTS OVER THE NC
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING.
2. TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS AND MINOR TO NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
3. A BRIEF RETURN OF WINTER WITH VERY GUSTY NW WINDS, ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
4. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR-TO-ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A COLD FRONT BRINGING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS NEXT FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THRU THE AREA, USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR
TO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WITH LIMITED CAA. TEMPS
ARE SPIKING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
(WHICH SHOULD BREAK RECORD HIGHS FOR GSP AND CLT). GUSTY WINDS
WILL LINGER THRU THE AFTN, WITH GUSTS OF 50-60+ MPH ON THE HIGHEST
PEAKS. BUT SUB-ADVISORY-LEVEL OF MAINLY 20-30 MPH ACROSS THE LOWER
VALLEYS AND THE PIEDMONT. RH VALUES ARE ALREADY FALLING BELOW
25% IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF SOME OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY. THIS WOULD NORMALLY PRODUCE AN INCREASED FIRE
DANGER. FORTUNATELY, MOST AREAS RECEIVED A WETTING RAIN TO LIMIT
WILDFIRE POTENTIAL. WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND RH WILL
RECOVER. LOWS WILL BE 15-20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL UNDER INCREASING
CLOUDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS AND MINOR TO NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE MIDWEST
WILL CAUSE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A
SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
STATES TONIGHT, WHICH WILL BACK THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SW
AND ADVECT MOISTURE ATOP THE FRONTAL ZONE. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
WETTER WITH THIS WAVE LATE TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY MORNING, SOLID
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA, HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH. THE HIGH-RES
MODELS AGREE ON FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH TEMPS SO
WARM, NO WINTRY PRECIP TYPES ARE EXPECTED. QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT,
DUE TO WEAK FORCING, DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER TO OVERCOME, AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRACK EAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND START DEEPENING AS A COASTAL LOW NEAR THE OUTER BANKS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS TAPERING
OFF/EXITING EAST BY EARLY AFTN. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME CLEARING
SKIES, BUT CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ALONG AND SOUTHEAST
OF I-85. HIGHS SHOULD NOT BE NEARLY AS WARM AS THE LAST COUPLE DAYS,
BUT STILL 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
A VERY STRONG SPEED MAX IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIG FROM THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS INTO THE TN VALLEY SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY,
RESULTING IN CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL STATES. AS A
RESULT, PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, WITH POPS
RETURNING TO LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE STRONGER FORCING
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH=>EAST OF THE AREA, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE TAME WITH THIS SHORT-DURATION EVENT...
GENERALLY IN THE 0.10-0.33" RANGE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
SAT NIGHT, BUT MUCH COOLER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS AS COLD ADVECTION
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ON THE WEST SIDE OF A DEEPENING COASTAL
CYCLONE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A BRIEF RETURN OF WINTER WITH VERY GUSTY NW WINDS,
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BOMB OFF THE NC AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY,
WITH STRONG NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW/COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADING OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY, RESULTING IN VERY GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS. AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPE OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGHOUT SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
AS A MOUNTAIN WAVE PATTERN MATURES COINCIDENT WITH DEEPENING OF
THE NORTHWEST FLOW. EVEN OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS, GUSTS OF 25-35
MPH APPEAR LIKELY INTO THE PIEDMONT.
MEANWHILE, PRECIP ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYNOPTIC
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
TO SNOW EARLY SUNDAY AS FREEZING LEVELS PLUMMET ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. SYNOPTICALLY-FORCED PRECIP WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS, AS NW FLOW INTERACTS WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS. INGREDIENTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL SUNDAY MORNING, BUT WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MOIST LAYER DEEPENS
IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX DIGGING WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP
OF THE MOIST LAYER COOL TO -15C AND BELOW...SUGGESTING EFFICIENT
DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AND HIGH SNOW:LIQUID RATIOS. THIS
SITUATION LINGERS INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE INGREDIENTS GRADUALLY
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. BOTH THE SETUP AND THE DURATION OF THIS EVENT ARE
INDICATIVE OF AT LEAST A SOLID WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT,
WITH WIDESPREAD 1-4" SNOWFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 6+ INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE TN/NC
BORDER...WITH A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA
ABOVE 3500'. WE DON'T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE FOR WATCH CONSIDERATION
AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE ARE LIKELY MORE THAN 48 HOURS
AWAY FROM POSSIBLY REACHING CRITERIA, BUT THIS WILL CERTAINLY NEED
TO BE ENTERTAINED OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
OTHERWISE, TEMPS WILL RETURN TO BELOW-NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH THE DEPARTURE FROM CLIMO BEING IN THE 10-15 DEGREE
RANGE MON AND MON NIGHT. LINGERING VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY
YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME SUB-ZERO READINGS LIKELY ABOVE 4000 FEET
OR SO. WIND CHILLS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER MON NIGHT, BUT STILL
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH TERRAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 4: TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR-TO-ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A COLD FRONT BRINGING
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS NEXT FRIDAY.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WITH RISING HEIGHTS, THE LATE
WINTER SUN STEADILY MODIFYING THE AIR MASS, AND A RETURN OF SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
BY WED AND MORE OR LESS LINGER WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ONCE THE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS
TAPER OFF EARLY TUESDAY, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY UNTIL
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THU/THU NIGHT. ASSOCIATED FRONT AND PRECIP BAND IS LIKELY TO IMPACT
THE FORECAST AREA LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ESPECIALLY WARM OR HUMID, BUT
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE FRONTAL BAND.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND LOSE
THEIR GUSTS THIS EVENING AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT, WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS
LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FCST AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY VFR DESPITE THE
PRECIP, BUT THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VISBY AND/OR
CIGS THRU THE MORNING. PRECIP SHOULD MOVE THE EAST OF OUR AREA
BY 17 OR 18Z SATURDAY, HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SW JUST AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. AFTER THE WINDS CALM DOWN THIS
EVENING, THEY SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (IE, 5 KTS OR LESS) THRU THE
REST OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. THEY WILL LIKELY BE VRB AT TIMES,
BUT SHOULD FAVOR A S TO SE DIRECTION SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING.
AT KAVL, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND FAVOR A NWLY DIRECTION
OVERNIGHT AND THRU THE MORNING, AND A MORE NLY DIRECTION
TOMORROW AFTN/EVENING.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS RETURNS SAT NIGHT THRU SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS
RETURN SUNDAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT, WITH ANY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY
CLEARING OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL BUT KAVL WHERE LOW
CLOUDS MAY LINGER.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK/JDL/JPT
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